AVLNAvalyn Pharma Inc. Common StockHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.71 · now $34.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVLN has typically landed between $29.31 and $47.53 — a range of −15.6% to +36.9% from the issuance price $34.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

75 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.31worst · -15.6%$47.53best · +36.9%
  • now $34.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.41 (+4.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.74–$40.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.31–$47.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 75 windows spanning 2026-04-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-05-01−13.8%−13.8%+3.3%
2026-06-22−12.9%−22.1%+0.0%
2026-08-14−12.7%−14.5%+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-16+52.8%+0.0%+52.8%
2026-07-27+38.3%+0.0%+42.1%
2026-07-20+35.7%−3.5%+37.1%

75 overlapping windows · 2026-04-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$39$262026-05-01: 4 insider purchases, $25.0M — Novo Holdings A/S, SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, Carroll Jill …2026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $25.0M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Novo Holdings A/S — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same daydirector Carroll Jill — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same daytenPercentOwner SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerPurchase555,555 @ $18.00$10.0M+16.7% of holding−19.2%not yet — horizon still open3,883,289Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase277,778 @ $18.00$5.0M+14.6% of holding−19.2%not yet — horizon still open2,186,562Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Carroll JilldirectorPurchase277,778 @ $18.00$5.0M+14.6% of holding−19.2%not yet — horizon still open2,186,562Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase277,777 @ $18.00$5.0M+32.9% of holding−19.2%not yet — horizon still open1,122,087Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion1,986,3690Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion25,899,2840Form 4
2026-05-01Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (Cayman) II L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion4,060,2590Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion5,587,6030Form 4
2026-05-01Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (Cayman) II L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion20,482,2890Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion12,558,0810Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion18,000,0000Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion727,585727,585Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion727,585727,585Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion872,8681,680,744Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion225,8431,906,587Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion377,9482,284,535Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion727,5850Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion80,2910Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion872,8680Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion225,8430Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion377,9480Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion3,327,7343,327,734Form 4
2026-05-01Carroll JilldirectorConversion1,419,2981,419,298Form 4
2026-05-01Carroll JilldirectorConversion489,4861,908,784Form 4
2026-05-01Carroll JilldirectorConversion27,309,7190Form 4
2026-05-01Carroll JilldirectorConversion9,418,5610Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion1,419,2981,419,298Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion489,4861,908,784Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion80,291807,876Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion80,291807,876Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion872,8681,680,744Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion225,8431,906,587Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion377,9482,284,535Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion727,5850Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion80,2910Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion872,8680Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion225,8430Form 4
2026-05-01FMR LLCotherConversion377,9480Form 4
2026-05-01Novo Holdings A/StenPercentOwnerConversion3,327,7343,327,734Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion489,486844,310Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion27,309,7190Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion9,418,5610Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion6,827,4290Form 4
2026-05-01SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion9,418,5600Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.