ATGE · TickerCove

ATGEAdtalem Global Education Inc.as of 2026-08-21

Horizon

Issued 2026-08-21 at $128.22 · now $128.22 (2026-08-12, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-21 close, ATGE has typically landed between $107.69 and $155.85 — a range of −16.0% to +21.5% from the issuance price $128.22.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,580 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-03-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,405 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-21 issuance close ($128.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-21, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$128.22 · 60% of range

$89.36 low$154.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-12 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,405 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.3%

typical move · IQR 13.9%

−16.0%worst (p90)+21.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ATGE has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-21 close of $128.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $128.22 (+0.0%)
typical $131.16 (+2.3%)
middle 50% $122.23–$140.09
90% range $107.69–$155.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,580 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-12. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-27	−41.8%	−41.9%	+0.1%
2012-07-05	−41.7%	−41.7%	+0.0%
2025-10-24	−41.6%	−41.6%	+0.7%
3 best
2022-02-23	+51.2%	+0.0%	+51.2%
2022-02-24	+49.5%	+0.0%	+49.5%
2022-02-28	+44.9%	+0.0%	+44.9%

4,580 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-12 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+1.5%

n=18

Feb

37%

−3.2%

n=19

Mar

53%

+2.1%

n=19

Apr

47%

+1.0%

n=19

May

72%

+3.5%

n=18

Jun

50%

+0.6%

n=18

Jul

67%

+2.9%

n=18

Aug

39%

−4.5%

n=18

Sep

56%

+1.3%

n=18

Oct

56%

+1.7%

n=18

Nov

56%

+4.1%

n=18

Dec

67%

+1.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-05	Phelan Kenneth J	director	Purchase	508 @ $98.29	$50K	+2.8% of holding	−4.2%	not yet — horizon still open	18,783	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-04	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $91.85	$92K	+1.0% of holding	+2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	100,445	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-28	WARDELL LISA W	director	Sale	25,477 @ $132.38	$3.4M	−37.0% of holding	+14.0%	−30.6%	43,451	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	WARDELL LISA W	director	Sale	18,392 @ $135.22	$2.5M	−21.1% of holding	+10.4%	−33.9%	68,928	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Sale	944 @ $135.67	$128K	−16.2% of holding	+10.4%	−33.9%	4,901	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21	WARDELL LISA W	director	Sale	12,900 @ $132.90	$1.7M	−12.2% of holding	+2.7%	−33.8%	92,477	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05	BURKE WILLIAM W	director	Sale	2,291 @ $128.35	$294K	−19.7% of holding	−11.1%	−40.9%	9,368	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Sale	966 @ $131.66	$127K	−18.3% of holding	−5.3%	−41.0%	4,300	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $87.21	$87K	+1.0% of holding	+20.9%	+36.7%	99,445	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21	Hrinak Donna J	director	Sale	915 @ $97.92	$90K	−11.4% of holding	+9.8%	+29.9%	7,117	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Hrinak Donna J	director	Sale	4,812 @ $103.26	$497K	−37.5% of holding	+0.6%	+18.1%	8,032	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-06	Hrinak Donna J	director	Sale	4,685 @ $108.68	$509K	−26.7% of holding	−10.1%	+5.9%	12,844	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-06	Betz Michael	officer	Sale	3,500 @ $108.57	$380K	−17.2% of holding	−10.1%	+5.9%	16,881	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-10	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Gift	5,332	445,198	Form 4
2025-11-13	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Withheld for tax	9,204	450,530	Form 4
2025-11-13	WARDELL LISA W	director	Withheld for tax	645	44,251	Form 4
2025-11-13	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Withheld for tax	623	65,806	Form 4
2025-11-13	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Withheld for tax	526	101,364	Form 4
2025-11-13	Betz Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	441	33,286	Form 4
2025-11-13	Kiser Georgette D.	director	Withheld for tax	425	17,481	Form 4
2025-11-13	Vandenbosch Betty M.	director	Withheld for tax	421	2,584	Form 4
2025-11-13	Krehbiel William V	director	Withheld for tax	421	16,303	Form 4
2025-11-13	Liles Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	407	13,551	Form 4
2025-11-13	Phelan Kenneth J	director	Withheld for tax	392	19,836	Form 4
2025-11-13	BURKE WILLIAM W	director	Withheld for tax	390	10,423	Form 4
2025-11-13	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Withheld for tax	361	47,774	Form 4
2025-11-13	Trent Evan	officer	Withheld for tax	355	24,134	Form 4
2025-11-13	Hrinak Donna J	director	Withheld for tax	344	8,218	Form 4
2025-11-13	Herrera Maurice	officer	Withheld for tax	343	20,584	Form 4
2025-11-13	Cox Karen Sue	officer	Withheld for tax	310	33,596	Form 4
2025-11-13	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Withheld for tax	94	5,697	Form 4
2025-11-12	Betz Michael	officer	Award / grant	5,575	33,727	Form 4
2025-11-12	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Award / grant	4,259	66,429	Form 4
2025-11-12	Liles Scott	officer	Award / grant	2,613	13,958	Form 4
2025-11-12	Noel Megan	officer	Award / grant	2,226	2,226	Form 4
2025-11-12	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Award / grant	2,075	48,135	Form 4
2025-11-12	Herrera Maurice	officer	Award / grant	1,750	20,927	Form 4
2025-11-12	Trent Evan	officer	Award / grant	1,673	24,489	Form 4
2025-11-12	Hill Sara	officer	Award / grant	1,673	10,276	Form 4
2025-11-12	Kiser Georgette D.	director	Award / grant	1,445	17,906	Form 4
2025-11-12	Krehbiel William V	director	Award / grant	1,445	16,724	Form 4
2025-11-12	Vandenbosch Betty M.	director	Award / grant	1,445	3,005	Form 4
2025-11-12	O'KEEFE SHARON	director	Award / grant	1,445	16,597	Form 4
2025-11-12	Phelan Kenneth J	director	Award / grant	1,445	20,228	Form 4
2025-11-12	Hrinak Donna J	director	Award / grant	1,445	8,562	Form 4
2025-11-12	WARDELL LISA W	director	Award / grant	1,445	44,896	Form 4
2025-11-12	BURKE WILLIAM W	director	Award / grant	1,445	10,813	Form 4
2025-11-12	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Award / grant	1,445	101,890	Form 4
2025-11-12	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Award / grant	890	5,791	Form 4
2025-11-12	Cox Karen Sue	officer	Award / grant	581	33,906	Form 4
2025-11-10	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,637	62,170	Form 4
2025-10-15	Hill Sara	officer	Withheld for tax	1,310	8,603	Form 4
2025-09-08	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Withheld for tax	12,943	459,734	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

4d remaining

2026-08-2290% elapsed2026-09-21

Logged immutably 2026-08-22; scored automatically on 2026-09-21 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i