AMLXAmylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.63 · now $32.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMLX has typically landed between $22.71 and $49.22 — a range of −30.4% to +50.8% from the issuance price $32.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,154 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-01-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.71worst · -30.4%$49.22best · +50.8%
  • now $32.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.51 (+2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.45–$38.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.71–$49.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,154 windows spanning 2022-01-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-03-04−86.4%−86.4%+0.0%
2024-02-28−86.2%−86.2%+0.0%
2024-02-29−86.1%−86.1%+1.5%
3 best
2022-05-26+151.0%+0.0%+154.2%
2022-05-23+135.2%−6.9%+135.2%
2022-05-25+132.6%−8.5%+132.6%

1,154 overlapping windows · 2022-01-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+7.4%
n=4
Feb
60%
+8.9%
n=5
Mar
20%
−32.4%
n=5
Apr
40%
−2.0%
n=5
May
20%
−5.8%
n=5
Jun
80%
+32.8%
n=5
Jul
100%
+19.1%
n=5
Aug
60%
+15.2%
n=5
Sep
60%
+16.8%
n=5
Oct
75%
+21.2%
n=4
Nov
75%
+1.1%
n=4
Dec
25%
−12.7%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$82026-09-10: 10 insider sales, $2.9M — Cohen Joshua B, Klee Justin B., FRATES JAMES M, Mazzariello Gina …2026-07-10: 1 insider sale, $264K — Mazzariello Gina2026-07-09: 1 insider sale, $275K — Mazzariello Gina2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $51K — Firestone Karen2026-03-02: 5 insider sales, $1.2M — Cohen Joshua B, Klee Justin B., FRATES JAMES M, Mazzariello Gina …2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $48K — Mazzariello Gina2026-02-02: 4 insider sales, $558K — Klee Justin B., Cohen Joshua B, FRATES JAMES M, Mazzariello Gina2026-01-16: 2 insider sales, $55K — Klee Justin B., Cohen Joshua B2026-01-15: 2 insider sales, $3.7M — Cohen Joshua B, Klee Justin B.2026-01-06: 3 insider sales, $208K — Cohen Joshua B, Klee Justin B., FRATES JAMES M2025-12-23: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Firestone Karen2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $94K — Bedrosian Camille L2025-09-30: 7 insider sales, $1.3M — Klee Justin B., Cohen Joshua B, Bedrosian Camille L, FRATES JAMES M …2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $125K — Mazzariello Gina2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $121K — Mazzariello Gina2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $246K2025-09: 7 open-market sales, $1.3M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $101K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $94K2026-01: 7 open-market sales, $4.0M2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $606K2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $51K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $539K2026-09: 10 open-market sales, $2.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bedrosian Camille L — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bedrosian Camille L — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Firestone Karen — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bedrosian Camille L — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Firestone Karen — Purchase on 2025-12-23, filed same daydirector Bedrosian Camille L — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bedrosian Camille L — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRATES JAMES M — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Klee Justin B. — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cohen Joshua B — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mazzariello Gina — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale29,545 @ $32.16$950K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,614,042Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Klee Justin B.directorSale29,025 @ $32.13$933K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,614,495Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale9,768 @ $32.27$315K−4.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open234,667Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Mazzariello GinaofficerSale9,525 @ $32.46$309K−4.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open190,849Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale7,947 @ $32.21$256K−2.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open280,145Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale2,081 @ $33.09$69K−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open278,064Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Klee Justin B.directorSale1,439 @ $33.16$48K−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,613,056Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale1,042 @ $33.23$35K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open233,625Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale919 @ $33.15$30K−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,613,123Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Mazzariello GinaofficerSale11 @ $33.34$367−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open190,838Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-10Mazzariello GinaofficerSale15,000 @ $17.61$264K−7.7% of holding+25.2%not yet — horizon still open179,090Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-09Mazzariello GinaofficerSale15,000 @ $18.32$275K−7.2% of holding+21.3%not yet — horizon still open194,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-21Firestone KarendirectorPurchase3,800 @ $13.51$51K+6.0% of holding+18.5%not yet — horizon still open66,900Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-02Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale29,282 @ $14.48$424K−0.9% of holding−4.2%+108.2%3,334,683Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Klee Justin B.directorSale29,282 @ $14.47$424K−0.9% of holding−4.2%+108.2%3,334,616Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale7,909 @ $14.52$115K−4.6% of holding−4.2%+108.2%165,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Mazzariello GinaofficerSale6,844 @ $14.52$99K−4.8% of holding−4.2%+108.2%134,430Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale6,461 @ $14.58$94K−3.7% of holding−4.2%+108.2%169,295Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Mazzariello GinaofficerSale3,419 @ $14.14$48K−2.4% of holding+2.3%+162.0%141,274Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Klee Justin B.directorSale15,500 @ $14.69$228K−0.5% of holding+4.1%+37.6%3,363,898Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale15,500 @ $14.68$228K−0.5% of holding+4.1%+37.6%3,363,965Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale3,557 @ $14.65$52K−2.0% of holding+4.1%+37.6%173,547Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Mazzariello GinaofficerSale3,448 @ $14.65$51K−2.3% of holding+4.1%+37.6%144,693Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-16Klee Justin B.directorSale1,995 @ $13.89$28K−0.1% of holding−0.6%+20.6%3,379,398Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale1,974 @ $13.83$27K−0.1% of holding−0.6%+20.6%3,379,465Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-15Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale136,193 @ $13.59$1.9M−3.9% of holding+5.9%+21.3%3,378,621Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-15Klee Justin B.directorSale136,193 @ $13.58$1.8M−3.9% of holding+5.9%+21.3%3,378,546Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-06Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale7,715 @ $11.09$86K−0.2% of holding+16.2%+52.3%3,317,632Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06Klee Justin B.directorSale7,715 @ $11.09$86K−0.2% of holding+16.2%+52.3%3,317,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale3,326 @ $11.11$37K−1.8% of holding+16.2%+52.3%177,104Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-23Firestone KarendirectorPurchase8,100 @ $12.45$101K+14.7% of holding+21.2%+38.0%63,100Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale6,580 @ $14.35$94K−3.6% of holding−15.7%−18.8%175,756Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Klee Justin B.directorSale29,775 @ $14.37$428K−0.9% of holding−1.0%+6.7%3,325,501Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale29,733 @ $14.34$426K−0.9% of holding−1.0%+6.7%3,325,547Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale12,039 @ $14.58$176K−6.2% of holding−1.0%+6.7%182,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale10,558 @ $14.65$155K−3.6% of holding−1.0%+6.7%280,430Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Mazzariello GinaofficerSale8,828 @ $14.58$129K−5.6% of holding−1.0%+6.7%148,141Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Klee Justin B.directorSale200 @ $15.01$3K−0.0% of holding−1.0%+6.7%3,325,301Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale200 @ $15.00$3K−0.0% of holding−1.0%+6.7%3,325,347Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13Mazzariello GinaofficerSale15,000 @ $8.34$125K−8.7% of holding+38.4%+63.3%156,969Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Mazzariello GinaofficerSale15,000 @ $8.07$121K−8.0% of holding+42.1%+66.7%171,969Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale21,490 @ $3.47$74K−0.6% of holding+45.2%+264.1%3,355,280Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Klee Justin B.directorSale21,490 @ $3.46$74K−0.6% of holding+45.2%+264.1%3,355,276Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Bedrosian Camille LdirectorSale12,425 @ $3.47$43K−6.0% of holding+45.2%+264.1%194,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31FRATES JAMES MdirectorSale10,896 @ $3.47$38K−3.6% of holding+45.2%+264.1%290,988Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Mazzariello GinaofficerSale9,192 @ $3.48$32K−4.7% of holding+45.2%+264.1%187,969Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20Zeiher Bernhardt GdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $3.70$37Kownership Δ n/a+22.3%+238.4%10,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale4,595 @ $3.17$15K−0.1% of holding+15.0%+222.3%3,196,652Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Klee Justin B.directorSale4,595 @ $3.15$14K−0.1% of holding+15.0%+222.3%3,196,648Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Mazzariello GinaofficerSale1,611 @ $3.12$5K−1.2% of holding+15.0%+222.3%133,310Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Mazzariello GinaofficerSale4,169 @ $3.15$13K−3.0% of holding+29.4%+175.1%134,921Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale11,851 @ $3.47$41K−0.4% of holding+0.7%+133.5%3,201,247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Klee Justin B.directorSale11,855 @ $3.47$41K−0.4% of holding+0.7%+133.5%3,164,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Mazzariello GinaofficerSale3,678 @ $3.49$13K−2.6% of holding+0.7%+133.5%139,090Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Cohen Joshua BdirectorSale7,471 @ $4.05$30K−0.2% of holding−6.2%+82.8%3,213,098Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Klee Justin B.directorSale7,471 @ $4.04$30K−0.2% of holding−6.2%+82.8%3,176,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Firestone KarendirectorOption exercise25,000116,900Form 4
2026-08-31Firestone KarendirectorOption exercise25,00091,900Form 4
2026-08-31Firestone KarendirectorOption exercise25,0000Form 4
2026-08-18Cohen Joshua BdirectorAward / grant60,0393,643,587Form 4
2026-08-18Mazzariello GinaofficerAward / grant21,284200,374Form 4
2026-08-18Klee Justin B.directorAward / grant60,0393,643,520Form 4
2026-08-18FRATES JAMES MdirectorAward / grant22,807244,435Form 4
2026-08-18Bedrosian Camille LdirectorAward / grant22,807288,092Form 4
2026-06-04FONTEYNE PAUL R.directorAward / grant24,37224,372Form 4
2026-06-04MILNE GEORGE M JRdirectorAward / grant24,37224,372Form 4
2026-06-04Quimi DaphnedirectorAward / grant24,37224,372Form 4
2026-06-04Firestone KarendirectorAward / grant24,37224,372Form 4
2026-06-04Zeiher Bernhardt GdirectorAward / grant24,37224,372Form 4
2026-03-05FRATES JAMES MdirectorAward / grant143,985143,985Form 4
2026-03-05Bedrosian Camille LdirectorAward / grant95,990265,285Form 4
2026-03-05FRATES JAMES MdirectorAward / grant95,990261,628Form 4
2026-03-05Klee Justin B.directorAward / grant373,295373,295Form 4
2026-03-05Klee Justin B.directorAward / grant248,8653,583,481Form 4
2026-03-05Bedrosian Camille LdirectorAward / grant143,985143,985Form 4
2026-03-05Mazzariello GinaofficerAward / grant111,990111,990Form 4
2026-03-05Mazzariello GinaofficerAward / grant74,660209,090Form 4
2026-03-05Cohen Joshua BdirectorAward / grant373,295373,295Form 4
2026-03-05Cohen Joshua BdirectorAward / grant248,8653,583,548Form 4
2026-01-16Klee Justin B.directorOption exercise2,8473,381,393Form 4
2026-01-16Cohen Joshua BdirectorOption exercise2,8183,381,439Form 4
2026-01-16Cohen Joshua BdirectorOption exercise2,8180Form 4
2026-01-16Klee Justin B.directorOption exercise2,8470Form 4
2026-01-15Cohen Joshua BdirectorOption exercise197,1823,514,814Form 4
2026-01-15Klee Justin B.directorOption exercise197,1533,514,739Form 4
2026-01-15Klee Justin B.directorOption exercise197,1532,847Form 4
2026-01-15Cohen Joshua BdirectorOption exercise197,1822,818Form 4
2026-01-12MILNE GEORGE M JRdirectorGift17,780812,881Form 4
2025-06-05Quimi DaphnedirectorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-06-05FONTEYNE PAUL R.directorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-06-05MILNE GEORGE M JRdirectorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-06-05Zeiher Bernhardt GdirectorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-06-05Firestone KarendirectorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-05-22Mazzariello GinaofficerGift1,000186,969Form 4
2025-03-06Bedrosian Camille LdirectorAward / grant68,420206,800Form 4
2025-03-06FRATES JAMES MdirectorAward / grant68,420301,884Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.