Issued 2026-09-16 at $254.85 · now $254.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALL has typically landed between $231.58 and $283.74 — a range of −9.1% to +11.3% from the issuance price $254.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($254.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $254.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $254.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $258.31 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $247.17–$269.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $231.58–$283.74
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −47.3% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-30 | −45.4% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-01 | −43.8% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +66.6% | +0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2008-11-19 | +62.8% | −9.0% | +62.8% |
| 2008-12-01 | +51.6% | +0.0% | +51.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$322.04
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$742.60
- Analyst target · range $213.00–$319.00$261.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$254.85
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Rizzo Mario | other | Sale | 43,398 @ $264.17 | $11.5M | −31.3% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Rizzo Mario | other | Sale | 12,827 @ $265.55 | $3.4M | −13.5% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Dugenske John E | officer | Sale | 25,717 @ $268.80 | $6.9M | −66.3% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Dugenske John E | officer | Sale | 3,901 @ $272.05 | $1.1M | −9.1% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Dugenske John E | officer | Sale | 3,378 @ $270.20 | $913K | −7.3% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | REDMOND ANDREA | director | Sale | 2,225 @ $202.91 | $451K | −100.0% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Prindiville Mark Q | other | Sale | 1,550 @ $216.27 | $335K | −5.3% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,558 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Rizzo Mario | other | Sale | 18,578 @ $218.80 | $4.1M | −18.4% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,227 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 9,320 @ $209.48 | $2.0M | −11.0% of holding | +0.1% | +10.6% | 75,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 5,348 @ $208.39 | $1.1M | −5.9% of holding | +0.1% | +10.6% | 85,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 2,139 @ $207.65 | $444K | −2.3% of holding | +0.1% | +10.6% | 90,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 9,284 @ $211.86 | $2.0M | −8.5% of holding | +2.4% | +9.5% | 100,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 6,612 @ $212.66 | $1.4M | −6.6% of holding | +2.4% | +9.5% | 93,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 911 @ $213.50 | $195K | −1.0% of holding | +2.4% | +9.5% | 92,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Merten Jesse E | officer | Sale | 15,893 @ $208.58 | $3.3M | −27.7% of holding | +6.1% | +14.7% | 41,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Merten Jesse E | officer | Sale | 8,811 @ $207.53 | $1.8M | −13.3% of holding | +6.1% | +14.7% | 57,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Merten Jesse E | officer | Sale | 7,982 @ $209.40 | $1.7M | −19.2% of holding | +6.1% | +14.7% | 33,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Merten Jesse E | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $210.44 | $274K | −3.9% of holding | +6.1% | +14.7% | 32,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 8,805 @ $209.92 | $1.8M | −7.0% of holding | −0.1% | +11.3% | 117,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,149 @ $210.72 | $874K | −3.5% of holding | −0.1% | +11.3% | 113,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 3,853 @ $211.50 | $815K | −3.4% of holding | −0.1% | +11.3% | 109,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 13,271 @ $201.06 | $2.7M | −14.5% of holding | +8.7% | +20.6% | 77,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,605 @ $198.77 | $319K | −1.7% of holding | +8.7% | +20.6% | 92,803 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,572 @ $199.57 | $314K | −1.7% of holding | +8.7% | +20.6% | 91,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 359 @ $201.51 | $72K | −0.5% of holding | +8.7% | +20.6% | 77,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,785 @ $205.68 | $984K | −4.3% of holding | −1.4% | +6.8% | 106,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,428 @ $209.07 | $926K | −4.4% of holding | −1.4% | +6.8% | 96,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,322 @ $208.35 | $901K | −4.1% of holding | −1.4% | +6.8% | 100,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,721 @ $209.99 | $361K | −1.8% of holding | −1.4% | +6.8% | 94,408 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,551 @ $207.02 | $321K | −1.5% of holding | −1.4% | +6.8% | 104,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 19,593 @ $210.00 | $4.1M | −16.3% of holding | −0.0% | +12.6% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 7,236 @ $204.86 | $1.5M | −6.0% of holding | −1.9% | +14.6% | 113,590 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 7,196 @ $204.10 | $1.5M | −5.6% of holding | −1.9% | +14.6% | 120,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,235 @ $206.90 | $256K | −1.1% of holding | −1.9% | +14.6% | 111,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,140 @ $206.17 | $235K | −1.0% of holding | −1.9% | +14.6% | 112,450 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 9,545 @ $210.37 | $2.0M | −6.8% of holding | −9.8% | −3.8% | 130,013 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 3,810 @ $209.40 | $798K | −2.7% of holding | −9.8% | −3.8% | 139,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 2,008 @ $210.96 | $424K | −1.5% of holding | −9.8% | −3.8% | 128,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,444 @ $208.35 | $301K | −1.0% of holding | −9.8% | −3.8% | 143,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 12,603 @ $212.48 | $2.7M | −7.8% of holding | −1.4% | −10.8% | 149,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,204 @ $213.27 | $897K | −2.8% of holding | −1.4% | −10.8% | 144,812 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 3,786 @ $215.13 | $814K | −3.6% of holding | −2.2% | −11.5% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 750 @ $215.01 | $161K | −0.7% of holding | −3.5% | −13.9% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 600 @ $215.02 | $129K | −0.6% of holding | −4.6% | −14.9% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 21,871 @ $215.21 | $4.7M | −17.9% of holding | −6.5% | −16.1% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 15,370 @ $213.12 | $3.3M | −8.6% of holding | −0.5% | −4.8% | 163,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,137 @ $213.96 | $243K | −0.7% of holding | −0.5% | −4.8% | 161,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 400 @ $215.22 | $86K | −0.4% of holding | −0.5% | −4.8% | 100,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 300 @ $214.70 | $64K | −0.2% of holding | −0.5% | −4.8% | 161,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Gupta Suren | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $215.02 | $301K | −1.4% of holding | −2.8% | −4.0% | 101,031 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 7,791 @ $189.39 | $1.5M | −4.1% of holding | +9.5% | +7.1% | 181,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 5,930 @ $188.73 | $1.1M | −3.0% of holding | +9.5% | +7.1% | 189,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 2,101 @ $190.42 | $400K | −1.2% of holding | +9.5% | +7.1% | 179,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 985 @ $191.37 | $189K | −0.5% of holding | +9.5% | +7.1% | 178,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 11,032 @ $193.69 | $2.1M | −5.2% of holding | +10.0% | +5.0% | 201,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 4,488 @ $194.36 | $872K | −2.2% of holding | +10.0% | +5.0% | 196,520 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 1,086 @ $195.50 | $212K | −0.6% of holding | +10.0% | +5.0% | 195,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 201 @ $196.50 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | +10.0% | +5.0% | 195,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 9,804 @ $210.48 | $2.1M | −4.4% of holding | −7.0% | +1.3% | 212,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | WILSON THOMAS J | director | Sale | 6,335 @ $209.63 | $1.3M | −2.8% of holding | −7.0% | +1.3% | 222,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Jeevanjee Zulfikar | other | Withheld for tax | 213 | 16,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Jeevanjee Zulfikar | other | Award / grant | 483 | 16,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Award / grant | 3,783 | 3,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | KEANE MARGARET M | director | Gift | 944 | 17,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Award / grant | 16,615 | 16,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rizzo Mario | other | Option exercise | 56,225 | 138,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Rizzo Mario | other | Option exercise | 56,225 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Perold Jacques P | director | Award / grant | 174 | 2,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 169 | 8,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KEANE MARGARET M | director | Award / grant | 138 | 18,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Option exercise | 1,966 | 7,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Option exercise | 1,966 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ferren Eric K | officer | Withheld for tax | 72 | 490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ferren Eric K | officer | Option exercise | 245 | 4,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ferren Eric K | officer | Option exercise | 245 | 562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Carter Andrea M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,654 | 2,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Carter Andrea M | director | Option exercise | 4,025 | 4,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Carter Andrea M | director | Option exercise | 4,025 | 8,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | HUME RICHARD T | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown Donald Eugene | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Crawford Kermit R | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | HUME RICHARD T | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 5,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | HUME RICHARD T | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KEANE MARGARET M | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 18,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KEANE MARGARET M | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KEANE MARGARET M | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mehta Siddharth N | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Morris Maria R | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perold Jacques P | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 2,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perold Jacques P | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perold Jacques P | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Turner Monica J | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 2,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Turner Monica J | director | Option exercise | 1,603 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Turner Monica J | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | REDMOND ANDREA | director | Option exercise | 2,225 | 2,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | REDMOND ANDREA | director | Option exercise | 2,225 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | REDMOND ANDREA | director | Award / grant | 917 | 917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Prindiville Mark Q | other | Option exercise | 1,550 | 29,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Prindiville Mark Q | other | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $100–250K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-22 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.