AFRM · TickerCove

AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.58 · now $71.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AFRM has typically landed between $46.97 and $107.12 — a range of −34.4% to +49.6% from the issuance price $71.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,404 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$71.58 · 59% of range

$42.53 low$92.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.9%

typical move · IQR 31.9%

−34.4%worst (p90)+49.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AFRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $71.58 (+0.0%)
typical $70.24 (-1.9%)
middle 50% $58.81–$81.67
90% range $46.97–$107.12

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,404 windows spanning 2021-01-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-11	−61.2%	−61.2%	+1.9%
2022-02-09	−58.7%	−58.7%	+0.0%
2022-02-10	−55.3%	−55.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-01-03	+132.3%	−0.4%	+132.3%
2023-11-01	+113.9%	+0.0%	+113.9%
2023-11-17	+103.5%	+0.0%	+103.5%

1,404 overlapping windows · 2021-01-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−1.0%

n=5

Feb

17%

−13.6%

n=6

Mar

17%

−10.6%

n=6

Apr

33%

−2.5%

n=6

May

50%

+7.8%

n=6

Jun

83%

+4.1%

n=6

Jul

33%

+6.5%

n=6

Aug

83%

+25.7%

n=6

Sep

33%

−3.8%

n=6

Oct

60%

+6.4%

n=5

Nov

40%

+20.2%

n=5

Dec

40%

−3.3%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Sale	26,980 @ $72.19	$1.9M	−12.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	188,711	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-04	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $72.41	$1.8M	−10.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	215,691	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03	Adkins Katherine	officer	Sale	41,664 @ $75.53	$3.1M	−21.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	152,439	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	5,886 @ $74.02	$436K	−68.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,734	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Sale	23,765 @ $70.13	$1.7M	−12.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	170,338	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	15,545 @ $71.59	$1.1M	−63.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	8,820	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Sale	15,599 @ $71.00	$1.1M	−9.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	154,739	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Sale	2,300 @ $71.87	$165K	−1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	152,439	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	200 @ $72.51	$15K	−2.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	8,620	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-28	Linford Michael	officer	Sale	79,219 @ $90.01	$7.1M	−39.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	120,713	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-12	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	2,000 @ $77.86	$156K	−5.5% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	34,076	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-26	Linford Michael	officer	Sale	100,000 @ $80.04	$8.0M	−45.9% of holding	−10.5%	not yet — horizon still open	117,984	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	2,000 @ $65.00	$130K	−5.3% of holding	+4.2%	not yet — horizon still open	36,076	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	2,000 @ $55.00	$110K	−5.0% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	38,076	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	553,554 @ $80.52	$44.6M	−83.0% of holding	−22.8%	−8.4%	113,112	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	113,112 @ $81.12	$9.2M	−100.0% of holding	−22.8%	−8.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	36,401 @ $80.00	$2.9M	−96.4% of holding	−22.8%	−8.4%	1,368	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	8,189 @ $70.00	$573K	−85.7% of holding	+15.2%	−17.1%	1,368	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	259,705 @ $89.23	$23.2M	−55.7% of holding	−18.0%	−48.8%	206,176	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	202,582 @ $90.02	$18.2M	−98.3% of holding	−18.0%	−48.8%	3,594	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	185,832 @ $88.46	$16.4M	−28.5% of holding	−18.0%	−48.8%	465,881	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	Levchin Max R	director	Sale	3,594 @ $90.98	$327K	−100.0% of holding	−18.0%	−48.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Sale	12,500 @ $85.42	$1.1M	−5.5% of holding	−18.9%	−48.9%	213,967	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-04	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Sale	25,533 @ $90.71	$2.3M	−10.1% of holding	−19.9%	−46.5%	226,467	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-02	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	12,190 @ $82.24	$1.0M	−38.8% of holding	−14.2%	−45.9%	19,233	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	8,582 @ $83.27	$715K	−44.6% of holding	−14.2%	−45.9%	10,651	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	6,700 @ $84.09	$563K	−62.9% of holding	−14.2%	−45.9%	3,951	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02	O'Hare Robert	director	Sale	3,951 @ $85.28	$337K	−100.0% of holding	−14.2%	−45.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	37,260	194,103	Form 4
2026-09-03	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	4,404	156,843	Form 4
2026-09-03	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	4,404	7,680	Form 4
2026-09-03	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	37,260	43,874	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	41,664	194,103	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Withheld for tax	6,101	24,365	Form 4
2026-09-01	Michalek Libor	director	Withheld for tax	5,784	230,477	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Withheld for tax	4,795	152,439	Form 4
2026-09-01	Linford Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	4,662	127,770	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Withheld for tax	3,558	240,691	Form 4
2026-09-01	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	2,338	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	11,719	132,432	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Option exercise	1,122	7,853	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Option exercise	2,500	7,500	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Option exercise	3,333	6,667	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Option exercise	2,083	2,084	Form 4
2026-09-01	Jiyane Siphelele	officer	Option exercise	9,038	244,249	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	1,403	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	5,086	20,343	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	2,483	19,859	Form 4
2026-09-01	Michalek Libor	director	Option exercise	11,364	236,261	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	1,622	12,976	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	10,594	157,234	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	2,781	22,244	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	1,357	10,853	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	2,128	17,022	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	5,019	20,075	Form 4
2026-09-01	Michalek Libor	director	Option exercise	3,707	29,659	Form 4
2026-09-01	Michalek Libor	director	Option exercise	5,319	42,556	Form 4
2026-09-01	Michalek Libor	director	Option exercise	2,338	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	702	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Hare Robert	director	Option exercise	11,987	30,466	Form 4
2026-09-01	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	3,707	29,659	Form 4
2026-09-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Option exercise	41,664	12,084	Form 4
2026-09-01	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	5,674	45,393	Form 4
2026-08-28	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	79,219	199,932	Form 4
2026-08-28	Linford Michael	officer	Option exercise	79,219	354,651	Form 4
2026-08-01	Michalek Libor	director	Withheld for tax	1,189	224,897	Form 4
2026-08-01	Linford Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	970	120,713	Form 4
2026-08-01	Adkins Katherine	officer	Withheld for tax	634	146,640	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i