Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.40 · now $8.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACOG has typically landed between $6.37 and $11.08 — a range of −24.1% to +31.9% from the issuance price $8.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
444 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-11-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACOG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.46 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.51–$9.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.37–$11.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 444 windows spanning 2024-11-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-07 | −39.8% | −43.1% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | −33.3% | −37.6% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-11 | −31.7% | −36.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-21 | +151.3% | +0.0% | +151.3% |
| 2025-04-17 | +142.7% | +0.0% | +142.7% |
| 2025-04-22 | +116.0% | +0.0% | +132.0% |
444 overlapping windows · 2024-11-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−14.2%
n=2
Feb
100%
+14.5%
n=2
Mar
0%
−12.2%
n=2
Apr
100%
+8.9%
n=2
May
100%
+36.4%
n=2
Jun
50%
+8.3%
n=2
Jul
50%
+6.2%
n=2
Aug
50%
+1.5%
n=2
Sep
0%
−15.5%
n=2
Oct
0%
−4.9%
n=1
Nov
0%
−2.7%
n=1
Dec
50%
−1.5%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,029 @ $8.57 | $455K | +1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,145,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 27,141 @ $8.40 | $228K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,172,141 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,375 @ $8.54 | $29K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,091,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,373 @ $8.70 | $351K | +1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,088,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Wills Robert James | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $9.62 | $96K | +45.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $8.00 | $400K | +1.7% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,048,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,900 @ $7.92 | $23K | +0.1% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,998,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 130 @ $7.90 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,995,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 49,849 @ $7.80 | $389K | +1.7% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,995,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 140,237 @ $7.83 | $1.1M | +5.0% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,945,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $7.83 | $78K | +11.1% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 152,336 @ $6.40 | $975K | +5.7% of holding | +27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,805,107 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 197 @ $6.50 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +31.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,652,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,550 @ $5.99 | $27K | +0.2% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,652,574 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 273 @ $5.93 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +36.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,648,024 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,862 @ $5.91 | $17K | +0.1% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,647,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,872 @ $5.99 | $35K | +0.2% of holding | +36.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,644,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 24,856 @ $5.98 | $149K | +1.0% of holding | +37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,639,017 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,054 @ $5.83 | $59K | +0.4% of holding | +44.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,614,161 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 70,577 @ $5.90 | $416K | +2.8% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,604,107 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.83 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,533,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,161 @ $5.73 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | +16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,531,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,945 @ $5.70 | $91K | +0.6% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,530,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,431 @ $5.89 | $50K | +0.3% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,514,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | D'Angelo Lauren | officer | Purchase | 3,500 @ $5.76 | $20K | +2.6% of holding | +17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,395 @ $5.69 | $99K | +0.7% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,505,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,648 @ $5.83 | $97K | +0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,488,598 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,850 @ $4.99 | $9K | +0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,471,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.08 | $51K | +0.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,470,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,319 @ $5.28 | $39K | +0.3% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,460,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,581 @ $5.43 | $47K | +0.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,452,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,182 @ $5.59 | $23K | +0.2% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,444,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,094 @ $5.71 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,439,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,481 @ $5.75 | $14K | +0.1% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,437,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,331 @ $5.78 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | +11.7% | +38.2% | 2,435,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,358 @ $5.75 | $42K | +0.3% of holding | +7.7% | +36.0% | 2,434,012 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,708 @ $5.85 | $33K | +0.2% of holding | −1.2% | +36.8% | 2,426,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,179 @ $5.85 | $13K | +0.1% of holding | +13.2% | +48.7% | 2,420,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,900 @ $5.80 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | +21.9% | +49.3% | 2,418,767 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 42,023 @ $5.80 | $244K | +1.8% of holding | +11.0% | +46.4% | 2,416,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.80 | $29K | +5.9% of holding | +11.0% | +46.4% | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 19,795 @ $5.81 | $115K | +0.8% of holding | +6.1% | +46.8% | 2,374,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 46,411 @ $5.75 | $267K | +2.0% of holding | +7.1% | +46.9% | 2,355,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.75 | $29K | +6.3% of holding | +7.1% | +46.9% | 85,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.80 | $116K | +0.9% of holding | −0.4% | +47.5% | 2,308,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,638 @ $5.99 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +39.9% | 2,288,638 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 590 @ $5.99 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | −7.6% | +49.9% | 2,285,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,591 @ $5.80 | $311K | +2.4% of holding | −7.3% | +50.2% | 2,284,410 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.80 | $29K | +6.7% of holding | −7.3% | +50.2% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 95,819 @ $5.89 | $565K | +4.5% of holding | −1.1% | +53.1% | 2,230,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,181 @ $5.89 | $25K | +5.9% of holding | −1.1% | +53.1% | 75,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.84 | $58K | +0.5% of holding | +3.8% | +55.0% | 2,135,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,819 @ $5.84 | $16K | +4.1% of holding | +3.8% | +55.0% | 70,819 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | MERTZ LEONARD POWELL | director | Purchase | 27,778 @ $9.00 | $250K | +29.6% of holding | −2.2% | −38.7% | 121,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | MERTZ PHILLIP JOSEPH | director | Sale | 27,778 @ $9.00 | $250K | −55.3% of holding | −2.2% | −38.7% | 22,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Wills Robert James | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $8.49 | $127K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.2% | −38.7% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Sensenig Bethany | director | Award / grant | 6,991 | 6,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Sensenig Bethany | director | Award / grant | 5,489 | 5,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | MERTZ PHILLIP JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 7,241 | 29,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | MERTZ LEONARD POWELL | director | Award / grant | 7,241 | 145,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | MERTZ LEONARD POWELL | director | Award / grant | 8,437 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | MERTZ PHILLIP JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 8,437 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | CAWKELL KENNETH ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 7,241 | 107,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | CAWKELL KENNETH ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 8,437 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Wills Robert James | director | Award / grant | 7,241 | 22,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Wills Robert James | director | Award / grant | 8,437 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | BAKSHI RAJEEV KUMAR | director | Award / grant | 7,241 | 12,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | BAKSHI RAJEEV KUMAR | director | Award / grant | 8,437 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | DU HENRY HUY | officer | Award / grant | 20,579 | 20,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | McFadden Michael E. | director | Award / grant | 76,220 | 76,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | D'Angelo Lauren | officer | Award / grant | 137,195 | 137,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | D'Angelo Lauren | officer | Award / grant | 106,545 | 106,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | McFadden Michael E. | director | Award / grant | 190,549 | 190,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | McFadden Michael E. | director | Award / grant | 177,576 | 177,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | DU HENRY HUY | officer | Award / grant | 15,982 | 15,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Wills Robert James | director | Award / grant | 30,019 | 30,019 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | MERTZ PHILLIP JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 38,762 | 38,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | CAWKELL KENNETH ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 38,762 | 38,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | MERTZ LEONARD POWELL | director | Award / grant | 55,659 | 55,659 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | HAVENS JOHN PRENTISS | director | Award / grant | 38,762 | 38,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | D'Angelo Lauren | officer | Award / grant | 298,168 | 298,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | McFadden Michael E. | director | Award / grant | 496,947 | 496,947 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | BAKSHI RAJEEV KUMAR | director | Award / grant | 38,762 | 38,762 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.