Issued 2026-08-13 at $29.45 · now $28.38 (2026-08-13, −3.6% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ACAD has typically landed between $24.10 and $36.33 — a range of −18.2% to +23.3% from the issuance price $29.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,973 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($29.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACAD has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $29.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28.38 (-3.6%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.67 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.99–$32.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.1–$36.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-08-31 | −72.9% | −72.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-08-27 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 2009-08-28 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-15 | +191.0% | +0.0% | +191.0% |
| 2009-07-16 | +181.4% | +0.0% | +181.4% |
| 2009-07-10 | +166.7% | +0.0% | +166.7% |
4,973 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: ACP-211 Monotherapy for Major Depressive Disorder With Inadequate Antidepressant Response (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: ACP-204 in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2, Efficacy and Safety Study of ACP-204 in Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3, Open Label Extension Study of ACP-204 in Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: ACP-204 in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis Open Label Extension Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: OLE Study of Carbetocin Nasal Spray for the Treatment of Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.