Issued 2026-09-25 at $20.68 · now $20.68 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ACAD has typically landed between $16.90 and $25.51 — a range of −18.3% to +23.3% from the issuance price $20.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($20.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACAD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $20.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.8 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.89–$22.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.9–$25.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-08-31 | −72.9% | −72.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-08-27 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 2009-08-28 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-15 | +191.0% | +0.0% | +191.0% |
| 2009-07-16 | +181.4% | +0.0% | +181.4% |
| 2009-07-10 | +166.7% | +0.0% | +166.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: ACP-211 Monotherapy for Major Depressive Disorder With Inadequate Antidepressant Response (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: ACP-204 in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2, Efficacy and Safety Study of ACP-204 in Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3, Open Label Extension Study of ACP-204 in Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: ACP-204 in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis Open Label Extension Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: OLE Study of Carbetocin Nasal Spray for the Treatment of Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
+4.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Mar
40%
+5.6%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.0%
n=20
May
55%
+5.9%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Jul
60%
+6.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Oct
50%
−2.3%
n=20
Nov
50%
+4.9%
n=20
Dec
55%
+5.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 9,292 @ $29.34 | $273K | −12.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $29.00 | $145K | −6.1% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 5,849 @ $29.00 | $170K | −7.9% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Sale | 16,508 @ $26.13 | $431K | −46.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Sale | 50 @ $26.17 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 11,421 @ $26.08 | $298K | −46.6% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,088 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 5,401 @ $21.18 | $114K | −18.1% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,506 @ $21.79 | $76K | −5.0% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,332 @ $21.79 | $29K | −4.4% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 2,709 @ $22.20 | $60K | −4.1% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,836 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,030 @ $22.20 | $23K | −3.6% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,865 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,171 @ $21.65 | $69K | −5.0% of holding | −7.0% | −23.6% | 60,306 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,097 @ $21.65 | $24K | −3.9% of holding | −7.0% | −23.6% | 26,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 37 @ $21.72 | $804 | −0.1% of holding | −7.0% | −23.6% | 60,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 12 @ $21.73 | $261 | −0.0% of holding | −7.0% | −23.6% | 26,885 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Owen Adams Catherine | director | Sale | 11,641 @ $21.47 | $250K | −44.0% of holding | −8.9% | −16.3% | 14,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 4,177 @ $21.47 | $90K | −6.8% of holding | −8.9% | −16.3% | 57,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Rhodes Jennifer J | officer | Sale | 3,844 @ $21.47 | $83K | −25.4% of holding | −8.9% | −16.3% | 11,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Sale | 3,435 @ $21.47 | $74K | −51.2% of holding | −8.9% | −16.3% | 3,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 833 @ $21.47 | $18K | −3.1% of holding | −8.9% | −16.3% | 25,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Rhodes Jennifer J | officer | Sale | 6,950 @ $23.38 | $162K | −47.7% of holding | −2.8% | +15.0% | 7,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 10,262 @ $23.69 | $243K | −16.1% of holding | +9.3% | −23.6% | 53,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 4,084 @ $23.69 | $97K | −14.0% of holding | +9.3% | −23.6% | 25,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Daly James M | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $22.37 | $671K | −88.1% of holding | +19.9% | −9.6% | 4,041 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,498 @ $23.65 | $83K | −7.5% of holding | −17.9% | −17.4% | 43,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $25.98 | $42K | −5.9% of holding | −22.0% | −16.6% | 25,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 22,000 @ $25.18 | $554K | −35.4% of holding | −5.9% | −14.7% | 40,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Brege Laura | director | Sale | 14,446 @ $21.78 | $315K | −48.9% of holding | −8.5% | +3.5% | 15,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | −8.2% of holding | +1.9% | −5.8% | 22,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $25.00 | $50K | −3.1% of holding | +1.9% | −5.8% | 62,130 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $20.00 | $40K | −8.9% of holding | +1.9% | −5.8% | 20,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,498 @ $14.60 | $51K | −5.3% of holding | +42.2% | +31.2% | 62,773 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,327 @ $14.60 | $19K | −5.3% of holding | +42.2% | +31.2% | 23,526 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-08 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 2,708 @ $14.82 | $40K | −4.4% of holding | +6.3% | +14.8% | 59,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-08 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,028 @ $14.82 | $15K | −4.4% of holding | +6.3% | +14.8% | 22,257 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,171 @ $17.05 | $54K | −5.3% of holding | −10.3% | +8.1% | 56,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,095 @ $17.05 | $19K | −4.9% of holding | −10.3% | +8.1% | 21,275 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Sale | 4,919 @ $18.23 | $90K | −21.8% of holding | −3.2% | +29.0% | 17,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 773 @ $19.96 | $15K | −1.4% of holding | −8.8% | +21.8% | 53,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 475 @ $19.96 | $9K | −2.3% of holding | −8.8% | +21.8% | 20,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-19 | Teehan Brendan | officer | Sale | 10,329 @ $16.81 | $174K | −14.3% of holding | +3.9% | +36.9% | 62,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-19 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 10,259 @ $16.81 | $172K | −16.1% of holding | +3.9% | +36.9% | 53,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-19 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 4,073 @ $16.81 | $68K | −17.0% of holding | +3.9% | +36.9% | 19,863 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-19 | DAVIS STEPHEN | director | Sale | 31,747 @ $15.28 | $485K | −14.5% of holding | +3.3% | +19.0% | 186,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 9,733 @ $15.28 | $149K | −18.2% of holding | +3.3% | +19.0% | 43,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Teehan Brendan | officer | Sale | 9,534 @ $15.28 | $146K | −15.4% of holding | +3.3% | +19.0% | 52,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-10 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 975 @ $14.79 | $14K | −2.7% of holding | +14.4% | +12.5% | 34,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | DAVIS STEPHEN | director | Sale | 11,427 @ $16.94 | $194K | −6.9% of holding | −15.0% | −27.9% | 155,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 3,503 @ $16.94 | $59K | −9.9% of holding | −15.0% | −27.9% | 32,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | Teehan Brendan | officer | Sale | 3,477 @ $16.94 | $59K | −7.6% of holding | −15.0% | −27.9% | 42,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,326 @ $16.94 | $22K | −8.4% of holding | −15.0% | −27.9% | 14,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | DAVIS STEPHEN | director | Sale | 17,716 @ $17.87 | $317K | −10.9% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 144,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | DAVIS STEPHEN | director | Sale | 8,858 @ $17.87 | $158K | −5.2% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 161,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Sale | 2,716 @ $17.87 | $49K | −8.6% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 28,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | Teehan Brendan | officer | Sale | 2,568 @ $17.87 | $46K | −6.2% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 38,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 1,028 @ $17.87 | $18K | −6.9% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 13,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | Kihara James | officer | Sale | 762 @ $17.87 | $14K | −5.5% of holding | −2.8% | −27.4% | 13,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
243 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Option exercise | 14,292 | 82,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Option exercise | 14,292 | 60,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Option exercise | 5,849 | 73,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Schneyer Mark C. | officer | Option exercise | 5,849 | 74,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Option exercise | 32,272 | 32,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Option exercise | 32,272 | 35,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thompson Elizabeth H.Z. | director | Option exercise | 32,272 | 35,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 32,008 | 32,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 18,622 | 3,677,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 18,622 | 39,384,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HARRIGAN EDMUND | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HARRIGAN EDMUND | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HARRIGAN EDMUND | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brege Laura | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brege Laura | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brege Laura | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly James M | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly James M | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly James M | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Poole Jonathan | director | Option exercise | 2,010 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Poole Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Poole Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ndu Adora | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ndu Adora | director | Award / grant | 16,004 | 16,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ndu Adora | director | Award / grant | 9,311 | 9,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HARRIGAN EDMUND | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 43,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 33,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Poole Jonathan | director | Option exercise | 2,010 | 2,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ndu Adora | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 32,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly James M | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 12,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brege Laura | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 23,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Poole Jonathan | director | Option exercise | 2,010 | 2,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brege Laura | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 23,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Daly James M | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 12,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 33,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HARRIGAN EDMUND | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 43,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ndu Adora | director | Option exercise | 8,107 | 32,908 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.