ZVRA · TickerCove

ZVRAZevra Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.80 · now $11.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZVRA has typically landed between $9.19 and $15.28 — a range of −22.2% to +29.5% from the issuance price $11.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,851 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.8 · 61% of range

$7.26 low$14.75 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 20.1%

−22.2%worst (p90)+29.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ZVRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.8 (+0.0%)
typical $11.88 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $10.69–$13.06
90% range $9.19–$15.28

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,851 windows spanning 2015-04-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2016-04-15	−68.2%	−68.2%	+0.4%
2020-12-18	−67.7%	−70.1%	+0.0%
2016-04-18	−67.7%	−67.7%	+1.9%
3 best
2020-07-27	+191.8%	+0.0%	+191.8%
2020-07-24	+178.7%	+0.0%	+178.7%
2020-07-28	+173.4%	+0.0%	+178.1%

2,851 overlapping windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+3.0%

n=11

Feb

55%

+4.5%

n=11

Mar

27%

−4.3%

n=11

Apr

36%

−2.3%

n=11

May

67%

−2.2%

n=12

Jun

75%

+9.9%

n=12

Jul

42%

−1.1%

n=12

Aug

58%

+8.6%

n=12

Sep

50%

−2.3%

n=12

Oct

45%

−8.7%

n=11

Nov

45%

+4.7%

n=11

Dec

45%

−3.0%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Sale	42,666 @ $11.13	$475K	−53.2% of holding	+5.4%	not yet — horizon still open	37,569	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Watton Corey Michael	director	Sale	12,300 @ $11.25	$138K	−87.2% of holding	+6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,800	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Sale	34,557 @ $12.68	$438K	−30.1% of holding	−4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	80,235	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Sale	1,794 @ $11.30	$20K	−3.6% of holding	+26.9%	not yet — horizon still open	48,125	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Sale	14,625 @ $8.56	$125K	−3.6% of holding	+24.0%	+20.7%	387,225	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Schafer Joshua	officer	Sale	10,500 @ $9.19	$97K	−14.4% of holding	−2.8%	+2.7%	62,278	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $9.18	$28K	−9.2% of holding	−2.8%	+2.7%	29,590	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Sale	91,000 @ $9.38	$853K	−20.0% of holding	−3.1%	+0.9%	364,350	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30	Quartel Adrian W	officer	Sale	4,533 @ $8.83	$40K	−31.8% of holding	+0.7%	+1.7%	9,723	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Sale	4,080 @ $8.83	$36K	−7.6% of holding	+0.7%	+1.7%	49,919	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30	Schafer Joshua	officer	Sale	3,375 @ $8.83	$30K	−8.3% of holding	+0.7%	+1.7%	37,444	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Sale	1,750 @ $8.82	$15K	−7.7% of holding	+0.7%	+1.7%	20,924	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-10	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Sale	19,500 @ $10.82	$211K	−8.1% of holding	−21.7%	−18.0%	222,016	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12	Shih Alvin	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $7.89	$158K	ownership Δ n/a	+36.8%	+25.0%	20,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-12	FAVORITO TAMARA A	director	Purchase	3,175 @ $7.79	$25K	+441.6% of holding	+36.8%	+25.0%	3,894	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Bode John B	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $9.16	$46K	+12.5% of holding	−15.4%	−8.9%	45,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Sale	24,000 @ $9.21	$221K	−36.0% of holding	+12.4%	−20.4%	42,666	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-28	Watton Corey Michael	director	Purchase	300 @ $7.84	$2K	+20.0% of holding	−7.7%	+1.4%	1,800	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-19	Bode John B	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $7.96	$80K	+33.3% of holding	−3.2%	−17.6%	40,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Sale	30,544 @ $8.05	$246K	−13.8% of holding	+6.7%	+7.9%	191,516	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Sale	61,273 @ $7.86	$481K	−21.6% of holding	+11.5%	+11.9%	222,060	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Clifton R. LaDuane	officer	Sale	11,000 @ $7.86	$86K	−17.6% of holding	+11.5%	+11.9%	51,361	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Schafer Joshua	officer	Sale	10,500 @ $7.86	$83K	−26.3% of holding	+11.5%	+11.9%	29,486	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $7.86	$24K	−15.5% of holding	+11.5%	+11.9%	16,341	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Watton Corey Michael	director	Option exercise	12,300	14,100	Form 4
2026-08-10	Watton Corey Michael	director	Option exercise	12,300	46,500	Form 4
2026-06-21	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Option exercise	66,667	66,667	Form 4
2026-06-21	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Option exercise	66,667	114,792	Form 4
2026-06-21	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Option exercise	66,667	114,792	Form 4
2026-06-04	Secor Alicia	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-06-04	Anderson Thomas	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-06-04	Calder Douglas W	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-06-04	FAVORITO TAMARA A	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-06-04	Shih Alvin	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-06-04	Watton Corey Michael	director	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Award / grant	20,000	20,000	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Award / grant	40,000	40,000	Form 4
2026-03-24	Bode John B	director	Option exercise	39,200	84,200	Form 4
2026-03-24	Bode John B	director	Option exercise	39,200	123,400	Form 4
2026-03-24	Bode John B	director	Option exercise	39,200	19,600	Form 4
2026-03-24	Bode John B	director	Option exercise	39,200	0	Form 4
2026-03-18	Renz Justin A	officer	Award / grant	300,000	300,000	Form 4
2026-02-07	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	37,500	75,000	Form 4
2026-02-07	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	37,500	401,850	Form 4
2026-02-07	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	37,500	401,850	Form 4
2026-01-31	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	11,666	11,668	Form 4
2026-01-31	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	35,334	35,333	Form 4
2026-01-31	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	233,334	233,333	Form 4
2026-01-31	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	233,334	455,350	Form 4
2026-01-31	McFarlane Neil F.	director	Option exercise	233,334	455,350	Form 4
2026-01-31	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	11,666	32,590	Form 4
2026-01-31	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	35,334	72,778	Form 4
2026-01-31	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	11,666	32,590	Form 4
2026-01-31	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	35,334	72,778	Form 4
2026-01-30	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Option exercise	11,333	22,667	Form 4
2026-01-30	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	11,333	22,667	Form 4
2026-01-30	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	6,333	12,667	Form 4
2026-01-30	Quartel Adrian W	officer	Option exercise	11,333	22,667	Form 4
2026-01-30	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	11,333	40,819	Form 4
2026-01-30	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	6,333	22,674	Form 4
2026-01-30	Thompson Rahsaan	officer	Option exercise	11,333	53,999	Form 4
2026-01-30	Sangiovanni Timothy J.	officer	Option exercise	6,333	22,674	Form 4
2026-01-30	Quartel Adrian W	officer	Option exercise	11,333	14,256	Form 4
2026-01-30	Schafer Joshua	officer	Option exercise	11,333	40,819	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i