Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.61 · now $4.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZURA has typically landed between $2.98 and $7.34 — a range of −35.4% to +59.2% from the issuance price $4.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
854 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-03-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ZURA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.6 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.88–$5.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.98–$7.34
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-23 | −75.5% | −75.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-24 | −73.7% | −73.7% | +0.0% |
| 2023-04-03 | −64.8% | −64.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-18 | +144.3% | −1.3% | +144.3% |
| 2023-05-22 | +125.7% | +0.0% | +141.5% |
| 2023-05-19 | +124.8% | +0.0% | +147.6% |
854 overlapping windows · 2023-03-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | AI Biotechnology LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,000,000 @ $6.25 | $12.5M | +43.9% of holding | −4.6% | −26.0% | 6,552,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Munshi Amit | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Becker Daniel J. | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nirula Ajay | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Schoch Steven J | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thiara Parvinder | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Eisner Mark | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Davis Kim | officer | Award / grant | 425,700 | 425,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kulkarni Sandeep Chidambar | director | Award / grant | 894,000 | 894,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Whale Gary | officer | Award / grant | 263,000 | 263,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Nistala Kiran | officer | Award / grant | 340,900 | 340,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Award / grant | 340,900 | 340,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Nirula Ajay | director | Award / grant | 37,812 | 37,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Eisner Mark | director | Award / grant | 37,812 | 37,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Thiara Parvinder | director | Award / grant | 38,823 | 38,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kulkarni Sandeep Chidambar | director | Award / grant | 2,934,107 | 2,934,107 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Award / grant | 672,000 | 672,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Becker Daniel J. | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Graham Neil Murray Hamilton | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Munshi Amit | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Sidhu Someit | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Schoch Steven J | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Kulkarni Sandeep Chidambar | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Ploos van Amstel Arnout | director | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Badial Verender S. | officer | Award / grant | 303,100 | 303,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Whale Gary | officer | Award / grant | 302,000 | 302,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Nistala Kiran | officer | Award / grant | 341,700 | 341,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Lisicki Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,153,000 | 1,153,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Davis Kim | officer | Award / grant | 488,800 | 488,800 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Ploos van Amstel Arnout | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Schoch Steven J | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Sidhu Someit | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Thiara Parvinder | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Lisicki Robert | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Graham Neil Murray Hamilton | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Kulkarni Sandeep Chidambar | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Munshi Amit | director | Award / grant | 117,000 | 117,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-16 | Davis Kim | officer | Award / grant | 1,000 | 1,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.