ZUMZ · TickerCove

ZUMZZumiez Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.38 · now $13.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZUMZ has typically landed between $10.66 and $16.25 — a range of −20.3% to +21.4% from the issuance price $13.38.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.38 · 0% of range

$13.38 low$30.62 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.7%

typical move · IQR 17.7%

−20.3%worst (p90)+21.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ZUMZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.38 (+0.0%)
typical $13.15 (-1.7%)
middle 50% $11.97–$14.33
90% range $10.66–$16.25

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2007-10-11	−48.4%	−48.4%	+1.2%
2008-09-26	−48.4%	−48.4%	+0.0%
2007-10-12	−47.8%	−49.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-14	+61.6%	+0.0%	+61.6%
2009-03-05	+57.5%	−3.9%	+57.5%
2009-07-10	+57.2%	+0.0%	+57.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.5%

n=20

Feb

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Mar

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Apr

55%

+3.2%

n=20

May

55%

−2.5%

n=20

Jun

45%

−3.1%

n=20

Jul

50%

+2.5%

n=20

Aug

45%

+3.1%

n=20

Sep

45%

+1.7%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Dec

40%

−1.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-15	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	540 @ $18.64	$10K	−9.3% of holding	+3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	5,264	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	1,319 @ $18.81	$25K	−18.5% of holding	−0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	5,804	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-11	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	3,841 @ $18.82	$72K	−35.0% of holding	−4.2%	not yet — horizon still open	7,123	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	300 @ $19.41	$6K	−2.7% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	10,964	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	9,974 @ $22.21	$222K	−18.7% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	43,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Sale	7,319 @ $28.41	$208K	−10.9% of holding	−11.8%	−42.8%	60,031	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-19	Smith Travis	director	Sale	9,175 @ $28.36	$260K	−28.6% of holding	−15.1%	−41.6%	22,954	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	8,159 @ $29.39	$240K	−15.0% of holding	−13.9%	−50.0%	46,187	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	1,884 @ $29.12	$55K	−4.1% of holding	−13.9%	−50.0%	44,303	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11	Harkless Guy Matthew	director	Sale	2,500 @ $29.19	$73K	−14.8% of holding	−15.3%	−46.7%	14,385	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-09	Smith Travis	director	Sale	9,349 @ $30.10	$281K	−22.5% of holding	−15.8%	−47.0%	32,129	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-09	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	727 @ $30.25	$22K	−1.6% of holding	−15.8%	−47.0%	44,303	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-08	Bauza Carmen	director	Sale	7,000 @ $29.69	$208K	−40.2% of holding	−10.2%	−44.6%	10,409	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	4,512 @ $20.10	$91K	−9.0% of holding	+1.0%	+2.0%	45,409	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17	Visser Chris K.	officer	Sale	1,106 @ $20.08	$22K	−2.4% of holding	+1.0%	+2.0%	44,303	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	3,655 @ $21.30	$78K	−33.8% of holding	−8.5%	+5.1%	7,154	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	6,600 @ $12.82	$85K	−37.9% of holding	+14.0%	+102.0%	10,809	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-25	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Sale	4,747 @ $15.11	$72K	−31.6% of holding	−14.9%	+16.0%	10,255	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11	Bauza Carmen	director	Sale	3,386 @ $21.98	$74K	−24.8% of holding	−24.9%	−43.1%	10,255	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-03	Murphy James P.	director	Award / grant	4,110	32,231	Form 4
2026-06-03	Smith Travis	director	Award / grant	4,110	27,064	Form 4
2026-06-03	Valletta Liliana Gil	director	Award / grant	4,110	11,264	Form 4
2026-06-03	Bauza Carmen	director	Award / grant	4,110	14,519	Form 4
2026-06-03	Harkless Guy Matthew	director	Award / grant	4,110	18,495	Form 4
2026-06-03	Louden Steve	director	Award / grant	4,110	29,335	Form 4
2026-03-18	Work Christopher Codington	officer	Withheld for tax	1,981	116,063	Form 4
2026-03-18	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Withheld for tax	1,828	73,664	Form 4
2026-03-18	Visser Chris K.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,371	53,474	Form 4
2026-03-18	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	7,507	35,007	Form 4
2026-03-18	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	7,507	75,492	Form 4
2026-03-18	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	7,507	75,492	Form 4
2026-03-17	Work Christopher Codington	officer	Withheld for tax	1,801	118,044	Form 4
2026-03-17	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Withheld for tax	1,695	67,985	Form 4
2026-03-17	Visser Chris K.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,382	54,845	Form 4
2026-03-17	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	6,845	42,514	Form 4
2026-03-17	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	6,845	69,680	Form 4
2026-03-17	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	6,845	69,680	Form 4
2026-03-16	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Award / grant	27,149	27,149	Form 4
2026-03-16	Work Christopher Codington	officer	Award / grant	14,963	119,845	Form 4
2026-03-16	Visser Chris K.	officer	Award / grant	11,510	56,227	Form 4
2026-03-16	Visser Chris K.	officer	Award / grant	22,624	22,624	Form 4
2026-03-16	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Award / grant	13,812	49,359	Form 4
2026-03-16	Work Christopher Codington	officer	Award / grant	29,411	29,411	Form 4
2026-03-13	Work Christopher Codington	officer	Withheld for tax	1,349	104,882	Form 4
2026-03-13	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Withheld for tax	1,229	62,835	Form 4
2026-03-13	Visser Chris K.	officer	Withheld for tax	860	44,717	Form 4
2026-03-13	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	4,033	35,547	Form 4
2026-03-13	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	4,033	64,064	Form 4
2026-03-13	ELLIS ADAM CHRISTOPHER	officer	Option exercise	4,033	64,064	Form 4
2025-12-16	Campion Thomas D	director	Gift	100,000	750,817	Form 4
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	8,159	54,346	Form 4
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	1,884	46,187	Form 4
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	8,159	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	1,884	0	Form 4
2025-12-09	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	727	45,030	Form 4
2025-12-09	Visser Chris K.	officer	Option exercise	727	1,884	Form 4
2025-12-09	Campion Thomas D	director	Gift	25,333	850,817	Form 4
2025-06-04	Harkless Guy Matthew	director	Award / grant	7,154	16,885	Form 4
2025-06-04	Louden Steve	director	Award / grant	7,154	25,225	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i