ZNTLZentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.10 · now $3.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZNTL has typically landed between $2.11 and $4.23 — a range of −32.1% to +36.6% from the issuance price $3.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,599 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ZNTL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.11worst · -32.1%$4.23best · +36.6%
  • now $3.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.97 (-4.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.57–$3.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.11–$4.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,599 windows spanning 2020-04-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-31−69.9%−69.9%+0.0%
2024-06-03−69.5%−69.5%+2.2%
2024-06-04−68.4%−69.6%+1.8%
3 best
2025-12-09+171.0%−3.6%+171.0%
2025-12-12+150.7%−5.0%+167.1%
2025-12-10+145.8%−6.3%+163.4%

1,599 overlapping windows · 2020-04-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−4.2%
n=6
Feb
50%
+3.4%
n=6
Mar
33%
−5.5%
n=6
Apr
50%
+8.9%
n=6
May
43%
+6.3%
n=7
Jun
43%
−5.2%
n=7
Jul
43%
−2.5%
n=7
Aug
29%
+1.4%
n=7
Sep
14%
−10.4%
n=7
Oct
50%
+2.1%
n=6
Nov
50%
+2.5%
n=6
Dec
50%
+1.4%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$7$12026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $15.2M — WALTERS GROUP2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $17K — Vultaggio Vincent2026-02-09: 3 insider sales, $11K — Vultaggio Vincent, EASTLAND JULIA MARIE, Bruns Ingmar2026-02-06: 3 insider sales, $99K — Vultaggio Vincent, EASTLAND JULIA MARIE, Bruns Ingmar2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $1K — Vultaggio Vincent2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $6K — Vultaggio Vincent2025-12-31: 1 insider purchase, $7.8M — WALTERS GROUP2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $10.0M — Matrix Capital Management Company, LP2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $7.8M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $10.0M2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $135K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $15.2M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner WALTERS GROUP — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Vultaggio Vincent — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same dayofficer Vultaggio Vincent — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector EASTLAND JULIA MARIE — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bruns Ingmar — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vultaggio Vincent — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector EASTLAND JULIA MARIE — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bruns Ingmar — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Vultaggio Vincent — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vultaggio Vincent — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WALTERS GROUP — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 8 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Matrix Capital Management Company, LP — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14WALTERS GROUPtenPercentOwnerPurchase4,335,000 @ $3.50$15.2M+32.1% of holding−9.6%not yet — horizon still open17,844,973Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-10Vultaggio VincentofficerSale6,894 @ $2.42$17K−4.5% of holding+18.3%+59.9%146,506Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-09Vultaggio VincentofficerSale3,379 @ $2.39$8K−2.2% of holding+25.9%+66.8%153,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorSale889 @ $2.39$2K−1.1% of holding+25.9%+66.8%79,133Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09Bruns IngmarofficerSale335 @ $2.39$802−1.0% of holding+25.9%+66.8%33,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Vultaggio VincentofficerSale29,951 @ $2.43$73K−16.0% of holding+30.0%+59.8%156,779Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorSale7,866 @ $2.43$19K−9.0% of holding+30.0%+59.8%80,022Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Bruns IngmarofficerSale2,962 @ $2.43$7K−8.1% of holding+30.0%+59.8%33,667Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-03Vultaggio VincentofficerSale556 @ $2.52$1K−0.3% of holding−21.1%+65.3%186,730Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Vultaggio VincentofficerSale2,540 @ $2.55$6K−1.3% of holding+1.5%+85.9%187,286Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31WALTERS GROUPtenPercentOwnerPurchase6,459,973 @ $1.20$7.8M+91.6% of holding+83.9%+243.8%13,509,973Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-12-15Matrix Capital Management Company, LPtenPercentOwnerSale7,500,000 @ $1.33$10.0M−53.7% of holding+123.7%+153.7%6,459,973Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-30Myers Scott DunsethdirectorPurchase21,000 @ $1.40$29K+8.1% of holding−21.1%−16.9%281,192Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-06Bruns IngmarofficerPurchase20,000 @ $2.28$46K+120.3% of holding−9.6%−39.1%36,629Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-02-03Lackner MarkofficerSale14,368 @ $1.71$25K−2.7% of holding+17.3%−21.7%512,856Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Paul AndreaofficerSale13,230 @ $1.71$23K−1.2% of holding+17.3%−21.7%1,070,784Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Vultaggio VincentofficerSale2,615 @ $1.71$4K−1.4% of holding+17.3%−21.7%189,826Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-31Skvarka JandirectorPurchase60,000 @ $1.72$103K+67.0% of holding+11.6%−25.6%149,551Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorPurchase28,500 @ $1.73$49Kownership Δ n/a+11.6%−25.6%28,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31Walker Luke NathanieldirectorPurchase14,200 @ $1.76$25K+19.6% of holding+11.6%−25.6%86,681Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02Lackner MarkofficerSale4,411 @ $3.12$14K−2.3% of holding−48.6%−64.4%191,317Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

25 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-16Johnson David MichaeldirectorAward / grant57,100307,521Form 4
2026-06-16Kariuki EnochdirectorAward / grant57,100194,465Form 4
2026-06-16Myers Scott DunsethdirectorAward / grant57,100395,895Form 4
2026-06-16Skvarka JandirectorAward / grant57,100264,254Form 4
2026-06-16Walker Luke NathanieldirectorAward / grant57,100201,384Form 4
2026-05-26Campbell ShannondirectorAward / grant114,200114,200Form 4
2026-01-08EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorAward / grant775,000775,000Form 4
2026-01-08Vultaggio VincentofficerAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-01-08Bucher James BofficerAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-01-08Bruns IngmarofficerAward / grant365,000365,000Form 4
2025-10-01Bucher James BofficerAward / grant400,000400,000Form 4
2025-06-17Walker Luke NathanieldirectorAward / grant57,603144,284Form 4
2025-06-17Kariuki EnochdirectorAward / grant57,603137,365Form 4
2025-06-17Skvarka JandirectorAward / grant57,603207,154Form 4
2025-06-17Myers Scott DunsethdirectorAward / grant57,603338,795Form 4
2025-06-17Johnson David MichaeldirectorAward / grant57,603250,421Form 4
2025-02-03Vultaggio VincentofficerAward / grant35,63335,633Form 4
2025-02-03Bruns IngmarofficerAward / grant16,62916,629Form 4
2025-02-03Paul AndreaofficerAward / grant934,0411,084,014Form 4
2025-02-03Vultaggio VincentofficerAward / grant158,586192,441Form 4
2025-02-03EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorAward / grant59,38887,888Form 4
2025-02-03EASTLAND JULIA MARIEdirectorAward / grant59,38859,388Form 4
2025-02-03Lackner MarkofficerAward / grant124,714124,714Form 4
2025-02-03Lackner MarkofficerAward / grant335,907527,224Form 4
2025-02-03Paul AndreaofficerAward / grant124,714124,714Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.