Issued 2026-09-16 at $91.94 · now $91.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZM has typically landed between $74.79 and $108.86 — a range of −18.7% to +18.4% from the issuance price $91.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,842 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-04-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($91.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ZM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $91.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $91.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.64 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $83.99–$97.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $74.79–$108.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,842 windows spanning 2019-04-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-03 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-10 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +0.8% |
| 2022-02-09 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-08-24 | +77.3% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2020-08-03 | +70.8% | −13.8% | +70.8% |
| 2020-08-21 | +70.0% | −2.6% | +70.0% |
1,842 overlapping windows · 2019-04-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+2.9%
n=7
Feb
43%
−0.3%
n=7
Mar
43%
+2.0%
n=7
Apr
29%
−2.9%
n=7
May
100%
+9.2%
n=8
Jun
63%
+6.0%
n=8
Jul
63%
+2.2%
n=8
Aug
50%
−0.0%
n=8
Sep
38%
+0.7%
n=8
Oct
57%
+1.0%
n=7
Nov
57%
−0.2%
n=7
Dec
29%
−7.9%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Sale | 2,384 @ $95.76 | $228K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 149,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Sale | 206 @ $96.37 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 149,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 1,792 @ $96.48 | $173K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 125,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 845 @ $96.95 | $82K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,423 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 10,329 @ $95.70 | $988K | −29.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,769 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,771 @ $96.53 | $171K | −7.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 10,727 @ $95.27 | $1.0M | −30.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,373 @ $95.89 | $132K | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 8,786 @ $100.03 | $879K | −25.3% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 2,959 @ $100.85 | $298K | −11.4% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 355 @ $98.86 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 7,111 @ $99.76 | $709K | −20.3% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 4,167 @ $100.59 | $419K | −14.9% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 754 @ $101.58 | $77K | −3.2% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 68 @ $102.25 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 4,863 @ $101.76 | $495K | −3.7% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 2,660 @ $100.84 | $268K | −2.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 256 @ $99.70 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 72 @ $98.71 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 40 @ $97.23 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 20 @ $102.19 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Sale | 7,644 @ $91.98 | $703K | −4.9% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,403 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 7,293 @ $90.53 | $660K | −21.5% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 3,601 @ $91.30 | $329K | −13.5% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,206 @ $89.49 | $108K | −3.4% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | McMaster Herbert Raymond | director | Sale | 5 @ $88.83 | $444 | −0.0% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 19,054 @ $91.61 | $1.7M | −33.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 15,593 @ $92.53 | $1.4M | −40.4% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 11,077 @ $90.62 | $1.0M | −16.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Chang Michelle | officer | Sale | 8,189 @ $90.78 | $743K | −18.6% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,752 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Chang Michelle | officer | Sale | 300 @ $91.31 | $27K | −0.8% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,452 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 1,693 @ $90.62 | $153K | −1.2% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,554 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 575 @ $89.75 | $52K | −0.4% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,247 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 369 @ $88.60 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,822 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Chang Michelle | officer | Sale | 327 @ $93.83 | $31K | −1.1% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 9,100 @ $106.20 | $966K | −75.2% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 2,345 @ $107.01 | $251K | −78.2% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 326 @ $108.21 | $35K | −49.8% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 269 @ $108.96 | $29K | −81.8% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 60 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 60 @ $110.25 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 6,298 @ $111.59 | $703K | −62.2% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 3,730 @ $112.32 | $419K | −97.6% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 90 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,389 @ $110.53 | $154K | −12.1% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 593 @ $109.63 | $65K | −4.9% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 90 @ $113.26 | $10K | −100.0% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 1,386 @ $111.24 | $154K | −1.0% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 926 @ $106.11 | $98K | −0.6% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 877 @ $111.94 | $98K | −0.6% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 772 @ $113.03 | $87K | −0.6% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 424 @ $109.18 | $46K | −0.3% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 269 @ $104.03 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 244 @ $108.15 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,151 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 216 @ $107.07 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 76 @ $104.82 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 56 @ $110.52 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Sale | 28 @ $113.61 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 6,610 @ $109.07 | $721K | −100.0% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,917 @ $108.22 | $207K | −22.5% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,842 @ $107.18 | $197K | −17.8% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Sale | 1,731 @ $106.13 | $184K | −14.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,579 | 151,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Option exercise | 4,224 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Option exercise | 2,807 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Option exercise | 7,031 | 155,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,667,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 35,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 35,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,679,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epstein Jeff | director | Award / grant | 2,233 | 2,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 35,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,692,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 35,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,704,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,716,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 35,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 68,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Conversion | 12,100 | 20,728,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Withheld for tax | 23,824 | 56,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,559 | 156,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Chang Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,743 | 43,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | McGarry Kimberly J | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,532 | 7,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Option exercise | 20,751 | 145,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Option exercise | 46,822 | 80,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sankarlingam Velchamy | officer | Option exercise | 20,751 | 166,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Option exercise | 46,822 | 514,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | McGarry Kimberly J | officer | Option exercise | 12,486 | 37,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | McGarry Kimberly J | officer | Option exercise | 12,486 | 12,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Chang Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 22,217 | 199,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Chang Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 22,217 | 52,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Withheld for tax | 34,831 | 33,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Option exercise | 68,455 | 68,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Option exercise | 30,173 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Yuan Eric S. | director | Option exercise | 38,282 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Scheinman Daniel | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McDermott William R | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McMaster Herbert Raymond | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hoots Cindy L | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Fenger Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Chadwick Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Subotovsky Santiago | director | Award / grant | 3,012 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.