Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.75 · now $58.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZD has typically landed between $48.19 and $68.17 — a range of −18.0% to +16.0% from the issuance price $58.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ZD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $58.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.16 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.11–$62.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.19–$68.17
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-19 | −35.3% | −37.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −33.8% | −33.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-24 | +63.9% | +0.0% | +65.3% |
| 2026-02-25 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +63.2% |
| 2026-02-27 | +54.8% | +0.0% | +61.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | KRETZMER W BRIAN | director | Sale | 2,513 @ $55.31 | $139K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | TANSLEY LORI A. | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $54.76 | $77K | −64.6% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Sale | 3,819 @ $54.93 | $210K | −26.4% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $46.88 | $844K | −38.1% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | McDonald Kirk P | director | Sale | 975 @ $46.65 | $45K | −6.7% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-08 | McDonald Kirk P | director | Sale | 100 @ $46.66 | $5K | −0.7% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,468 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $47.00 | $376K | −35.6% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,462 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Barsten Jana | director | Sale | 3,347 @ $45.00 | $151K | −21.1% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,513 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | KRETZMER W BRIAN | director | Sale | 1,968 @ $44.51 | $88K | −8.0% of holding | +17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Sale | 4,347 @ $45.75 | $199K | −16.2% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | FAY SARAH ANN | director | Purchase | 1,354 @ $36.89 | $50K | +6.1% of holding | +0.7% | +13.4% | 23,619 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | KRETZMER W BRIAN | director | Purchase | 653 @ $38.33 | $25K | +5.3% of holding | −3.0% | −16.4% | 12,968 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $39.21 | $98K | +18.1% of holding | +0.4% | −14.1% | 16,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $38.02 | $38K | +100.0% of holding | +0.4% | −14.1% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Shah Vivek | director | Purchase | 12,636 @ $39.56 | $500K | +4.7% of holding | +0.7% | −17.0% | 282,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | FAY SARAH ANN | director | Purchase | 1,282 @ $39.00 | $50K | +7.4% of holding | +0.7% | −17.0% | 18,655 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Barsten Jana | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $38.08 | $38K | +29.9% of holding | +0.7% | −17.0% | 4,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Harris Teresa A | director | Purchase | 593 @ $42.11 | $25K | +6.9% of holding | −2.9% | −21.3% | 9,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Ray Neville R | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 14,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | TAYLOR SCOTT C | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 22,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | KRETZMER W BRIAN | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 24,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | McDonald Kirk P | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 14,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | FAY SARAH ANN | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 31,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Harris Teresa A | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 20,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Barsten Jana | director | Option exercise | 7,903 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | FAY SARAH ANN | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | KRETZMER W BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Harris Teresa A | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Barsten Jana | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Ray Neville R | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | McDonald Kirk P | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | TAYLOR SCOTT C | director | Award / grant | 5,723 | 5,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Shah Vivek | director | Award / grant | 122,790 | 122,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | TANSLEY LORI A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,368 | 7,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Award / grant | 22,717 | 22,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Award / grant | 42,977 | 42,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,047 | 47,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Withheld for tax | 648 | 21,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Option exercise | 1,808 | 22,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Option exercise | 3,695 | 49,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Option exercise | 1,808 | 1,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Option exercise | 3,695 | 3,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shah Vivek | director | Withheld for tax | 12,085 | 360,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,674 | 45,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,184 | 20,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shah Vivek | director | Option exercise | 23,674 | 23,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shah Vivek | director | Option exercise | 23,674 | 372,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Option exercise | 3,302 | 3,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Option exercise | 8,722 | 50,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Option exercise | 8,722 | 8,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Option exercise | 3,302 | 21,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Shah Vivek | director | Withheld for tax | 22,139 | 348,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | RICHTER BRET | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,232 | 41,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,950 | 23,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | TANSLEY LORI A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 905 | 2,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ROSSEN JEREMY | officer | Option exercise | 8,078 | 16,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | TANSLEY LORI A. | officer | Option exercise | 2,183 | 3,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Shah Vivek | director | Option exercise | 43,664 | 87,329 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.