YUMC · TickerCove

YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.36 · now $41.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YUMC has typically landed between $35.81 and $47.62 — a range of −13.4% to +15.1% from the issuance price $41.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,471 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-10-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$41.36 · 7% of range

$40.18 low$57.25 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−13.4%worst (p90)+15.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where YUMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $41.36 (+0.0%)
typical $41.14 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $38.68–$43.61
90% range $35.81–$47.62

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,471 windows spanning 2016-10-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-02-10	−27.0%	−27.0%	+7.5%
2025-03-19	−22.9%	−22.9%	+0.0%
2022-03-02	−22.7%	−32.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-09-03	+50.7%	−0.6%	+50.7%
2024-09-06	+48.3%	+0.0%	+51.0%
2024-09-05	+47.4%	−1.2%	+49.1%

2,471 overlapping windows · 2016-10-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.9%

n=10

Feb

70%

+5.8%

n=10

Mar

40%

−2.1%

n=10

Apr

60%

+2.6%

n=10

May

40%

−1.8%

n=10

Jun

60%

+0.9%

n=10

Jul

50%

+1.2%

n=10

Aug

50%

+1.0%

n=10

Sep

30%

+1.1%

n=10

Oct

44%

−2.6%

n=9

Nov

70%

+4.9%

n=10

Dec

30%

−0.6%

n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Sale	19,513 @ $47.07	$918K	−72.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,589	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Sale	3,344 @ $47.14	$158K	−7.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	41,875	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Sale	1,239 @ $47.14	$58K	−3.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	40,636	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Sale	5,313 @ $47.71	$253K	−5.8% of holding	−10.6%	not yet — horizon still open	85,930	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Sale	4,961 @ $47.71	$237K	−5.8% of holding	−10.6%	not yet — horizon still open	80,969	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Sale	4,312 @ $47.74	$206K	−6.4% of holding	−10.6%	not yet — horizon still open	63,541	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24	Lu Xueling	officer	Sale	21,547 @ $55.83	$1.2M	−70.4% of holding	−3.8%	−24.2%	9,042	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24	Lu Xueling	officer	Sale	1,957 @ $55.92	$109K	−6.0% of holding	−3.8%	−24.2%	30,589	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13	Wat Joey	director	Sale	104,000 @ $55.18	$5.7M	−19.4% of holding	−0.4%	−27.8%	433,306	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-11	Wat Joey	director	Sale	4,613 @ $57.01	$263K	−0.9% of holding	−1.3%	−27.8%	537,306	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	Zhang Leila	officer	Sale	5,193 @ $55.25	$287K	−8.0% of holding	−3.7%	−28.0%	59,825	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	DING Jerry	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $55.14	$165K	−76.6% of holding	−3.7%	−28.0%	915	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11	Zhang Leila	officer	Sale	7,689 @ $47.22	$363K	−11.7% of holding	+0.2%	−16.1%	58,262	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24	Wang Warton	officer	Sale	8,187 @ $48.28	$395K	−14.9% of holding	+0.1%	−21.4%	46,847	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Sale	4,888 @ $48.10	$235K	−17.8% of holding	+0.1%	−21.4%	22,510	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20	Kuai Jeff	officer	Sale	5,167 @ $48.00	$248K	−8.4% of holding	−2.3%	−21.3%	56,602	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	DING Jerry	officer	Withheld for tax	594	4,301	Form 4
2026-09-01	DING Jerry	officer	Option exercise	1,318	4,895	Form 4
2026-09-01	DING Jerry	officer	Option exercise	1,318	0	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Disposition	9,240	27,102	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Option exercise	10,479	45,219	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Disposition	4,294	36,342	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Option exercise	7,638	34,740	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Option exercise	10,479	0	Form 4
2026-08-18	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Option exercise	7,638	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Disposition	6,899	74,070	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Option exercise	12,212	80,065	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Disposition	6,217	67,853	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Option exercise	11,178	91,243	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Option exercise	11,178	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Kuai Jeff	officer	Option exercise	12,212	0	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wang Warton	officer	Award / grant	83	12,603	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wang Warton	officer	Award / grant	139	20,964	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wang Warton	officer	Award / grant	41	6,304	Form 4
2026-06-17	Kuai Jeff	officer	Award / grant	78	11,791	Form 4
2026-06-17	DING Jerry	officer	Award / grant	10	1,574	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wat Joey	director	Award / grant	479	72,025	Form 4
2026-06-17	Kuai Jeff	officer	Award / grant	31	4,728	Form 4
2026-06-17	Ding Adrian	officer	Award / grant	127	19,216	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wat Joey	director	Award / grant	581	87,351	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wat Joey	director	Award / grant	299	45,055	Form 4
2026-06-17	Ding Adrian	officer	Award / grant	41	6,259	Form 4
2026-06-17	DING Jerry	officer	Award / grant	46	6,988	Form 4
2026-06-17	Ding Adrian	officer	Award / grant	21	3,154	Form 4
2026-06-17	LIU Pingping	officer	Award / grant	46	6,988	Form 4
2026-06-17	DING Jerry	officer	Award / grant	23	3,600	Form 4
2026-06-17	Zhang Leila	officer	Award / grant	46	6,988	Form 4
2026-06-17	Lu Xueling	officer	Award / grant	26	3,930	Form 4
2026-06-17	Lu Xueling	officer	Award / grant	9	1,460	Form 4
2026-06-17	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Award / grant	72	10,919	Form 4
2026-06-17	Lu Xueling	officer	Award / grant	16	2,519	Form 4
2026-06-17	LIU Pingping	officer	Award / grant	9	1,349	Form 4
2026-06-17	HUANG Duoduo (Howard)	officer	Award / grant	40	6,121	Form 4
2026-06-17	DING Jerry	officer	Award / grant	8	1,316	Form 4
2026-06-17	Kuai Jeff	officer	Award / grant	57	8,642	Form 4
2026-06-17	LIU Pingping	officer	Award / grant	1	266	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i