Issued 2026-09-16 at $137.96 · now $137.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YUM has typically landed between $127.21 and $149.75 — a range of −7.8% to +8.5% from the issuance price $137.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($137.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where YUM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $137.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $137.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $138.38 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $133.97–$142.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $127.21–$149.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +53.6% | +0.0% | +53.6% |
| 2020-03-20 | +39.8% | −2.7% | +44.9% |
| 2020-03-18 | +38.7% | −6.9% | +38.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$41.1B
market cap
$6.21
EPS (TTM)
24.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$8.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-21.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-1.63
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$257.11
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$147.93
- Analyst target · range $160.00–$190.00$180.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$137.96
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
39%
−1.1%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
79%
+5.7%
n=19
May
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
39%
+1.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 268 @ $153.64 | $41K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 261 @ $153.64 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 63,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 3,494 @ $158.00 | $552K | −99.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Russell David Eric | officer | Sale | 7,961 @ $153.15 | $1.2M | −40.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 268 @ $153.15 | $41K | −100.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 261 @ $153.15 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,771 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 6,001 @ $160.42 | $963K | −33.3% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 277 @ $160.42 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 250 @ $160.42 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,032 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 270 @ $148.14 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 261 @ $148.14 | $39K | −100.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Tresvant Sean | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $154.68 | $464K | −48.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 6,001 @ $152.35 | $914K | −25.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,004 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 521 @ $152.00 | $79K | −9.8% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,804 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 427 @ $152.00 | $65K | −10.9% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 414 @ $152.00 | $63K | −8.6% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 396 @ $152.00 | $60K | −9.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 33 @ $152.00 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,924 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 22 @ $152.00 | $3K | −0.5% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 15 @ $152.00 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,789 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 9 @ $152.00 | $1K | −0.2% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,325 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 277 @ $160.48 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 250 @ $160.48 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,552 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 271 @ $154.18 | $42K | −100.0% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 257 @ $154.18 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 287 @ $166.29 | $48K | −100.0% of holding | +0.4% | −17.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 238 @ $166.29 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | −17.8% | 65,059 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 284 @ $166.02 | $47K | −100.0% of holding | +0.7% | −21.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Turner Christopher Lee | director | Sale | 242 @ $166.02 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +0.7% | −21.0% | 65,297 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 5,341 @ $160.16 | $855K | −50.0% of holding | +2.3% | −22.3% | 5,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 2,970 @ $160.80 | $478K | −100.0% of holding | +2.3% | −22.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 1,612 @ $164.63 | $265K | −100.0% of holding | +4.0% | −22.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $161.44 | $1.9M | −45.0% of holding | −0.4% | −20.2% | 14,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 276 @ $153.17 | $42K | −100.0% of holding | +0.4% | −11.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 12,166 @ $149.18 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | +3.1% | −7.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 12,166 @ $149.02 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | +3.1% | −7.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 1,614 @ $150.48 | $243K | −5.7% of holding | −2.2% | −9.3% | 26,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 727 @ $150.48 | $109K | −2.7% of holding | −2.2% | −9.3% | 26,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Powell Aaron | director | Sale | 449 @ $150.48 | $68K | −1.7% of holding | −2.2% | −9.3% | 26,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 1,755 @ $148.81 | $261K | −100.0% of holding | −5.0% | −8.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Burkhardt Erika | officer | Sale | 1,269 @ $149.37 | $190K | −95.2% of holding | −3.7% | −6.8% | 64 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 273 @ $154.27 | $42K | −13.5% of holding | −3.7% | −6.8% | 1,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 275 @ $152.59 | $42K | −13.5% of holding | −10.9% | +4.2% | 1,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Gibbs David W | director | Sale | 5,200 @ $149.80 | $779K | −4.8% of holding | −3.8% | +8.9% | 102,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Gibbs David W | director | Sale | 1,976 @ $149.80 | $296K | −1.9% of holding | −3.8% | +8.9% | 102,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Sale | 270 @ $145.27 | $39K | −13.3% of holding | +0.6% | +2.7% | 1,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Skeans Tracy L | director | Sale | 12,220 @ $148.24 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −2.2% | +3.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Gibbs David W | director | Sale | 5,152 @ $146.84 | $757K | −4.8% of holding | −2.2% | +3.1% | 102,893 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Gibbs David W | director | Sale | 1,954 @ $146.84 | $287K | −1.9% of holding | −2.2% | +3.1% | 102,893 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
251 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 214 | 268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 482 | 482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 482 | 1,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Bratspies Stephen B | director | Award / grant | 310 | 310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Bratspies Stephen B | director | Award / grant | 166 | 166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Tresvant Sean | director | Option exercise | 4,101 | 7,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Tresvant Sean | director | Withheld for tax | 2,035 | 5,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Tresvant Sean | director | Option exercise | 4,101 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Russell David Eric | officer | Disposition | 15,202 | 19,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Russell David Eric | officer | Option exercise | 23,163 | 35,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 215 | 268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 2,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Russell David Eric | officer | Option exercise | 23,163 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 206 | 277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 2,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tresvant Sean | director | Other acquisition | 20 | 4,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tresvant Sean | director | Other acquisition | 20 | 4,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tresvant Sean | director | Other acquisition | 20 | 4,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tresvant Sean | director | Other acquisition | 20 | 4,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 222 | 261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 3,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 3,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Roy Ranjith | officer | Option exercise | 366 | 877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Roy Ranjith | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Roy Ranjith | officer | Option exercise | 366 | 364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 206 | 277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 3,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 3,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Domier Tanya | director | Option exercise | 2,787 | 7,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Disposition | 212 | 271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Oberg Kathleen K. | director | Award / grant | 163 | 163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | director | Option exercise | 483 | 4,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Domier Tanya | director | Option exercise | 2,787 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Oberg Kathleen K. | director | Award / grant | 910 | 910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tresvant Sean | director | Other acquisition | 19 | 4,081 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-06-06 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.