Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.23 · now $8.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YSS has typically landed between $4.65 and $14.87 — a range of −43.4% to +80.7% from the issuance price $8.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
138 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-01-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where YSS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.4 (-22.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.73–$8.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.65–$14.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-27 | −50.6% | −51.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-28 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-08 | −48.1% | −48.1% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-19 | +117.6% | +0.0% | +124.4% |
| 2026-03-17 | +105.1% | −5.4% | +112.4% |
| 2026-03-16 | +100.2% | −10.8% | +100.2% |
138 overlapping windows · 2026-01-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200,170 @ $10.99 | $2.2M | −1.2% of holding | −20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,517,115 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 201,504 @ $11.60 | $2.3M | −1.2% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,717,285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 116,162 @ $13.49 | $1.6M | −0.7% of holding | −35.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,943,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,784 @ $15.28 | $180K | −0.1% of holding | −35.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,931,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 456,310 @ $15.58 | $7.1M | −2.6% of holding | −42.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,059,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 77,743 @ $15.02 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −42.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,515,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,754 @ $15.03 | $207K | −0.1% of holding | −38.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,593,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,574 @ $15.14 | $539K | −0.2% of holding | −41.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,607,147 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,823 @ $15.18 | $2.1M | −0.8% of holding | −44.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,642,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 63,390 @ $15.31 | $971K | −0.4% of holding | −44.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,783,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 752,500 @ $34.00 | $25.6M | +4.4% of holding | −26.9% | −68.0% | 17,846,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Erwin Tami A. | director | Purchase | 2,941 @ $34.00 | $100K | +3.8% of holding | −26.9% | −68.0% | 79,984 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Letarte Tyler | director | Purchase | 1,470 @ $34.00 | $50K | ownership Δ n/a | −26.9% | −68.0% | 1,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
14 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 2,289,366 | 32,915,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 287,789 | 30,483,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Davidson Janine | director | Award / grant | 4,381 | 4,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Wallinger Dirk | director | Award / grant | 569,920 | 10,141,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Frantz Brian D | officer | Award / grant | 10,294 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Messerle Kevin | officer | Award / grant | 80,882 | 80,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Rudra Devjyoti | officer | Award / grant | 23,529 | 358,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | McConville James | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 5,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Brothers Louis R Jr | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 5,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Boyd Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 5,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Erwin Tami A. | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 77,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Palko Monica J. | officer | Award / grant | 54,412 | 54,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Konert Kirk Michael | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 5,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Letarte Tyler | director | Award / grant | 5,294 | 5,294 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.