YPFYPF Sociedad AnónimaEnergy · Oil & Gas Integratedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.65 · now $54.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YPF has typically landed between $44.42 and $72.71 — a range of −18.7% to +33.1% from the issuance price $54.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where YPF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.42worst · -18.7%$72.71best · +33.1%
  • now $54.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $56.19 (+2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.82–$61.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.42–$72.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−72.9%−72.9%+2.3%
2020-02-19−68.4%−73.4%+0.5%
2020-02-21−64.5%−73.2%+0.0%
3 best
2022-08-10+78.3%+0.0%+78.3%
2020-10-28+74.2%+0.0%+74.2%
2023-11-13+73.2%+0.0%+73.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
35%
−4.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
45%
−2.5%
n=20
May
70%
+5.9%
n=20
Jun
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Jul
50%
+2.4%
n=20
Aug
35%
−0.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
−3.0%
n=20
Oct
50%
+4.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+10.8%
n=20
Dec
55%
+4.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$58$242026-07-02: 3 insider purchases, $533K — Farina Matias Osvaldo, Marin Horacio Daniel …2026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $10K — Maquieyra Martin2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $4K — Maquieyra Martin2026-03-25: 2 insider sales, $150K — Martin Mauricio Alejandro …2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $555K — Aldeco Marcelo Gustavo2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $704K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $4K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $10K2026-07: 3 open-market purchases, $533K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Farina Matias Osvaldo — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Farina Matias Osvaldo — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Marin Horacio Daniel — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Maquieyra Martin — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 10 days after the tradedirector Maquieyra Martin — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Martin Mauricio Alejandro — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Martin Mauricio Alejandro — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aldeco Marcelo Gustavo — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02Farina Matias OsvaldoofficerPurchase4,357 @ $46.26$202K+8.5% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open55,687Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Farina Matias OsvaldoofficerPurchase4,518 @ $44.21$200K+22.7% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open24,405Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Marin Horacio DanieldirectorPurchase2,840 @ $46.35$132K+3.2% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open92,193Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-29Maquieyra MartindirectorSale218 @ $47.36$10K−100.0% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2026-05-29Maquieyra MartindirectorPurchase77 @ $54.44$4K+54.6% of holding−13.2%not yet — horizon still open218Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-25Martin Mauricio AlejandrodirectorSale2,130 @ $44.21$94K−99.3% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open14Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Martin Mauricio AlejandrodirectorSale1,300 @ $42.60$55K−98.5% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open20Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-19Aldeco Marcelo GustavoofficerSale12,719 @ $43.61$555K−99.2% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open101Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Marin Horacio DanieldirectorAward / grant542,2051,464,135Form 4
2026-08-31Farina Matias OsvaldoofficerAward / grant190,671747,541Form 4
2026-08-31Marin Horacio DanieldirectorWithheld for tax189,7721,274,363Form 4
2026-08-31Martinez Tanoira SantiagoofficerAward / grant155,594754,224Form 4
2026-08-31Martin Mauricio AlejandrodirectorAward / grant154,914155,054Form 4
2026-08-31Fernandez Lahore German VitoofficerAward / grant121,324325,324Form 4
2026-08-31Mata Juan JoseofficerAward / grant114,740146,400Form 4
2026-08-31Tiscornia FlorenciaofficerAward / grant109,996359,556Form 4
2026-08-31Wyss Alejandro LuisofficerAward / grant102,406219,826Form 4
2026-08-31Gallino Gustavo MariaofficerAward / grant100,796212,126Form 4
2026-08-31Westen Maximiliano PedroofficerAward / grant100,002206,742Form 4
2026-08-31Deleonardis LisandroofficerAward / grant99,998217,428Form 4
2026-08-31Garat Guillermo JoseofficerAward / grant99,998173,238Form 4
2026-08-31Kearney Pedro LuisofficerAward / grant95,701232,721Form 4
2026-08-31Aldeco Marcelo GustavoofficerAward / grant93,25394,263Form 4
2026-08-31Pitrelli Guillermo Andres FilibertoofficerAward / grant80,542384,872Form 4
2026-08-31Actis Walter ArielofficerAward / grant80,492271,552Form 4
2026-08-31Scarone Andres MarceloofficerAward / grant79,505172,655Form 4
2026-08-31Farina Matias OsvaldoofficerWithheld for tax66,735680,806Form 4
2026-08-31Martinez Tanoira SantiagoofficerWithheld for tax54,458699,766Form 4
2026-08-31Martin Mauricio AlejandrodirectorWithheld for tax54,220100,834Form 4
2026-08-31Fernandez Lahore German VitoofficerWithheld for tax42,464282,860Form 4
2026-08-31Mata Juan JoseofficerWithheld for tax40,159106,241Form 4
2026-08-31Tiscornia FlorenciaofficerWithheld for tax38,499321,057Form 4
2026-08-31Wyss Alejandro LuisofficerWithheld for tax35,843183,983Form 4
2026-08-31Gallino Gustavo MariaofficerWithheld for tax35,279176,847Form 4
2026-08-31Westen Maximiliano PedroofficerWithheld for tax35,001171,741Form 4
2026-08-31Deleonardis LisandroofficerWithheld for tax34,999182,429Form 4
2026-08-31Garat Guillermo JoseofficerWithheld for tax34,999138,239Form 4
2026-08-31Kearney Pedro LuisofficerWithheld for tax33,496199,225Form 4
2026-08-31Berto Carlos AlejandroofficerAward / grant33,10533,105Form 4
2026-08-31Aldeco Marcelo GustavoofficerWithheld for tax32,63961,624Form 4
2026-08-31Azcurra Maria MartinadirectorAward / grant30,020204,310Form 4
2026-08-31Pitrelli Guillermo Andres FilibertoofficerWithheld for tax28,190356,682Form 4
2026-08-31Actis Walter ArielofficerWithheld for tax28,172243,380Form 4
2026-08-31Scarone Andres MarceloofficerWithheld for tax27,827144,828Form 4
2026-08-31Archimbal Maria de las MercedesofficerAward / grant18,68034,110Form 4
2026-08-31Ayala Silvia NoemidirectorAward / grant16,08034,330Form 4
2026-08-31Berto Carlos AlejandroofficerWithheld for tax11,58721,518Form 4
2026-08-31Azcurra Maria MartinadirectorWithheld for tax10,507193,803Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.