Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.67 · now $40.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YOU has typically landed between $32.36 and $51.33 — a range of −20.4% to +26.2% from the issuance price $40.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,288 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where YOU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $40.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.71 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.73–$44.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.36–$51.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-09 | −46.2% | −48.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | −44.6% | −49.0% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-23 | +64.8% | +0.0% | +64.8% |
| 2026-02-24 | +64.0% | +0.0% | +64.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | +57.2% | −4.5% | +57.2% |
1,288 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Barkin Michael Z | director | Sale | 11,444 @ $45.00 | $515K | −49.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | McLaughlin Kyle | officer | Sale | 4,499 @ $44.47 | $200K | −13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,519 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Liu Dennis W. | officer | Sale | 2,104 @ $44.47 | $94K | −11.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,870 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 217,272 @ $60.52 | $13.1M | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 217,272 @ $60.52 | $13.1M | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 71,487 @ $61.11 | $4.4M | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 71,487 @ $61.11 | $4.4M | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 12,110 @ $66.61 | $807K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 12,110 @ $66.61 | $807K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 9,803 @ $64.48 | $632K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 9,803 @ $64.48 | $632K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 6,006 @ $67.67 | $406K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 6,006 @ $67.67 | $406K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 3,096 @ $65.35 | $202K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 3,096 @ $65.35 | $202K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 2,430 @ $63.39 | $154K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 2,430 @ $63.39 | $154K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $62.05 | $74K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $62.05 | $74K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 500 @ $68.45 | $34K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 500 @ $68.45 | $34K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 27,303 @ $53.55 | $1.5M | −18.0% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 27,303 @ $53.55 | $1.5M | −18.0% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $54.01 | $70K | −1.0% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $54.01 | $70K | −1.0% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 120,640 @ $53.40 | $6.4M | −79.5% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 120,640 @ $53.40 | $6.4M | −79.5% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 89,592 @ $53.31 | $4.8M | −59.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 89,592 @ $53.31 | $4.8M | −59.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 10,425 @ $54.28 | $566K | −16.8% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 10,425 @ $54.28 | $566K | −16.8% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 740 @ $55.19 | $41K | −1.4% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 740 @ $55.19 | $41K | −1.4% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 34,309 @ $53.11 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 34,309 @ $53.11 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 196,576 @ $53.21 | $10.5M | −100.0% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 196,576 @ $53.21 | $10.5M | −100.0% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 15,962 @ $53.13 | $848K | −100.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 15,962 @ $53.13 | $848K | −100.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 3,153 @ $53.03 | $167K | −100.0% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 3,153 @ $53.03 | $167K | −100.0% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | McLaughlin Kyle | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $56.20 | $450K | −21.3% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Barkin Michael Z | director | Sale | 11,550 @ $56.29 | $650K | −33.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Schlegel Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,412 @ $59.02 | $260K | −100.0% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 152,513 @ $48.41 | $7.4M | −87.5% of holding | +10.9% | −20.4% | 21,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 152,513 @ $48.41 | $7.4M | −87.5% of holding | +10.9% | −20.4% | 21,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Sale | 21,811 @ $49.24 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +10.9% | −20.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 21,811 @ $49.24 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +10.9% | −20.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
252 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | McLaughlin Kyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,693 | 34,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Liu Dennis W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,955 | 17,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Liu Dennis W. | officer | Option exercise | 10,969 | 10,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Liu Dennis W. | officer | Option exercise | 10,969 | 21,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McLaughlin Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 9,192 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McLaughlin Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 9,192 | 38,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Disposition | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Option exercise | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Award / grant | 323,904 | 323,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Disposition | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Option exercise | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Disposition | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Disposition | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Option exercise | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Award / grant | 323,904 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Award / grant | 323,904 | 323,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Award / grant | 323,904 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Option exercise | 323,904 | 17,806,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Scher Peter | director | Award / grant | 5,636 | 18,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Scher Peter | director | Option exercise | 5,636 | 5,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hsu Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 18,208 | 18,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | O'Hare Robert | director | Award / grant | 8,751 | 8,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | O'Hare Robert | director | Award / grant | 8,751 | 8,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Option exercise | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Option exercise | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Disposition | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Award / grant | 28,603 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Disposition | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Option exercise | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Award / grant | 28,603 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Option exercise | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Disposition | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Award / grant | 28,603 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Award / grant | 28,603 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Disposition | 28,603 | 18,130,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Disposition | 120,640 | 18,158,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Award / grant | 120,640 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Award / grant | 120,640 | 151,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Seidman Becker Caryn | director | Option exercise | 120,640 | 18,158,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Alclear Investments, LLC | director | Option exercise | 120,640 | 18,158,849 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.