Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.99 · now $32.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YORW has typically landed between $30.19 and $35.91 — a range of −8.5% to +8.9% from the issuance price $32.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where YORW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.89 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.77–$34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.19–$35.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −26.7% | −26.7% | +0.4% |
| 2020-02-11 | −24.5% | −24.5% | +1.8% |
| 2008-09-05 | −24.1% | −24.1% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-11-08 | +29.8% | +0.0% | +29.8% |
| 2009-03-09 | +28.5% | +0.0% | +28.5% |
| 2016-11-10 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +28.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.6%
n=20
Mar
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
50%
−0.0%
n=20
May
60%
−0.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.6%
n=20
Sep
35%
−2.1%
n=20
Oct
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 30 @ $34.19 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,532 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Brossman Douglas S | director | Purchase | 30 @ $33.19 | $1K | +6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $33.28 | $266K | −18.5% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,308 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Brossman Douglas S | director | Purchase | 32 @ $30.99 | $1K | +7.7% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 454 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 112 @ $29.11 | $3K | +4.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 112 @ $29.11 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Becker Suzanne M | officer | Purchase | 45 @ $29.11 | $1K | +13.5% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 45 @ $29.11 | $1K | +0.8% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $29.11 | $325 | +0.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $29.11 | $130 | +0.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-19 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 25 @ $29.53 | $738 | +0.1% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,866 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Yanavitch William T. II | director | Purchase | 256 @ $29.35 | $8K | +265.8% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 700 @ $29.30 | $21K | +37.4% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 1,052 @ $28.50 | $30K | +2.6% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 175 @ $28.50 | $5K | +2.1% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 103 @ $29.13 | $3K | +10.6% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 103 @ $29.13 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,280 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Becker Suzanne M | officer | Purchase | 41 @ $29.13 | $1K | +52.8% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 41 @ $29.13 | $1K | +0.8% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Purchase | 12 @ $29.13 | $360 | +3.7% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $29.13 | $300 | +0.2% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $29.13 | $120 | +0.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,276 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 15 @ $31.55 | $473 | +0.0% of holding | −7.1% | −8.8% | 39,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 279 @ $30.45 | $9K | +0.7% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 39,872 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 92 @ $30.45 | $3K | +10.5% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 46 @ $30.45 | $1K | +1.0% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 4,879 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Becker Suzanne M | officer | Purchase | 46 @ $30.45 | $1K | +146.2% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 77 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Purchase | 14 @ $30.45 | $420 | +4.3% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 335 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $30.45 | $350 | +0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 4,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $30.45 | $140 | +0.1% of holding | −2.6% | −17.1% | 8,212 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | Yanavitch William T. II | director | Purchase | 44 @ $33.72 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.1% | −14.1% | 44 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 30 @ $32.11 | $963 | +0.1% of holding | +4.0% | −18.0% | 39,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 338 @ $28.83 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 38,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 45 @ $28.83 | $1K | +0.9% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 4,798 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 34 @ $28.83 | $975 | +4.1% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Becker Suzanne M | officer | Purchase | 31 @ $28.83 | $900 | ownership Δ n/a | +1.5% | −9.6% | 31 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Purchase | 14 @ $28.83 | $390 | +4.5% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $28.83 | $325 | +0.3% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 4,487 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $28.83 | $130 | +0.1% of holding | +1.5% | −9.6% | 8,147 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 15 @ $30.07 | $451 | +0.0% of holding | +1.7% | +7.0% | 38,352 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 200 @ $30.68 | $6K | +0.5% of holding | −3.1% | −1.1% | 38,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 326 @ $29.89 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 38,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 43 @ $29.89 | $1K | +0.9% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 4,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 33 @ $29.89 | $975 | +4.1% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Purchase | 13 @ $29.89 | $390 | +4.5% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $29.89 | $325 | +0.2% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 4,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $29.89 | $130 | +0.1% of holding | −4.7% | −1.1% | 8,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 25 @ $32.07 | $802 | +0.1% of holding | −8.1% | −5.8% | 37,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 294 @ $33.11 | $10K | +0.8% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 35,813 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 39 @ $33.11 | $1K | +1.1% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 3,588 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 29 @ $33.11 | $975 | +7.4% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 427 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Purchase | 12 @ $33.11 | $390 | +53.5% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 34 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $33.11 | $325 | +0.2% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 4,035 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $33.11 | $130 | +0.1% of holding | −20.3% | −37.2% | 6,860 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-28 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Purchase | 20 @ $34.66 | $693 | +0.1% of holding | +2.4% | −31.8% | 35,273 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Lambert Robert F | director | Purchase | 15 @ $32.73 | $500 | ownership Δ n/a | +7.8% | −10.8% | 15 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-16 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Purchase | 42 @ $31.25 | $1K | +1.2% of holding | +2.1% | −7.0% | 3,524 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-16 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Purchase | 24 @ $31.25 | $750 | +6.5% of holding | +2.1% | −7.0% | 395 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-16 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $31.25 | $325 | +0.3% of holding | +2.1% | −7.0% | 3,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-16 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $31.25 | $130 | +0.1% of holding | +2.1% | −7.0% | 6,808 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | McGlaughlin Erin C | director | Award / grant | 154 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Keller Jody L | director | Award / grant | 154 | 4,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wand Laura T | director | Award / grant | 154 | 929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Lambert Robert F | director | Award / grant | 154 | 230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Rasmussen Steven R | director | Award / grant | 154 | 4,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bonney Paul R | director | Award / grant | 154 | 676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Brossman Douglas S | director | Award / grant | 154 | 418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Yanavitch William T. II | director | Award / grant | 51 | 96 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Award / grant | 306 | 4,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Award / grant | 974 | 9,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 796 | 1,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Becker Suzanne M | officer | Award / grant | 208 | 327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,509 | 42,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Award / grant | 883 | 5,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Award / grant | 103 | 35,308 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Award / grant | 297 | 39,304 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | GANG MICHAEL W | director | Award / grant | 179 | 13,089 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Keller Jody L | director | Award / grant | 179 | 4,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Bonney Paul R | director | Award / grant | 179 | 507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | McGlaughlin Erin C | director | Award / grant | 179 | 2,764 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Brossman Douglas S | director | Award / grant | 179 | 256 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | HINES JEFFREY R | director | Award / grant | 179 | 63,635 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | HODGES GEORGE W | director | Award / grant | 179 | 2,136 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Rasmussen Steven R | director | Award / grant | 179 | 4,540 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Wand Laura T | director | Award / grant | 179 | 775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Lambert Robert F | director | Award / grant | 59 | 74 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Poff Matthew E | officer | Award / grant | 1,161 | 8,021 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Chiaruttini Alexandra C | director | Award / grant | 1,053 | 4,641 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Grimm Ashley M | officer | Award / grant | 254 | 288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,703 | 37,516 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Scarpato Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 360 | 787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Snyder Mark S | officer | Award / grant | 365 | 4,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Hand Joseph Thomas | director | Award / grant | 983 | 34,705 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.