Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.39 · now $6.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, YEXT has typically landed between $4.91 and $7.97 — a range of −23.2% to +24.7% from the issuance price $6.39.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,348 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where YEXT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.39 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.34 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.76–$6.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.91–$7.97
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-05 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −40.2% | −40.2% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-09 | +80.8% | +0.0% | +80.8% |
| 2023-05-16 | +76.6% | +0.0% | +78.7% |
| 2023-05-11 | +73.0% | −1.4% | +76.1% |
2,348 overlapping windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Shin Ho | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $6.39 | $192K | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 289,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Englander Daniel J | director | Purchase | 76,190 @ $5.22 | $398K | +117.2% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,190 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Waugh Seth H. | director | Purchase | 133,000 @ $3.75 | $498K | +71.3% of holding | +41.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 319,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Tang Allan | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $3.62 | $36K | −56.0% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Lead Edge Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,824,660 @ $5.75 | $10.5M | −38.7% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,891,892 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Lead Edge Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,589,005 @ $5.75 | $9.1M | −38.7% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,518,405 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Lead Edge Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,535,117 @ $5.75 | $8.8M | −38.7% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,432,999 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Shin Ho | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $8.63 | $259K | −21.1% of holding | −12.7% | −16.6% | 112,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Bond Darryl | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $8.74 | $96K | −2.6% of holding | −12.7% | −16.6% | 412,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Walrath Michael | director | Sale | 29,431 @ $6.47 | $191K | −2.7% of holding | −2.9% | +25.8% | 1,064,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-16 | Walrath Michael | director | Sale | 139,003 @ $6.44 | $895K | −11.3% of holding | −0.2% | +25.9% | 1,093,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Walrath Michael | director | Sale | 250 @ $6.67 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +1.4% | +24.8% | 1,232,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-12 | Bond Darryl | officer | Sale | 22,000 @ $6.92 | $152K | −6.1% of holding | −2.0% | +23.1% | 338,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Shin Ho | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.83 | $137K | −14.0% of holding | −2.0% | +23.1% | 122,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Walrath Michael | director | Sale | 8,242 @ $6.88 | $57K | −0.7% of holding | −2.0% | +23.1% | 1,233,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Walrath Michael | director | Sale | 123,074 @ $7.06 | $868K | −9.0% of holding | −3.3% | +19.5% | 1,241,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
240 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Englander Daniel J | director | Award / grant | 5,284 | 5,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Paul Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 89,058 | 89,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 329,050 | 3,964,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,900 | 755,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,661 | 319,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Tang Allan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,001 | 10,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 3,438 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 566,437 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 14,063 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 78,125 | 234,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Tang Allan | officer | Option exercise | 6,075 | 66,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 23,125 | 138,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 23,125 | 337,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Tang Allan | officer | Option exercise | 6,075 | 13,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 78,125 | 3,726,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 566,437 | 4,293,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 14,063 | 314,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Tang Allan | officer | Option exercise | 6,075 | 13,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 78,125 | 3,726,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Walrath Michael | director | Option exercise | 566,437 | 4,293,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 776,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 3,438 | 738,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 3,438 | 738,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bond Darryl | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 776,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 23,125 | 337,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shin Ho | officer | Option exercise | 14,063 | 314,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davis Mark Steven | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SMITH HILLARY B | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davis Mark Steven | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 89,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SMITH HILLARY B | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 133,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davis Mark Steven | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 89,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SMITH HILLARY B | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 133,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SMITH HILLARY B | director | Award / grant | 43,209 | 43,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Davis Mark Steven | director | Award / grant | 43,209 | 43,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Englander Daniel J | director | Award / grant | 86,419 | 86,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lipson Jesse | director | Option exercise | 27,131 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SHEEHAN ANDREW T | director | Award / grant | 43,209 | 199,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Skorpen Evan | director | Award / grant | 43,209 | 43,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Waugh Seth H. | director | Award / grant | 43,209 | 43,209 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.