Issued 2026-09-16 at $76.63 · now $76.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XYZ has typically landed between $57.10 and $96.40 — a range of −25.5% to +25.8% from the issuance price $76.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,699 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($76.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XYZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $76.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $76.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.22 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.99–$84.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.1–$96.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,699 windows spanning 2015-11-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −55.6% | −55.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −53.1% | −53.7% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −52.1% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-30 | +62.5% | +0.0% | +62.5% |
| 2023-11-01 | +58.8% | +0.0% | +58.8% |
| 2023-10-27 | +58.3% | −2.0% | +58.3% |
2,699 overlapping windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$45.9B
market cap
$1.28
EPS (TTM)
60.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$24.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr5.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr5.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.40
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$30.28
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$43.78
- Analyst target · range $32.00–$105.00$92.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$76.63
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+4.1%
n=11
Feb
73%
+5.9%
n=11
Mar
36%
−1.2%
n=11
Apr
45%
+0.2%
n=11
May
45%
+0.1%
n=11
Jun
82%
+4.6%
n=11
Jul
91%
+11.4%
n=11
Aug
64%
+3.5%
n=11
Sep
45%
−4.4%
n=11
Oct
50%
+1.3%
n=10
Nov
70%
+12.7%
n=10
Dec
36%
−3.4%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.31 | $476K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,398,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.96 | $474K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,404,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.96 | $480K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,410,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.39 | $470K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,416,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.27 | $476K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,422,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.18 | $493K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,428,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.51 | $495K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,434,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $83.57 | $501K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,440,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $77.30 | $464K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,446,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $80.04 | $480K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,452,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.58 | $495K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,458,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $85.12 | $511K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,464,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $84.00 | $504K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,470,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.00 | $492K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,476,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.81 | $491K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,482,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.48 | $489K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,488,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Sale | 4,875 @ $82.92 | $404K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 423,262 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Sale | 4,636 @ $81.91 | $380K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 428,137 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Sale | 4,343 @ $82.90 | $360K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 513,981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Sale | 3,830 @ $81.88 | $314K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 518,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Sale | 1,317 @ $81.48 | $107K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,128 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $80.04 | $480K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,494,672 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Sale | 3,101 @ $80.04 | $248K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,773 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Sale | 584 @ $80.04 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 461,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $80.87 | $485K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.55 | $477K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,506,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.17 | $475K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,512,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.63 | $490K | −0.4% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,518,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.87 | $497K | −0.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,524,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.16 | $475K | −0.4% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,530,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.62 | $472K | −0.4% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,536,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.82 | $473K | −0.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,542,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.47 | $471K | −0.4% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,548,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.90 | $473K | −0.4% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,554,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $83.07 | $498K | −0.4% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,560,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 41,000 @ $85.85 | $3.5M | −2.6% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,566,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Sale | 8,971 @ $85.85 | $770K | −1.9% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 454,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.31 | $494K | −0.4% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,607,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Sale | 25,508 @ $81.63 | $2.1M | −4.6% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 532,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.52 | $489K | −0.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Sale | 400 @ $82.23 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 531,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.27 | $494K | −0.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,619,672 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.17 | $487K | −0.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,625,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.22 | $493K | −0.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,631,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.70 | $490K | −0.4% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,637,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.88 | $473K | −0.4% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,643,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $77.03 | $462K | −0.4% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,649,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-23 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $77.32 | $464K | −0.4% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,655,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.10 | $475K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,661,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.31 | $476K | −0.4% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,667,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.90 | $473K | −0.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,673,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $79.13 | $475K | −0.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,679,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $82.11 | $493K | −0.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,685,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $84.00 | $8.4M | −5.6% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,691,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $82.50 | $2.9M | −1.9% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,791,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $81.48 | $489K | −0.3% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,826,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.58 | $471K | −0.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,832,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.35 | $470K | −0.3% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,838,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-10 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $78.91 | $473K | −0.3% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,844,672 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $76.14 | $457K | −0.3% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,850,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Withheld for tax | 18,401 | 435,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,633 | 462,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,592 | 522,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Esperanza Chrysty | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,376 | 252,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Acosta Andrea | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,709 | 106,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Acosta Andrea | officer | Award / grant | 112,191 | 112,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Carter Shawn Corey | director | Award / grant | 164 | 32,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 263 | 36,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brooks Amy | director | Award / grant | 197 | 30,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Narula Neha | director | Award / grant | 254 | 17,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Meeker Mary G | director | Award / grant | 246 | 425,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Deighton Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 1,955 | 49,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Deighton Paul | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 51,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 4,619 | 36,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Brooks Amy | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 30,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Carter Shawn Corey | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 32,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | GARUTTI RANDALL J | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 39,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | McKelvey James Morgan Jr. | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 16,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Meeker Mary G | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 425,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Narula Neha | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 17,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Eisen Anthony Mathew | director | Award / grant | 3,682 | 1,976,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Withheld for tax | 18,401 | 482,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,651 | 481,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Weber Arnaud | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,005 | 526,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,602 | 609,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Esperanza Chrysty | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,268 | 261,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Esperanza Chrysty | officer | Award / grant | 439 | 268,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Award / grant | 438 | 618,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Award / grant | 438 | 499,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Award / grant | 268,727 | 498,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Esperanza Chrysty | officer | Award / grant | 151,159 | 271,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Award / grant | 117,569 | 618,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Weber Arnaud | officer | Award / grant | 285,523 | 540,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Award / grant | 268,727 | 531,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ahuja Amrita | director | Withheld for tax | 1,337 | 263,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Grassadonia Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,252 | 502,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jennings Owen Britton | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,038 | 230,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Esperanza Chrysty | officer | Withheld for tax | 284 | 120,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Carter Shawn Corey | director | Award / grant | 207 | 28,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Narula Neha | director | Award / grant | 321 | 13,814 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-08 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-11 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-31 | $50–100K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-03-09 | 2025-02-24 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.