XYLXylem Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $107.27 · now $107.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XYL has typically landed between $95.08 and $119.42 — a range of −11.4% to +11.3% from the issuance price $107.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,731 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-10-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($107.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where XYL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $107.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$95.08worst · -11.4%$119.42best · +11.3%
  • now $107.27 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $106.89 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $101.61–$112.16
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $95.08–$119.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,731 windows spanning 2011-10-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−35.8%−35.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−32.2%−32.2%+0.0%
2020-02-24−28.0%−34.3%+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-14+37.0%+0.0%+37.0%
2022-07-18+37.0%+0.0%+37.0%
2022-07-15+33.9%−1.8%+33.9%

3,731 overlapping windows · 2011-10-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$28.5B
market cap
$4.02
EPS (TTM)
29.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$9.0B
'20'25
Net income$957M
'20'25
Free cash flow$910M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.18
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $107.27$102.97$165.30
  • DCF (intrinsic)$144.85
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$123.23
  • Analyst target · range $133.00–$161.00$157.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$107.27

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
47%
−0.8%
n=15
Feb
60%
+2.0%
n=15
Mar
60%
−0.5%
n=15
Apr
73%
+1.7%
n=15
May
47%
−0.4%
n=15
Jun
53%
+1.8%
n=15
Jul
53%
+2.3%
n=15
Aug
47%
+1.3%
n=15
Sep
60%
+0.4%
n=15
Oct
64%
+2.4%
n=14
Nov
80%
+3.6%
n=15
Dec
40%
−0.2%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$151$1062026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $501K — McShane Geri-Michelle2026-05-04: 1 insider purchase, $141K — Peribere Jerome A2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $252K — Harker Victoria D2025-10-30: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Toussaint Claudia S2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $140K — McShane Geri-Michelle2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $689K — Glatch Lisa2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $948K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $140K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $252K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $141K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $501K↑ buys↓ salesofficer McShane Geri-Michelle — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Peribere Jerome A — Purchase on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Harker Victoria D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Toussaint Claudia S — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McShane Geri-Michelle — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector Glatch Lisa — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-07McShane Geri-MichelleofficerSale4,269 @ $117.46$501K−54.2% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open3,605Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Peribere Jerome AdirectorPurchase1,210 @ $116.61$141K+4.7% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open27,209Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-04Harker Victoria DdirectorSale1,700 @ $148.14$252K−9.2% of holding−7.0%−31.2%16,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-30Toussaint Claudia SofficerSale10,421 @ $152.64$1.6M−25.0% of holding−7.8%−30.0%31,250Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05McShane Geri-MichelleofficerSale1,000 @ $139.96$140K−25.3% of holding+2.6%−17.0%2,957Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18Glatch LisadirectorSale4,900 @ $140.66$689K−48.7% of holding−2.1%−15.0%5,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Harker Victoria DdirectorSale1,800 @ $143.63$259K−8.8% of holding−4.7%−13.1%18,575Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07McShane Geri-MichelleofficerSale4,119 @ $128.18$528K−51.0% of holding−8.5%−5.5%3,950Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Capers Dorothy TrefonofficerSale12,026 @ $127.26$1.5M−60.0% of holding−4.7%−1.9%8,015Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01van der Berg Andrea MicheleofficerAward / grant6,0346,034Form 4
2026-09-01Johnston Joseph PatrickofficerAward / grant2,2982,298Form 4
2026-09-01Johnston Joseph PatrickofficerAward / grant6452,285Form 4
2026-09-01van der Berg Andrea MicheleofficerAward / grant1,69310,691Form 4
2026-08-13KOCH D CHRISTIANdirectorAward / grant1,2471,247Form 4
2026-05-14FRIEL ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant2,48138,706Form 4
2026-05-14Tretikov LiladirectorAward / grant1,71110,406Form 4
2026-05-14Harker Victoria DdirectorAward / grant1,71118,586Form 4
2026-05-14Glatch LisadirectorAward / grant1,7116,874Form 4
2026-05-14ELLIS EARL RAYdirectorAward / grant1,7116,038Form 4
2026-05-14Morelli Mark DdirectorAward / grant1,7118,026Form 4
2026-05-14Yadav UdaydirectorAward / grant1,71110,337Form 4
2026-05-14Peribere Jerome AdirectorAward / grant1,7115,747Form 4
2026-05-07McShane Geri-MichelleofficerOption exercise3,1477,874Form 4
2026-05-07McShane Geri-MichelleofficerOption exercise3,1470Form 4
2026-03-05Pine Matthew FrancisdirectorWithheld for tax1,84645,105Form 4
2026-03-05Grogan William KdirectorWithheld for tax64139,510Form 4
2026-03-05Toussaint Claudia SofficerWithheld for tax3059,037Form 4
2026-03-05McGann Michael J.officerWithheld for tax23811,987Form 4
2026-03-05Aulick RodneyofficerWithheld for tax23473,683Form 4
2026-03-05Cho AlbertofficerWithheld for tax17716,411Form 4
2026-03-05Emmerich MeredithofficerWithheld for tax1585,447Form 4
2026-03-05Cozad StacyofficerWithheld for tax702,233Form 4
2026-03-05McShane Geri-MichelleofficerWithheld for tax644,727Form 4
2026-03-05Yarkadas HayatiofficerWithheld for tax4133,540Form 4
2026-03-02Pine Matthew FrancisdirectorAward / grant57,38657,386Form 4
2026-03-02Grogan William KdirectorAward / grant18,22818,228Form 4
2026-03-02Yarkadas HayatiofficerAward / grant8,1028,102Form 4
2026-03-02Toussaint Claudia SofficerAward / grant7,0897,089Form 4
2026-03-02Grogan William KdirectorWithheld for tax5,88840,729Form 4
2026-03-02Aulick RodneyofficerAward / grant5,7395,739Form 4
2026-03-02Emmerich MeredithofficerAward / grant5,7395,739Form 4
2026-03-02McGann Michael J.officerAward / grant5,7395,739Form 4
2026-03-02Cozad StacyofficerAward / grant5,5705,570Form 4
2026-03-02Pine Matthew FrancisdirectorWithheld for tax4,92750,114Form 4
2026-03-02Cho AlbertofficerAward / grant3,7133,713Form 4
2026-03-02Toussaint Claudia SofficerWithheld for tax2,58010,741Form 4
2026-03-02Pine Matthew FrancisdirectorWithheld for tax2,31646,951Form 4
2026-03-02McShane Geri-MichelleofficerAward / grant2,1942,194Form 4
2026-03-02McGann Michael J.officerWithheld for tax2,07312,948Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-06$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.