XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.77 · now $3.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XPOF has typically landed between $2.51 and $5.05 — a range of −33.4% to +34.0% from the issuance price $3.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,272 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where XPOF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.51worst · -33.4%$5.05best · +34.0%
  • now $3.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.73 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.16–$4.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.51–$5.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,272 windows spanning 2021-07-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-12−56.9%−56.9%+6.8%
2025-02-18−50.8%−57.1%+0.0%
2025-02-13−50.2%−59.6%+0.0%
3 best
2024-05-20+85.0%+0.0%+85.0%
2024-05-21+78.9%−4.0%+78.9%
2024-05-23+78.6%+0.0%+86.4%

1,272 overlapping windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+2.4%
n=5
Feb
20%
−12.8%
n=5
Mar
80%
+20.0%
n=5
Apr
60%
−3.2%
n=5
May
20%
−13.3%
n=5
Jun
40%
+2.6%
n=5
Jul
80%
+16.9%
n=5
Aug
33%
−7.1%
n=6
Sep
17%
−8.9%
n=6
Oct
40%
+3.3%
n=5
Nov
60%
+9.7%
n=5
Dec
60%
+3.0%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$42026-05-20: 3 insider purchases, $160K — Voss Capital, LP …2026-05-19: 18 insider purchases, $804K — Voss Capital, LP …2025-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $537K — HAASE BRUCE N2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $537K2026-05: 21 open-market purchases, $964K↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Voss Capital, LP — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HAASE BRUCE N — Purchase on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase12,074 @ $5.50$66K+1.3% of holding+20.2%not yet — horizon still open912,261Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase12,073 @ $5.50$66K+1.3% of holding+20.2%not yet — horizon still open924,334Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,002 @ $5.50$28K+2.8% of holding+20.2%not yet — horizon still open184,324Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase26,656 @ $4.70$125K+3.3% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open832,507Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase26,656 @ $4.70$125K+3.2% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open859,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase23,599 @ $4.64$110K+3.1% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open782,252Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase23,599 @ $4.64$110K+3.0% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open805,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase11,800 @ $4.77$56K+1.3% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open888,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase11,799 @ $4.77$56K+1.3% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open900,187Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase11,044 @ $4.70$52K+6.9% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open170,822Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase9,778 @ $4.64$45K+6.5% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open159,778Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase4,889 @ $4.77$23K+2.8% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open179,322Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase4,720 @ $4.83$23K+0.5% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open868,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase4,720 @ $4.83$23K+0.5% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open863,883Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,969 @ $4.77$19K+0.5% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open872,619Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,969 @ $4.77$19K+0.5% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open876,588Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,956 @ $4.83$9K+1.1% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open172,778Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,645 @ $4.77$8K+1.0% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open174,433Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase24 @ $4.83$116+0.0% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open868,627Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase23 @ $4.83$111+0.0% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open868,650Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Voss Capital, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase10 @ $4.83$48+0.0% of holding+39.4%not yet — horizon still open172,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12HAASE BRUCE NdirectorPurchase70,000 @ $7.67$537K+269.9% of holding+9.1%−1.7%95,937Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Nuzzo MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax22,221879,272Form 4
2026-07-01Parent Haughey NicoledirectorAward / grant4,15825,963Form 4
2026-07-01Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant4,41146,204Form 4
2026-07-01Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant4,88188,927Form 4
2026-07-01Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant4,77340,417Form 4
2026-06-29Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant15,95935,644Form 4
2026-06-29Parent Haughey NicoledirectorAward / grant15,95921,805Form 4
2026-06-29Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant15,95941,793Form 4
2026-06-29Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant15,95984,046Form 4
2026-06-11Parra Danielle PortoofficerAward / grant219,905219,905Form 4
2026-04-06Parent Haughey NicoledirectorAward / grant4,3045,846Form 4
2026-04-06Parent Haughey NicoledirectorAward / grant1,5421,542Form 4
2026-04-01Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant5,77268,087Form 4
2026-04-01HAASE BRUCE NdirectorAward / grant4,789107,648Form 4
2026-04-01Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant3,76319,685Form 4
2026-04-01Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant4,27625,834Form 4
2026-03-04Meloun John PofficerWithheld for tax29,738326,026Form 4
2026-03-03O'Connor Gavin M.officerAward / grant93,751231,602Form 4
2026-03-03Nuzzo MichaeldirectorAward / grant468,755901,493Form 4
2026-03-03Weiderhoft Timothy PaulofficerAward / grant121,876183,619Form 4
2026-03-03Meloun John PofficerAward / grant105,001355,764Form 4
2026-01-13Weiderhoft Timothy PaulofficerWithheld for tax9,73961,743Form 4
2026-01-01Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant2,73115,922Form 4
2026-01-01Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant4,09662,315Form 4
2026-01-01HAASE BRUCE NdirectorAward / grant3,398102,859Form 4
2026-01-01Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant3,03421,558Form 4
2025-11-24O'Connor Gavin M.officerAward / grant137,851137,851Form 4
2025-10-09Hagopian AndrewofficerWithheld for tax26,425218,186Form 4
2025-10-01Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant3,97013,191Form 4
2025-10-01Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant4,24758,219Form 4
2025-10-01HAASE BRUCE NdirectorAward / grant3,52499,461Form 4
2025-10-01Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant3,14618,524Form 4
2025-08-25Lee Rachel H.directorAward / grant9,2219,221Form 4
2025-08-21Nuzzo MichaeldirectorAward / grant216,369216,369Form 4
2025-08-21Nuzzo MichaeldirectorAward / grant216,369432,738Form 4
2025-07-01HAASE BRUCE NdirectorAward / grant4,32325,937Form 4
2025-07-01Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant3,75815,378Form 4
2025-07-01Grabowski MarkdirectorAward / grant4,35553,972Form 4
2025-06-17King Mark JamesdirectorWithheld for tax14,480309,269Form 4
2025-06-16Yang Tseli LilydirectorAward / grant11,62011,620Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.