Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.52 · now $5.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XPER has typically landed between $4.53 and $6.56 — a range of −17.9% to +18.8% from the issuance price $5.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,562 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-05-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XPER has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.42 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.01–$5.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.53–$6.56
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-08-03 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-08-05 | −32.0% | −32.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-08-07 | −31.9% | −31.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-04 | +58.1% | +0.0% | +58.1% |
| 2020-10-28 | +55.0% | −0.9% | +55.0% |
| 2020-11-02 | +54.1% | +0.0% | +55.5% |
1,562 overlapping windows · 2020-05-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Gorman Jeremi | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 78,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | SEAMS CHRISTOPHER A | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 130,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Randall Roderick K. | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 78,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Antonellis Darcy | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 125,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Habiger David C | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 129,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Durr Laura | director | Award / grant | 29,320 | 111,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 226,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Andersen Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 97,500 | 386,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | MILNE MATTHEW | officer | Award / grant | 140,625 | 403,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Award / grant | 215,833 | 822,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Skaaden Geir | officer | Award / grant | 112,500 | 401,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Withheld for tax | 71,152 | 606,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Skaaden Geir | officer | Withheld for tax | 41,521 | 288,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Andersen Robert J | officer | Withheld for tax | 38,504 | 288,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MILNE MATTHEW | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,508 | 262,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,595 | 166,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Gift | 7,305 | 678,049 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,943 | 179,629 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Randall Roderick K. | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 48,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Durr Laura | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 82,241 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Antonellis Darcy | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 96,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Gorman Jeremi | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 48,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Habiger David C | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 99,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | SEAMS CHRISTOPHER A | director | Award / grant | 25,815 | 100,949 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Withheld for tax | 54,142 | 682,264 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Skaaden Geir | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,538 | 330,328 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Andersen Robert J | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,262 | 327,465 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | MILNE MATTHEW | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,970 | 279,346 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,017 | 193,810 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | MILNE MATTHEW | officer | Award / grant | 83,603 | 296,316 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Award / grant | 178,353 | 735,001 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 55,735 | 199,827 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Skaaden Geir | officer | Award / grant | 100,323 | 361,866 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Andersen Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 94,750 | 355,727 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | KIRCHNER JON | director | Withheld for tax | 33,544 | 556,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Skaaden Geir | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,251 | 261,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Andersen Robert J | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,121 | 260,977 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | MILNE MATTHEW | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,450 | 212,713 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,594 | 144,092 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Marquez Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 6,500 | 147,686 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.