XPELXPEL, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.74 · now $45.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XPEL has typically landed between $36.70 and $56.11 — a range of −19.8% to +22.7% from the issuance price $45.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,601 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-10-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where XPEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$36.7worst · -19.8%$56.11best · +22.7%
  • now $45.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.7 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.89–$49.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.7–$56.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,601 windows spanning 2006-10-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-12-31−88.0%−88.0%+0.0%
2008-09-22−80.0%−80.0%+5.3%
2008-08-22−77.2%−77.2%+3.8%
3 best
2009-07-07+333.3%+0.0%+566.7%
2009-07-08+275.0%−25.0%+400.0%
2010-12-29+262.9%+0.0%+343.5%

3,601 overlapping windows · 2006-10-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+9.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Apr
55%
+5.8%
n=20
May
50%
+3.6%
n=20
Jun
65%
+7.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+13.8%
n=20
Aug
79%
+17.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
+7.7%
n=19
Oct
26%
−9.4%
n=19
Nov
55%
+10.2%
n=20
Dec
35%
−1.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$55$32↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-16Klonne MikedirectorSale5,000 @ $37.46$187K−10.0% of holding−4.4%−7.3%45,008Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise4411,324Form 4
2026-09-10North John FdirectorOption exercise4411,324Form 4
2026-09-10BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise4418,907Form 4
2026-09-10BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise4418,907Form 4
2026-09-10North John FdirectorOption exercise44110,716Form 4
2026-09-10North John FdirectorOption exercise44110,716Form 4
2026-09-10North John FdirectorOption exercise44110,716Form 4
2026-09-10BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise4418,907Form 4
2026-09-10North John FdirectorOption exercise44110,716Form 4
2026-09-10BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise4418,907Form 4
2026-07-30Thornton Mark AndrewdirectorOther acquisition1,7650Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorWithheld for tax7371,087,570Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorWithheld for tax4851,085,281Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerWithheld for tax23531,302Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerWithheld for tax15630,569Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerOption exercise637637Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorAward / grant3,0261,088,307Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorOption exercise1,9901,991Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerAward / grant96831,537Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerOption exercise63730,725Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorOption exercise1,9901,085,766Form 4
2026-06-19Wood BarryofficerOption exercise63730,725Form 4
2026-06-19Pape RyandirectorOption exercise1,9901,085,766Form 4
2026-06-16Klonne MikedirectorOption exercise5320Form 4
2026-06-16North John FdirectorOption exercise5320Form 4
2026-06-16Crumly Richard K.directorOption exercise5320Form 4
2026-06-16BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise5320Form 4
2026-06-16North John FdirectorOption exercise53210,275Form 4
2026-06-16BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise5328,466Form 4
2026-06-16Crumly Richard K.directorOption exercise5325,866Form 4
2026-06-16Klonne MikedirectorOption exercise5324,248Form 4
2026-06-16North John FdirectorOption exercise53210,275Form 4
2026-06-16Klonne MikedirectorOption exercise5324,248Form 4
2026-06-16Crumly Richard K.directorOption exercise5325,866Form 4
2026-06-16BOGART STACY LdirectorOption exercise5328,466Form 4
2026-06-10Klonne MikedirectorAward / grant1,7651,765Form 4
2026-06-10BOGART STACY LdirectorAward / grant1,7651,765Form 4
2026-06-10Thornton Mark AndrewdirectorAward / grant1,7651,765Form 4
2026-06-10Crumly Richard K.directorAward / grant1,7651,765Form 4
2026-06-10North John FdirectorAward / grant1,7651,765Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.