Issued 2026-09-16 at $163.32 · now $163.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XOM has typically landed between $148.22 and $185.33 — a range of −9.2% to +13.5% from the issuance price $163.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($163.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XOM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $163.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $163.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $166.59 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $159.06–$174.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.22–$185.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −44.7% | −44.7% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +34.0% | +0.0% | +39.5% |
| 2021-12-31 | +32.1% | +0.0% | +32.1% |
| 2020-11-06 | +32.0% | +0.0% | +32.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$121.78
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$120.21
- Analyst target · range $123.00–$185.00$171.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$163.32
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $155.50 | $168K | −5.9% of holding | −10.1% | −5.4% | 17,124 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 2,150 @ $157.82 | $339K | −10.6% of holding | +15.0% | −7.3% | 18,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 3,230 @ $149.18 | $482K | −13.7% of holding | +3.4% | −5.2% | 20,354 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 4,350 @ $139.75 | $608K | −15.6% of holding | +10.4% | +1.2% | 23,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 650 @ $139.75 | $91K | −2.3% of holding | +10.4% | +1.2% | 27,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $117.19 | $352K | −9.5% of holding | +9.9% | +7.7% | 28,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $118.75 | $356K | −8.7% of holding | +7.7% | +11.7% | 31,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 2,158 @ $110.45 | $238K | −13.5% of holding | −0.7% | +29.1% | 13,829 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $113.00 | $237K | −11.6% of holding | −4.5% | −14.4% | 15,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $110.00 | $231K | −10.4% of holding | +3.6% | −7.1% | 18,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | Braly Angela F | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 33,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | KANDARIAN STEVEN A | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hietala Kaisa | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 20,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | KELLNER LAWRENCE W | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Garland Greg C. | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 10,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dreyfus Maria S. | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 40,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | HARRIS JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 15,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | UBBEN JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 20,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 23,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | HOOLEY JOSEPH L | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 23,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Powell Dina H. | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Karsner Alexander | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Gift | 335 | 1,032,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Gift | 335 | 1,031,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Gift | 335 | 3,787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Gift | 335 | 1,031,996 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Gift | 335 | 1,032,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Gift | 17,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Williams Jack P Jr | officer | Gift | 5,000 | 1,031,741 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,693 | 241,295 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 25 | 1,954 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,880 | 267,760 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fox Leonard M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,543 | 308,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Gibbs Jon M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,798 | 398,988 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,062 | 248,988 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 37 | 1,979 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Woods Darren W | director | Withheld for tax | 40,334 | 1,955,449 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,849 | 1,033,001 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Williams Jack P Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,744 | 1,036,741 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,760 | 272,640 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Gibbs Jon M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,639 | 402,786 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Williams Jack P Jr | officer | Award / grant | 117,800 | 1,053,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Chapman Neil A | officer | Award / grant | 117,800 | 1,051,850 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Award / grant | 69,400 | 251,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Chapman James R. | officer | Award / grant | 32,600 | 192,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Fox Leonard M. | officer | Award / grant | 45,700 | 312,778 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Taylor Jeffrey Allen | officer | Award / grant | 50,700 | 137,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Crocker Matthew Richard | officer | Award / grant | 300 | 2,016 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Talley Darrin L | officer | Award / grant | 50,700 | 278,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Ammann Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 102,800 | 475,841 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| James A. Himes | House | sale | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-20 | $15–50K |
| Kevin Hern | House | exchange | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-02 | $100–250K |
| Kevin Hern | House | exchange | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-02 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-18 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $50–100K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2026-02-15 | 2026-01-08 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $50–100K |
| Katie Britt | Senate | sale | 2026-01-26 | 2025-04-30 | $1–15K |
| Katie Britt | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-26 | 2025-04-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.