Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.98 · now $8.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XLO has typically landed between $5.76 and $13.41 — a range of −35.9% to +49.3% from the issuance price $8.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,196 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.69 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.65–$9.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.76–$13.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-11-02 | −63.2% | −64.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-11-03 | −62.5% | −62.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-16 | −60.6% | −61.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-29 | +115.7% | −9.9% | +115.7% |
| 2024-03-01 | +105.4% | −11.3% | +112.3% |
| 2024-03-12 | +102.8% | −4.7% | +128.1% |
1,196 overlapping windows · 2021-10-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Shannon James Samuel | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.79 | $44K | +100.0% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,739,000 @ $0.53 | $2.0M | +10.2% of holding | −6.9% | −4.0% | 40,384,266 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Sale | 7,030 @ $0.64 | $5K | −22.1% of holding | −18.5% | −11.0% | 24,766 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Sale | 1,826 @ $0.64 | $1K | −22.3% of holding | −18.5% | −11.0% | 6,371 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Shannon James Samuel | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $0.69 | $17K | +55.6% of holding | +3.3% | −16.5% | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Shannon James Samuel | director | Purchase | 45,000 @ $0.69 | $31K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.2% | −18.8% | 45,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Russo Rene | director | Purchase | 36,289 @ $0.68 | $25K | +14.8% of holding | +1.2% | −18.8% | 281,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | +133.7% of holding | −0.3% | −6.9% | 23,310,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | +133.7% of holding | −0.3% | −6.9% | 23,310,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,335,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −6.9% | 13,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Sale | 6,954 @ $0.98 | $7K | −35.9% of holding | −41.7% | −40.4% | 12,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Sale | 1,803 @ $0.98 | $2K | −36.1% of holding | −41.7% | −40.4% | 3,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,092,816 @ $1.04 | $6.3M | +156.9% of holding | −1.1% | −28.2% | 9,975,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,759,978 @ $1.04 | $1.8M | +24.0% of holding | −1.1% | −28.2% | 9,105,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Shannon James Samuel | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bello Akintunde Olatokumbo | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Xu Yuan | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bonstein Sara | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Brennan Aoife | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Curran Daniel J. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ROSS ROBERT W. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Blanchard Cheryl R | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Luptakova Katarina | officer | Option exercise | 16,625 | 33,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Option exercise | 19,375 | 38,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Russo Rene | director | Option exercise | 44,250 | 88,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Luptakova Katarina | officer | Option exercise | 16,625 | 33,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Russo Rene | director | Option exercise | 44,250 | 325,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Luptakova Katarina | officer | Option exercise | 16,625 | 33,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Option exercise | 19,375 | 31,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 8,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Option exercise | 19,375 | 31,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Russo Rene | director | Option exercise | 44,250 | 325,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 8,197 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Award / grant | 668,789 | 668,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Award / grant | 95,221 | 95,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 1,500,258 | 1,500,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Luptakova Katarina | officer | Award / grant | 451,885 | 451,885 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 13,335,000 | 36,645,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 13,335,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 2,075,000 | 2,075,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Brennan Kevin M. | officer | Award / grant | 131,700 | 131,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Frankenfield Christopher James | officer | Award / grant | 925,000 | 925,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Luptakova Katarina | officer | Award / grant | 625,000 | 625,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 239,703 | 239,703 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Disposition | 473,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 473,334 | 473,334 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Disposition | 135,134 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 135,134 | 135,134 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Disposition | 50,041 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 50,041 | 50,041 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Disposition | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Russo Rene | director | Disposition | 150,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.