XHR · TickerCove

XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motelas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.54 · now $17.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XHR has typically landed between $15.09 and $19.99 — a range of −14.0% to +14.0% from the issuance price $17.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,900 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-02-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.54 · 56% of range

$11.99 low$21.82 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.6%

typical move · IQR 11.4%

−14.0%worst (p90)+14.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where XHR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.54 (+0.0%)
typical $17.64 (+0.6%)
middle 50% $16.64–$18.64
90% range $15.09–$19.99

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,900 windows spanning 2015-02-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−64.8%	−64.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−58.6%	−64.2%	+0.7%
2020-02-20	−58.5%	−64.2%	+0.6%
3 best
2020-10-30	+79.4%	+0.0%	+82.8%
2020-11-04	+78.9%	−0.1%	+78.9%
2020-10-28	+75.8%	−1.9%	+79.3%

2,900 overlapping windows · 2015-02-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.4%

n=11

Feb

55%

+1.9%

n=11

Mar

42%

−1.8%

n=12

Apr

25%

−1.3%

n=12

May

58%

+2.9%

n=12

Jun

58%

+1.6%

n=12

Jul

67%

+0.4%

n=12

Aug

25%

−1.6%

n=12

Sep

42%

−1.4%

n=12

Oct

36%

−0.5%

n=11

Nov

64%

+7.8%

n=11

Dec

55%

+1.5%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-07	SHAH ATISH	director	Sale	120,000 @ $17.00	$2.0M	−32.4% of holding	+7.7%	not yet — horizon still open	250,805	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06	Johnson Joseph T	officer	Sale	24,916 @ $16.69	$416K	−27.6% of holding	+9.4%	not yet — horizon still open	65,396	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Sale	151,909 @ $15.73	$2.4M	−90.9% of holding	−0.6%	+10.4%	15,233	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Sale	50,599 @ $15.62	$791K	−23.2% of holding	+4.8%	+16.4%	167,142	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-14	Moorehead Terrence	director	Award / grant	6,098	34,299	Form 4
2026-05-14	GOULET, BEVERLY K.	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	Gartland Thomas M	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	Isaacs-Lowe Arlene	director	Award / grant	6,098	34,299	Form 4
2026-05-14	OKLAK DENNIS D	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	OKLAK DENNIS D	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	BASS KEITH E	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	BASS KEITH E	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	Gartland Thomas M	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	GOULET, BEVERLY K.	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-05-14	Isaacs-Lowe Arlene	director	Award / grant	6,098	34,299	Form 4
2026-05-14	McCormick Mary E	director	Award / grant	6,098	71,938	Form 4
2026-02-24	Johnson Joseph T	officer	Award / grant	9,047	122,458	Form 4
2026-02-24	VERBAAS MARCEL	director	Award / grant	55,853	1,576,273	Form 4
2026-02-24	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Award / grant	27,534	710,509	Form 4
2026-02-24	SHAH ATISH	director	Award / grant	23,600	227,570	Form 4
2026-02-24	Kessel Taylor C.	officer	Award / grant	14,160	182,693	Form 4
2026-02-24	Johnson Joseph T	officer	Award / grant	9,047	122,458	Form 4
2026-02-24	VERBAAS MARCEL	director	Award / grant	55,853	1,576,273	Form 4
2026-02-24	SHAH ATISH	director	Award / grant	23,600	227,570	Form 4
2026-02-24	Kessel Taylor C.	officer	Award / grant	14,160	182,693	Form 4
2026-02-24	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Award / grant	27,534	710,509	Form 4
2026-01-08	Johnson Joseph T	officer	Award / grant	55,428	113,411	Form 4
2026-01-08	Kessel Taylor C.	officer	Award / grant	80,622	168,533	Form 4
2026-01-08	SHAH ATISH	director	Award / grant	131,012	203,970	Form 4
2026-01-08	VERBAAS MARCEL	director	Award / grant	347,688	1,520,420	Form 4
2026-01-08	VERBAAS MARCEL	director	Award / grant	347,688	1,520,420	Form 4
2026-01-08	SHAH ATISH	director	Award / grant	131,012	203,970	Form 4
2026-01-08	Johnson Joseph T	officer	Award / grant	55,428	113,411	Form 4
2026-01-08	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Award / grant	171,324	682,975	Form 4
2026-01-08	Kessel Taylor C.	officer	Award / grant	80,622	168,533	Form 4
2026-01-08	BLOOM BARRY A N	officer	Award / grant	171,324	682,975	Form 4
2025-05-13	GOULET, BEVERLY K.	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4
2025-05-13	Gartland Thomas M	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4
2025-05-13	BASS KEITH E	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4
2025-05-13	Isaacs-Lowe Arlene	director	Award / grant	8,117	28,201	Form 4
2025-05-13	McCormick Mary E	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4
2025-05-13	Moorehead Terrence	director	Award / grant	8,117	28,201	Form 4
2025-05-13	OKLAK DENNIS D	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4
2025-05-13	McCormick Mary E	director	Award / grant	8,117	65,840	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i