Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.51 · now $3.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XFOR has typically landed between $1.99 and $5.32 — a range of −43.3% to +51.6% from the issuance price $3.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,194 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XFOR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.29 (-6.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.79–$3.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.99–$5.32
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-06-27 | −86.6% | −86.6% | +0.0% |
| 2018-06-26 | −86.1% | −86.1% | +0.0% |
| 2018-06-22 | −85.6% | −85.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-10-30 | +194.7% | −12.1% | +194.7% |
| 2018-10-29 | +194.4% | −7.9% | +194.4% |
| 2018-11-09 | +186.9% | −15.3% | +186.9% |
2,194 overlapping windows · 2017-11-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Craig Adam R | director | Sale | 47,436 @ $4.44 | $211K | −12.6% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Volpone John | officer | Sale | 24,576 @ $4.44 | $109K | −8.5% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Sale | 8,543 @ $4.26 | $36K | −4.8% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Sale | 16,961 @ $4.29 | $73K | −8.8% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Craig Adam R | director | Purchase | 86,206 @ $2.90 | $250K | +29.7% of holding | +23.3% | +29.2% | 376,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Baldry Mark | officer | Purchase | 1,032 @ $2.48 | $3K | +4.2% of holding | −6.7% | +12.7% | 25,337 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Ragan Paula | director | Sale | 76,473 @ $0.45 | $35K | −6.6% of holding | −6.4% | −90.5% | 1,087,386 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Mostafa Adam S. | officer | Sale | 74,773 @ $0.45 | $34K | −100.0% of holding | −6.4% | −90.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Baldry Mark | officer | Sale | 29,159 @ $0.45 | $13K | −23.7% of holding | −6.4% | −90.5% | 94,123 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | DiBiase Mary | officer | Sale | 22,258 @ $0.45 | $10K | −4.3% of holding | −6.4% | −90.5% | 490,980 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Arbet-Engels Christophe | officer | Sale | 11,624 @ $0.45 | $5K | −45.0% of holding | −6.4% | −90.5% | 14,207 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-15 | Baldry Mark | officer | Purchase | 13,404 @ $0.34 | $5K | +11.6% of holding | +79.8% | −77.3% | 129,173 | Form 4 · filed 91 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-17 | Baldry Mark | officer | Purchase | 21,646 @ $0.68 | $15K | +23.0% of holding | +0.4% | −67.8% | 115,769 | Form 4 · filed 273 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Gold Kelly | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Stewart Murray | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | WYZGA MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | de Craecker Francoise | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bridger Gary | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-29 | Craig Adam R | director | Award / grant | 2,329,154 | 2,329,154 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-29 | Volpone John | officer | Award / grant | 2,329,154 | 2,329,154 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-29 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Award / grant | 1,552,769 | 1,552,769 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Volpone John | officer | Award / grant | 529,201 | 529,201 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Volpone John | officer | Award / grant | 289,881 | 289,881 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Award / grant | 193,254 | 193,254 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Craig Adam R | director | Award / grant | 529,201 | 529,201 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Award / grant | 352,800 | 352,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Craig Adam R | director | Award / grant | 289,881 | 289,881 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | Volpone John | officer | Award / grant | 1,609,873 | 1,609,873 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | KIRSKE DAVID | officer | Award / grant | 1,073,249 | 1,073,249 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | Craig Adam R | director | Award / grant | 1,609,873 | 1,609,873 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | MCGIRR DAVID W J | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 4,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | WYZGA MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 5,555 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Woods Keith | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Stewart Murray | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 7,883 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Bridger Gary | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 4,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | de Craecker Francoise | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 4,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Thoren Natasha Fay | officer | Award / grant | 3,333 | 9,462 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Arbet-Engels Christophe | officer | Award / grant | 850,000 | 864,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Ragan Paula | director | Award / grant | 2,250,000 | 3,337,386 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Baldry Mark | officer | Award / grant | 600,000 | 729,173 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | DiBiase Mary | officer | Award / grant | 650,000 | 1,140,980 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Mostafa Adam S. | officer | Award / grant | 850,000 | 850,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | DiBiase Mary | officer | Award / grant | 61,178 | 513,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Baldry Mark | officer | Award / grant | 74,773 | 123,282 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Ragan Paula | director | Award / grant | 169,940 | 1,163,859 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Arbet-Engels Christophe | officer | Award / grant | 25,831 | 25,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Mostafa Adam S. | officer | Award / grant | 74,773 | 74,773 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.