Issued 2026-09-25 at $36.94 · now $36.94 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, XENE has typically landed between $31.84 and $44.87 — a range of −13.8% to +21.5% from the issuance price $36.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,967 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-05 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($36.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XENE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $36.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.92 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.2–$39.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.84–$44.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,967 windows spanning 2014-11-05 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-03-23 | −62.4% | −62.4% | +0.0% |
| 2017-03-22 | −59.9% | −59.9% | +5.3% |
| 2017-03-09 | −54.2% | −54.2% | +17.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-01 | +118.5% | +0.0% | +118.5% |
| 2021-09-30 | +118.0% | +0.0% | +120.3% |
| 2021-09-29 | +109.6% | +0.0% | +126.5% |
2,967 overlapping windows · 2014-11-05 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of XEN1101 Versus Placebo in Focal-Onset Seizures (X-TOLE3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-Label Study of Azetukalner in Major Depressive Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate XEN1101 as Adjunctive Therapy in Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of Azetukalner Versus Placebo in Major Depressive Disorder (X-NOVA3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of Azetukalner Versus Placebo in Depressive Episodes Associated With Bipolar I or II Disorder (Bipolar Depression) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-label Study of Azetukalner in Bipolar I or II Depression (X-CEED-OLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2033 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-label Study of XEN1101 in Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
42%
+0.8%
n=12
Feb
75%
+7.6%
n=12
Mar
25%
−4.0%
n=12
Apr
50%
+1.8%
n=12
May
33%
−3.6%
n=12
Jun
50%
+3.8%
n=12
Jul
42%
+2.1%
n=12
Aug
67%
+6.6%
n=12
Sep
17%
−8.6%
n=12
Oct
45%
+5.5%
n=11
Nov
73%
+5.0%
n=11
Dec
67%
+9.0%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | KENNEY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | officer | Sale | 6,368 @ $60.17 | $383K | −90.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 702 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | KENNEY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | officer | Sale | 700 @ $60.98 | $43K | −99.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $64.06 | $641K | −84.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | PATOU GARY | director | Sale | 1,322 @ $53.14 | $70K | −5.0% of holding | +33.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,896 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Cannon Gillian | director | Sale | 1,190 @ $53.14 | $63K | −45.0% of holding | +33.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,455 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 7,308 @ $55.23 | $404K | −26.8% of holding | +2.3% | −9.8% | 19,923 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | KENNEY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | officer | Sale | 1,410 @ $55.23 | $78K | −16.6% of holding | +2.3% | −9.8% | 7,069 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | DiFabio Andrea | officer | Sale | 1,342 @ $55.23 | $74K | −15.5% of holding | +2.3% | −9.8% | 7,301 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 11,269 @ $60.11 | $677K | −43.3% of holding | −4.0% | −15.9% | 14,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | KENNEY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | officer | Sale | 2,771 @ $60.11 | $167K | −36.9% of holding | −4.0% | −15.9% | 4,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | DiFabio Andrea | officer | Sale | 2,607 @ $60.11 | $157K | −34.8% of holding | −4.0% | −15.9% | 4,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 65,000 @ $62.06 | $4.0M | −91.5% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 61,652 @ $60.08 | $3.7M | −91.1% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 43,348 @ $59.26 | $2.6M | −37.4% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 72,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 31,694 @ $59.88 | $1.9M | −53.5% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 27,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 21,515 @ $60.49 | $1.3M | −78.2% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 21,791 @ $58.81 | $1.3M | −26.9% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 59,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 12,479 @ $59.50 | $743K | −40.3% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 18,521 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 10,072 @ $60.47 | $609K | −54.4% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 8,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 2,449 @ $61.26 | $150K | −29.0% of holding | −8.3% | −18.6% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 37,938 @ $44.40 | $1.7M | −82.5% of holding | −6.3% | +32.4% | 8,062 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 2,062 @ $44.93 | $93K | −25.6% of holding | −6.3% | +32.4% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 8,820 @ $45.59 | $402K | −52.4% of holding | −8.6% | +8.6% | 8,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 2,010 @ $46.32 | $93K | −25.1% of holding | −8.6% | +8.6% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 14,375 @ $45.03 | $647K | −46.1% of holding | −7.3% | +9.2% | 16,830 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 97 @ $45.01 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | +5.2% | 31,205 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $40.16 | $1.0M | −44.4% of holding | +7.4% | +46.7% | 31,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-05 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 3 @ $30.48 | $91 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | +29.1% | 7,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 15,166 @ $40.46 | $614K | −32.6% of holding | −1.7% | −29.7% | 31,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-27 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 1,149 @ $41.07 | $47K | −3.5% of holding | −1.7% | −29.7% | 31,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-24 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 22,468 @ $40.20 | $903K | −41.8% of holding | −3.5% | −27.9% | 31,302 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | MORTIMER IAN | director | Sale | 16,217 @ $40.08 | $650K | −34.1% of holding | −2.0% | −29.3% | 31,302 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | AULIN SHERRY | officer | Sale | 11,510 @ $41.19 | $474K | −100.0% of holding | −4.2% | −22.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | AULIN SHERRY | officer | Sale | 7,199 @ $41.23 | $297K | −100.0% of holding | −4.2% | −22.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | PATOU GARY | director | Sale | 2,851 @ $41.11 | $117K | −10.8% of holding | −7.9% | −29.1% | 23,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-22 | PATOU GARY | director | Sale | 2,040 @ $41.05 | $84K | −8.0% of holding | −7.9% | −29.1% | 23,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-08 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Sale | 2,092 @ $45.69 | $96K | −100.0% of holding | −8.7% | −24.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | ROBIN SHERRINGTON | officer | Sale | 6,118 @ $46.30 | $283K | −42.1% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 8,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $46.30 | $232K | −55.6% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $46.25 | $231K | −35.7% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $46.20 | $92K | −50.0% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | ROBIN SHERRINGTON | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $46.15 | $47K | −6.6% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 14,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $46.45 | $46K | −6.7% of holding | −8.7% | −22.3% | 14,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Option exercise | 5,144 | 31,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Option exercise | 5,144 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | PATOU GARY | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | PATOU GARY | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gover Justin D. | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gover Justin D. | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Cannon Gillian | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Cannon Gillian | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 10,507 | 10,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 1,593 | 1,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Withheld for tax | 1,416 | 26,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Withheld for tax | 1,416 | 11,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Machado Patrick | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gover Justin D. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | PATOU GARY | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cannon Gillian | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | PATOU GARY | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 26,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cannon Gillian | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 13,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gover Justin D. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Machado Patrick | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 27,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Svoronos Dawn | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 27,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cannon Gillian | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 13,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gover Justin D. | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Machado Patrick | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 2,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | PATOU GARY | director | Option exercise | 2,645 | 26,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | GANNON STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 3,500 | 10,641 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.