Issued 2026-08-13 at $65.26 · now $64.23 (2026-08-13, −1.6% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, XENE has typically landed between $55.96 and $79.98 — a range of −14.3% to +22.6% from the issuance price $65.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,937 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-05 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($65.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where XENE has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $65.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $64.23 (-1.6%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.42 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.56–$70.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.96–$79.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-03-23 | −62.4% | −62.4% | +0.0% |
| 2017-03-22 | −59.9% | −59.9% | +5.3% |
| 2017-03-09 | −54.2% | −54.2% | +17.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-01 | +118.5% | +0.0% | +118.5% |
| 2021-09-30 | +118.0% | +0.0% | +120.3% |
| 2021-09-29 | +109.6% | +0.0% | +126.5% |
2,937 overlapping windows · 2014-11-05 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of XEN1101 Versus Placebo in Focal-Onset Seizures (X-TOLE3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-Label Study of Azetukalner in Major Depressive Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate XEN1101 as Adjunctive Therapy in Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of Azetukalner Versus Placebo in Major Depressive Disorder (X-NOVA3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Randomized Study of Azetukalner Versus Placebo in Depressive Episodes Associated With Bipolar I or II Disorder (Bipolar Depression) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-label Study of Azetukalner in Bipolar I or II Depression (X-CEED-OLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2033 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Open-label Study of XEN1101 in Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.