XELXcel Energy Inc.Utilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $72.71 · now $72.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XEL has typically landed between $66.88 and $79.18 — a range of −8.0% to +8.9% from the issuance price $72.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($72.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where XEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $72.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$66.88worst · -8.0%$79.18best · +8.9%
  • now $72.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $73.46 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.99–$75.93
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $66.88–$79.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−28.9%−28.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−27.9%−27.9%+0.2%
2020-02-24−22.7%−28.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+30.6%+0.0%+34.3%
2020-03-20+25.2%−1.2%+32.6%
2022-10-12+19.3%+0.0%+19.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$51.0B
market cap
$3.50
EPS (TTM)
23.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$14.7B
'20'25
Net income$2.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $72.71$63.98$190.52
  • DCF (intrinsic)$181.79
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$79.01
  • Analyst target · range $86.00–$101.00$91.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$72.71

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
79%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
74%
+2.2%
n=19
May
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
83%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$83$702026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $66K — Long Ryan J.2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Rome Amanda J2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Long Ryan J. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Rome Amanda J — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-04Long Ryan J.officerSale800 @ $82.91$66K−3.9% of holding+2.0%−20.0%19,761Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Rome Amanda JofficerSale15,969 @ $83.61$1.3M−25.0% of holding+0.5%−20.7%47,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Stockfish Devin WdirectorPurchase2,170 @ $68.93$150K+259.3% of holding+1.6%−11.1%3,007Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

159 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Carter Peter WdirectorAward / grant1,8191,819Form 4
2026-06-28Casey LynndirectorAward / grant49343,616Form 4
2026-06-28Burkhart Megan DdirectorAward / grant58423,841Form 4
2026-06-28Pardee Charles GdirectorAward / grant54133,852Form 4
2026-06-28KAMPLING PATRICIA LdirectorAward / grant60825,158Form 4
2026-06-28Welsh Timothy AdirectorAward / grant46817,487Form 4
2026-05-21Hutchinson Maria DemareedirectorAward / grant2,2543,234Form 4
2026-05-21Pardee Charles GdirectorAward / grant2,25433,311Form 4
2026-05-21Burkhart Megan DdirectorAward / grant2,25423,257Form 4
2026-05-21Welsh Timothy AdirectorAward / grant2,25417,018Form 4
2026-05-21Johnson Netha N.directorAward / grant2,25419,340Form 4
2026-05-21Stockfish Devin WdirectorAward / grant2,2547,798Form 4
2026-05-21KAMPLING PATRICIA LdirectorAward / grant2,25424,551Form 4
2026-05-21Kehl George JdirectorAward / grant2,25419,425Form 4
2026-05-21Casey LynndirectorAward / grant2,25443,123Form 4
2026-03-28Welsh Timothy AdirectorAward / grant48014,660Form 4
2026-03-28Burkhart Megan DdirectorAward / grant61520,854Form 4
2026-03-28Casey LynndirectorAward / grant51940,576Form 4
2026-03-28KAMPLING PATRICIA LdirectorAward / grant61522,225Form 4
2026-03-28Pardee Charles GdirectorAward / grant58130,941Form 4
2026-03-20Rome Amanda JofficerCode W655,819Form 4
2026-03-02Long Ryan J.officerAward / grant5,37020,561Form 4
2026-03-02Frenzel RobertdirectorAward / grant42,065512,597Form 4
2026-03-02Correa PatriciaofficerAward / grant4,20725,081Form 4
2026-03-02Lamb Michael G.officerAward / grant4,65516,654Form 4
2026-03-02Sharp ScottofficerAward / grant4,11830,274Form 4
2026-03-02Ostrom MelissaofficerAward / grant1,45012,330Form 4
2026-03-02Van Abel Brian JofficerAward / grant9,129110,697Form 4
2026-03-02Rome Amanda JofficerAward / grant7,87655,813Form 4
2026-02-24Frenzel RobertdirectorWithheld for tax57,196470,532Form 4
2026-02-24Van Abel Brian JofficerWithheld for tax15,245101,568Form 4
2026-02-24Rome Amanda JofficerWithheld for tax10,78763,906Form 4
2026-02-24Correa PatriciaofficerWithheld for tax4,92120,874Form 4
2026-02-24Lamb Michael G.officerWithheld for tax1,97811,999Form 4
2026-02-24Long Ryan J.officerWithheld for tax1,72515,191Form 4
2026-02-24Sharp ScottofficerWithheld for tax1,62026,156Form 4
2026-02-24Ostrom MelissaofficerWithheld for tax1,54610,880Form 4
2026-02-24Rome Amanda JofficerAward / grant20,70068,637Form 4
2026-02-24Lamb Michael G.officerAward / grant3,61511,089Form 4
2026-02-24Lamb Michael G.officerOption exercise2,8880Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-07-082024-06-20$50–100K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-11-292022-10-25$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-11-292022-10-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.