Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.44 · now $15.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WW has typically landed between $9.06 and $23.44 — a range of −41.3% to +51.8% from the issuance price $15.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.23 (-7.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.94–$16.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.06–$23.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-19 | −77.6% | −77.6% | +2.9% |
| 2025-03-20 | −77.3% | −78.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | −75.8% | −75.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-10-15 | +247.8% | −1.6% | +250.6% |
| 2015-10-16 | +246.2% | +0.0% | +256.3% |
| 2015-10-14 | +245.1% | −3.1% | +245.1% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Purchase | 7,235 @ $13.84 | $100K | +58.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Purchase | 8,971 @ $14.78 | $133K | +70.8% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,648 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Purchase | 1,029 @ $14.36 | $15K | +8.8% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,677 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Purchase | 1,648 @ $13.48 | $22K | +16.5% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $12.63 | $126K | ownership Δ n/a | +38.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | DellaFortuna Felicia | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $12.68 | $19K | ownership Δ n/a | +38.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Volkmann Jonathan | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $10.08 | $15K | +88.4% of holding | +82.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,196 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Hawks Carney | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $10.01 | $200K | +63.6% of holding | +84.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $9.55 | $96K | +419.3% of holding | +84.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hawks Carney | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $22.75 | $455K | ownership Δ n/a | +27.9% | −52.4% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hawks Carney | director | Purchase | 9,057 @ $20.81 | $188K | +45.3% of holding | +27.9% | −52.4% | 29,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Haag Nicole | officer | Sale | 469 @ $30.86 | $14K | −100.0% of holding | −3.2% | −37.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thiltgen Heather | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Gavales Lisa A | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | GOVE SUE | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Hawks Carney | director | Award / grant | 8,132 | 8,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Award / grant | 1,997 | 1,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Award / grant | 1,997 | 1,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | GOVE SUE | director | Award / grant | 813 | 813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gavales Lisa A | director | Award / grant | 813 | 813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hawks Carney | director | Award / grant | 1,997 | 1,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thiltgen Heather | director | Award / grant | 653 | 653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Cotter Debra | officer | Award / grant | 1,200 | 1,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Cotter Debra | officer | Award / grant | 2,666 | 2,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hawks Carney | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 31,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 2,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 2,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mason Michael B | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 2,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | O'Connor-Brooks Fallon Julia | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 2,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bornstein Julie | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 2,918 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bornstein Julie | director | Award / grant | 1,219 | 1,752 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | DAVIS EUGENE I | director | Award / grant | 1,219 | 1,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Sjoqvist Nikolaj H | director | Award / grant | 1,219 | 1,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Mason Michael B | director | Award / grant | 1,219 | 1,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Hawks Carney | director | Award / grant | 1,219 | 30,276 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | O'Connor-Brooks Fallon Julia | director | Award / grant | 1,126 | 1,126 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Causse Helene | officer | Award / grant | 5,400 | 5,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Cooke Jacqueline | officer | Award / grant | 17,333 | 17,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Comonte Tara | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Comonte Tara | director | Award / grant | 54,000 | 54,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Cooke Jacqueline | officer | Award / grant | 7,800 | 7,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Haag Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 2,475 | 2,475 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | DellaFortuna Felicia | officer | Award / grant | 18,000 | 18,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | DellaFortuna Felicia | officer | Award / grant | 8,100 | 8,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | George Nina Ann | officer | Award / grant | 10,666 | 10,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | George Nina Ann | officer | Award / grant | 4,800 | 4,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Causse Helene | officer | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Amsel Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 216,720 | 307,389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Cooke Jacqueline | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,627 | 27,607 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Haag Nicole | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,978 | 43,880 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | purchase | 2021-09-01 | 2021-08-11 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2020-12-23 | 2020-12-15 | $100–250K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | sale | 2020-12-02 | 2020-11-20 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | sale | 2020-12-02 | 2020-11-12 | $100–250K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | purchase | 2020-08-13 | 2019-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2020-03-09 | 2020-03-02 | $15–50K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2019-06-12 | 2019-05-14 | $15–50K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2019-06-12 | 2019-05-13 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.