Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.51 · now $4.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WVE has typically landed between $3.14 and $6.88 — a range of −30.4% to +52.5% from the issuance price $4.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,703 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WVE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.34 (-3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.75–$4.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.14–$6.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,703 windows spanning 2015-11-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-12-13 | −78.8% | −79.8% | +0.0% |
| 2019-12-12 | −78.4% | −79.1% | +3.4% |
| 2019-12-11 | −78.1% | −78.7% | +5.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-09-18 | +179.9% | −2.4% | +179.9% |
| 2024-09-23 | +174.7% | +0.0% | +186.7% |
| 2025-11-06 | +170.4% | −15.4% | +170.4% |
2,703 overlapping windows · 2015-11-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
27%
−8.1%
n=11
Feb
73%
+6.8%
n=11
Mar
27%
−12.1%
n=11
Apr
18%
−7.5%
n=11
May
45%
−0.5%
n=11
Jun
45%
+11.4%
n=11
Jul
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Aug
73%
+14.1%
n=11
Sep
36%
+1.4%
n=11
Oct
50%
+11.5%
n=10
Nov
60%
+10.0%
n=10
Dec
18%
+0.8%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Rawcliffe Adrian | director | Sale | 12,700 @ $5.29 | $67K | −100.0% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Wagner Heidi L | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $6.01 | $42K | −13.5% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | TAKANASHI KEN | director | Sale | 3,864 @ $6.01 | $23K | −16.1% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 432 @ $6.01 | $3K | −1.7% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 971,091 @ $6.50 | $6.3M | +3.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,975,505 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 2,495,623 @ $6.43 | $16.0M | +10.6% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,004,414 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 4,954,558 @ $6.06 | $30.0M | +27.2% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,157,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 351,224 @ $6.38 | $2.2M | +1.5% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,508,791 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 17,900 @ $15.09 | $270K | −22.4% of holding | −50.8% | −78.9% | 61,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 15,294 @ $15.00 | $229K | −19.8% of holding | −50.8% | −78.9% | 61,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | BOLNO PAUL | director | Sale | 10,480 @ $13.45 | $141K | −3.7% of holding | +5.5% | −74.7% | 275,520 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 3,588 @ $13.45 | $48K | −2.6% of holding | +5.5% | −74.7% | 134,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Vargeese Chandra | officer | Sale | 3,228 @ $13.45 | $43K | −0.8% of holding | +5.5% | −74.7% | 408,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 1,883 @ $13.45 | $25K | −3.0% of holding | +5.5% | −74.7% | 61,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 8,080 @ $15.92 | $129K | −23.5% of holding | −15.0% | −70.0% | 26,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 1,295 @ $16.70 | $22K | −4.9% of holding | −15.0% | −70.0% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | GSK plc | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,470,000 @ $19.00 | $27.9M | +8.8% of holding | −16.1% | −74.3% | 18,245,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $20.02 | $1.0M | −35.6% of holding | −37.0% | −81.4% | 90,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 36 @ $20.25 | $729 | −0.0% of holding | −37.0% | −81.4% | 89,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 122,349 @ $14.20 | $1.7M | −83.0% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 107,400 @ $14.56 | $1.6M | −81.1% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $18.00 | $900K | −35.9% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 89,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $16.00 | $800K | −66.7% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $13.20 | $792K | −40.2% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 89,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.00 | $750K | −26.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 139,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 45,882 @ $14.50 | $665K | −64.7% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.20 | $660K | −35.9% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 89,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Rawcliffe Adrian | director | Sale | 42,000 @ $15.00 | $630K | −76.8% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $18.02 | $541K | −70.3% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 42,000 @ $12.75 | $536K | −76.8% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 37,500 @ $14.08 | $528K | −60.0% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 28,125 @ $14.50 | $408K | −52.9% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $15.00 | $375K | −49.6% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 22,500 @ $14.08 | $317K | −47.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 17,900 @ $15.00 | $269K | −41.7% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 21,000 @ $12.75 | $268K | −45.3% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 17,230 @ $15.00 | $258K | −40.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $12.75 | $255K | −28.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 50,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $14.07 | $211K | −54.2% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $12.75 | $191K | −26.0% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 42,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Verdine Gregory L. | director | Sale | 12,020 @ $13.09 | $157K | −4.1% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 283,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Sale | 9,375 @ $15.00 | $141K | −27.3% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | CORRIGAN MARK | director | Sale | 9,600 @ $13.09 | $126K | −21.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 35,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 7,494 @ $15.00 | $112K | −22.8% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 25,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Verdine Gregory L. | director | Sale | 7,980 @ $14.05 | $112K | −2.8% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 275,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Wagner Heidi L | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $14.00 | $98K | −13.5% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 44,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 7,494 @ $12.75 | $96K | −18.6% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 32,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | CORRIGAN MARK | director | Sale | 6,515 @ $14.06 | $92K | −18.4% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 28,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Wagner Heidi L | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $13.00 | $91K | −13.5% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 44,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 6,445 @ $12.75 | $82K | −33.7% of holding | +97.1% | −30.8% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Rawcliffe Adrian | director | Sale | 16,115 @ $6.79 | $109K | −55.9% of holding | +145.0% | −17.7% | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.69 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | +145.0% | −17.7% | 18,203,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | BOLNO PAUL | director | Sale | 217,351 @ $10.10 | $2.2M | −64.2% of holding | −35.8% | +35.2% | 121,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Verdine Gregory L. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $10.00 | $100K | −3.4% of holding | −35.8% | +35.2% | 285,217 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 21,000 @ $9.25 | $194K | −34.2% of holding | −32.7% | +26.8% | 40,388 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 9,670 @ $8.81 | $85K | −24.6% of holding | −22.4% | +38.4% | 29,645 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-05 | TAKANASHI KEN | director | Sale | 4,872 @ $8.75 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | −10.8% | +35.7% | 5,716,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Tan Aik Na | director | Sale | 1,127 @ $8.75 | $10K | −7.0% of holding | −10.8% | +35.7% | 14,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Verdine Gregory L. | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $6.95 | $209K | −9.6% of holding | +7.7% | +117.1% | 282,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-20 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Sale | 10,500 @ $9.77 | $103K | −39.5% of holding | −27.9% | −47.1% | 16,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Wagner Heidi L | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 51,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wagner Heidi L | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | TAKANASHI KEN | director | Conversion | 3,901,348 | 9,606,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | TAKANASHI KEN | director | Conversion | 3,901,348 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,294 | 77,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 17,900 | 79,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,294 | 61,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 17,900 | 143,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | BOLNO PAUL | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Moran Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 273,750 | 273,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vargeese Chandra | officer | Award / grant | 45,625 | 411,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vargeese Chandra | officer | Award / grant | 273,750 | 273,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Francis Chris | officer | Award / grant | 38,750 | 63,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Francis Chris | officer | Award / grant | 232,500 | 232,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | BOLNO PAUL | director | Award / grant | 165,000 | 286,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Moran Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 45,625 | 137,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 9,375 | 34,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 9,375 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 139,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 36,000 | 125,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 36,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Moran Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 122,349 | 147,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 107,400 | 132,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 189,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Option exercise | 42,000 | 54,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Rawcliffe Adrian | director | Option exercise | 42,000 | 54,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 139,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 45,882 | 70,882 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Option exercise | 45,000 | 70,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Option exercise | 32,230 | 57,630 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Moran Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 149,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | HENRY CHRISTIAN O | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 42,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 46,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 62,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 28,125 | 53,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Tan Aik Na | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 46,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 17,900 | 42,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Francis Chris | officer | Option exercise | 22,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.