Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.39 · now $15.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WULF has typically landed between $9.11 and $25.63 — a range of −40.8% to +66.6% from the issuance price $15.39.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WULF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.39 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.54 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.33–$18.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.11–$25.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −66.4% | −66.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-19 | −65.6% | −65.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-22 | −64.9% | −65.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-12 | +193.2% | +0.0% | +193.2% |
| 2023-03-16 | +166.7% | +0.0% | +181.5% |
| 2023-06-15 | +162.1% | +0.0% | +193.2% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
+6.0%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Apr
45%
+2.5%
n=20
May
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
50%
+9.7%
n=20
Jul
55%
+5.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
+2.2%
n=20
Sep
65%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Nov
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Dec
40%
+3.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 6,085 @ $14.79 | $90K | +1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 350,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Motz Catherine J. | director | Sale | 56,023 @ $17.81 | $998K | −26.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 153,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Carter Walter E. | director | Sale | 130,626 @ $15.14 | $2.0M | −36.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 229,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 137,500 @ $17.06 | $2.3M | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,807,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 2,860 @ $17.47 | $50K | +0.8% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 344,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 3,023 @ $16.54 | $50K | +0.9% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,844 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 137,500 @ $26.60 | $3.7M | −3.4% of holding | −39.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,945,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 109,849 @ $25.58 | $2.8M | −2.6% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,139,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 56,801 @ $26.57 | $1.5M | −1.4% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,082,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 166,650 @ $24.43 | $4.1M | −3.8% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,249,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 79,100 @ $20.62 | $1.6M | −8.2% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 884,420 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 100 @ $21.29 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 884,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 80,591 @ $20.51 | $1.7M | −7.3% of holding | +19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,020,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 56,909 @ $21.20 | $1.2M | −5.6% of holding | +19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Sale | 452,152 | — | −38.0% of holding | +20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 738,626 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-24 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Sale | 452,152 | — | −38.0% of holding | +20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 738,626 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 133,700 @ $16.94 | $2.3M | −37.7% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 3,800 @ $17.62 | $67K | −1.7% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Prager Paul B. | director | Sale | 137,500 @ $16.10 | $2.2M | −28.0% of holding | +17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 354,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 1,665 @ $15.04 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,052 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 1,670 @ $14.96 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | +22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 1,581 @ $15.79 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | +27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Fleury Patrick | director | Sale | 573,586 @ $16.14 | $9.3M | −15.2% of holding | +15.5% | −17.1% | 3,205,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Fleury Patrick | director | Sale | 26,414 @ $16.14 | $426K | −100.0% of holding | +15.5% | −17.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 1,584 @ $16.00 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | +15.5% | −17.1% | 275,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 1,338 @ $14.91 | $20K | +0.5% of holding | +23.2% | −6.6% | 273,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 752 @ $13.31 | $10K | +0.3% of holding | +30.4% | +15.4% | 272,214 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 679 @ $14.80 | $10K | +0.3% of holding | +22.2% | +4.9% | 271,462 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 654 @ $15.31 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | +5.1% | −7.5% | 270,783 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 3,171 @ $15.78 | $50K | +1.2% of holding | +0.8% | −15.9% | 270,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Purchase | 4,178 @ $12.01 | $50K | +1.6% of holding | +5.6% | +70.5% | 266,958 | Form 4 · filed 28 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Motz Catherine J. | director | Sale | 52,942 @ $11.04 | $584K | −24.9% of holding | +25.0% | +48.1% | 159,918 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Fabiano Amanda | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $8.64 | $40K | −10.1% of holding | +19.4% | +73.6% | 40,769 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
267 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Khan Nazar M. | director | Other acquisition | 350,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 55,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 55,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 55,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 55,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Disposition | 276,500 | 4,380,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Disposition | 276,500 | 4,380,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fleury Patrick | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fleury Patrick | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fleury Patrick | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fleury Patrick | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 4,656,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Langlais Kerri M. | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 4,656,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Carter Walter E. | director | Award / grant | 1,266 | 359,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Prager Lisa A. | director | Award / grant | 1,013 | 311,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Award / grant | 1,013 | 338,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Carter Walter E. | director | Award / grant | 1,266 | 359,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Prager Lisa A. | director | Award / grant | 1,013 | 311,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bucella Michael C. | director | Award / grant | 1,013 | 338,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 48,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 48,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Tanimoto William Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Prager Lisa A. | director | Option exercise | 56,023 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Prager Lisa A. | director | Award / grant | 6,950 | 6,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Carter Walter E. | director | Award / grant | 6,950 | 6,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Carter Walter E. | director | Option exercise | 56,023 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.