WUThe Western Union Companyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.54 · now $6.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WU has typically landed between $5.69 and $7.26 — a range of −13.0% to +11.0% from the issuance price $6.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.69worst · -13.0%$7.26best · +11.0%
  • now $6.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.5 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.19–$6.81
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.69–$7.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−42.7%−42.7%+0.0%
2008-09-24−41.9%−42.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+41.9%+0.0%+45.6%
2009-03-25+41.3%−2.9%+41.3%
2009-03-24+34.9%−4.1%+34.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.6%
n=19
May
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
37%
−2.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
39%
−4.5%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$72026-05-01: 3 insider sales, $184K — Adams Benjamin Carlton …2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $57K — Angelini Giovanni2025-11-10: 1 insider purchase, $90K — Angelini Giovanni2025-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $1.5M — McGranahan Devin2025-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $146K — Cagwin Matthew2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $1.6M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $90K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $57K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $184K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Adams Benjamin Carlton — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Adams Benjamin Carlton — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Adams Benjamin Carlton — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Angelini Giovanni — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Angelini Giovanni — Purchase on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McGranahan Devin — Purchase on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cagwin Matthew — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorSale12,592 @ $9.23$116K−5.1% of holding−18.9%not yet — horizon still open234,689Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorSale4,148 @ $9.21$38K−1.6% of holding−18.9%not yet — horizon still open247,281Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorSale3,184 @ $9.22$29K−1.3% of holding−18.9%not yet — horizon still open251,429Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-28Angelini GiovanniofficerSale6,000 @ $9.47$57K−1.9% of holding−15.4%not yet — horizon still open311,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Angelini GiovanniofficerPurchase10,000 @ $8.95$90K+5.7% of holding+5.7%−9.6%186,932Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21McGranahan DevindirectorPurchase176,470 @ $8.49$1.5M+24.0% of holding−7.2%+6.3%913,125Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18Cagwin MatthewofficerPurchase17,500 @ $8.36$146K+8.4% of holding−1.0%+13.0%225,611Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Hawksworth Benjamin ScottofficerWithheld for tax8,569313,891Form 4
2026-06-05Angelini GiovanniofficerAward / grant33,423378,138Form 4
2026-06-05Angelini GiovanniofficerAward / grant33,423344,715Form 4
2026-03-13Pant MilinddirectorAward / grant16,90516,905Form 4
2026-03-07Hawksworth Benjamin ScottofficerWithheld for tax3,145322,460Form 4
2026-03-02Cole Martin IdirectorAward / grant20,921120,018Form 4
2026-03-02HOLDEN BETSY DdirectorAward / grant20,921144,466Form 4
2026-03-02Miles MichaeldirectorAward / grant20,921197,243Form 4
2026-03-02Miles MichaeldirectorAward / grant12,553209,796Form 4
2026-03-02Murphy Timothy P.directorAward / grant20,92195,923Form 4
2026-03-02TRUJILLO SOLOMON DdirectorAward / grant12,030109,516Form 4
2026-03-02Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorAward / grant66,528210,261Form 4
2026-03-02Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorAward / grant44,352254,613Form 4
2026-03-02TRUJILLO SOLOMON DdirectorAward / grant32,95097,486Form 4
2026-03-02JOERRES JEFFREY AdirectorAward / grant37,657241,543Form 4
2026-03-02JOERRES JEFFREY AdirectorAward / grant13,076254,619Form 4
2026-03-02Axelrod CherieofficerAward / grant43,934153,773Form 4
2026-03-02Axelrod CherieofficerAward / grant29,289183,062Form 4
2026-03-02Siegmund JandirectorAward / grant20,92185,994Form 4
2026-03-02Deering SuzettedirectorAward / grant20,92158,802Form 4
2026-03-02Sun AngeladirectorAward / grant20,92186,912Form 4
2026-03-02CAMERON-DOE JULIEdirectorAward / grant20,92121,659Form 4
2026-03-02Angelini GiovanniofficerAward / grant52,302264,991Form 4
2026-03-02Angelini GiovanniofficerAward / grant31,381296,372Form 4
2026-03-02Angelini GiovanniofficerAward / grant153,847153,847Form 4
2026-03-02McGranahan DevindirectorAward / grant596,2351,662,964Form 4
2026-03-02McGranahan DevindirectorAward / grant198,7451,861,709Form 4
2026-03-02McGranahan DevindirectorAward / grant1,461,5391,461,539Form 4
2026-03-02Hawksworth Benjamin ScottofficerAward / grant87,867214,727Form 4
2026-03-02Hawksworth Benjamin ScottofficerAward / grant58,578273,305Form 4
2026-03-02Cooper Barry D.officerAward / grant9,18337,985Form 4
2026-03-02Cooper Barry D.officerAward / grant9,18347,168Form 4
2026-03-02Cagwin MatthewofficerAward / grant122,908370,519Form 4
2026-03-02Cagwin MatthewofficerAward / grant73,745444,264Form 4
2026-03-02Cagwin MatthewofficerAward / grant361,539361,539Form 4
2026-02-26McGranahan DevindirectorWithheld for tax22,0551,066,729Form 4
2026-02-26Cagwin MatthewofficerWithheld for tax8,118247,611Form 4
2026-02-26Hawksworth Benjamin ScottofficerWithheld for tax4,224126,860Form 4
2026-02-26Adams Benjamin CarltondirectorWithheld for tax4,214143,733Form 4
2026-02-26Axelrod CherieofficerWithheld for tax1,618109,839Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Kathy ManningHousesale2024-07-062024-06-13$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-05-152024-04-04$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2023-11-162023-10-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-05$1–15K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousesale2021-03-162021-02-16$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2019-05-212019-05-09$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2019-03-272019-02-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-09-122018-08-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-06-082018-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-03-092018-02-27$1–15K
Steve CohenHousesale2018-01-102017-12-28$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2018-01-042017-12-15$15–50K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2014-12-262014-12-09$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.