Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.89 · now $3.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WTI has typically landed between $2.99 and $5.42 — a range of −23.2% to +39.4% from the issuance price $3.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.84 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.41–$4.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.99–$5.42
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −68.0% | −69.5% | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-14 | −66.5% | −69.9% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-11-18 | +102.8% | +0.0% | +102.8% |
| 2016-11-17 | +97.9% | −2.1% | +97.9% |
| 2016-02-08 | +88.5% | −7.0% | +102.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Conwill Daniel O. IV | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.41 | $205K | −23.9% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,076 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | CHANG NANCY T | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.31 | $199K | −27.8% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Boulet Virginia | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.54 | $212K | −11.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 487,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.56 | $107K | −15.3% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Williford William J | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.56 | $107K | −7.4% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.55 | $107K | −18.8% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Hittner George | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.53 | $106K | −14.1% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $3.54 | $21K | −12.7% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $1.84 | $459K | +30.9% of holding | +11.7% | +87.3% | 1,060,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Purchase | 36,842 @ $1.84 | $68K | +4.8% of holding | +7.4% | +69.2% | 810,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
187 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Withheld for tax | 52,304 | 1,425,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,066 | 199,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,066 | 409,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,271 | 134,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,922 | 45,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Option exercise | 8,312 | 8,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 132,918 | 132,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 56,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 56,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Option exercise | 7,425 | 7,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 132,918 | 1,477,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 132,918 | 1,477,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Option exercise | 7,425 | 48,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 132,918 | 1,477,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 221,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 431,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 221,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Option exercise | 7,425 | 48,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Option exercise | 8,312 | 137,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 431,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 132,918 | 1,477,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 221,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Option exercise | 7,425 | 48,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Option exercise | 8,312 | 137,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Option exercise | 8,312 | 137,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 221,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Option exercise | 8,312 | 137,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 431,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 56,075 | 431,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Option exercise | 7,425 | 48,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,927 | 195,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 22,685 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 22,685 | 204,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Parasnis Sameer | officer | Option exercise | 22,685 | 204,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Withheld for tax | 41,974 | 1,344,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Williford William J | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,708 | 405,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gamblin Huan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,625 | 159,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hartman Bart P. III | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,345 | 47,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Williford William J | officer | Option exercise | 45,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | KROHN TRACY W | director | Option exercise | 106,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.