WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $148.24 · now $148.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WTFC has typically landed between $130.89 and $168.95 — a range of −11.7% to +14.0% from the issuance price $148.24.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($148.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WTFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $148.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$130.89worst · -11.7%$168.95best · +14.0%
  • now $148.24 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $150.15 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $142.1–$158.2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $130.89–$168.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−62.2%−62.2%+1.2%
2020-02-21−53.6%−61.9%+0.0%
2020-02-14−53.4%−53.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-10+81.2%−2.2%+81.2%
2009-07-02+81.0%−0.6%+81.0%
2009-07-23+76.1%+0.0%+76.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
−2.2%
n=20
Apr
55%
+3.1%
n=20
May
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.9%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$166$1192026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — DYKSTRA DAVID A2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $74K — MCKINNEY SUZET M2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — DYKSTRA DAVID A2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $454K — STOEHR DAVID L2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $77K — Hahnfeld Jeffrey D2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $585K — MURPHY RICHARD B2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $798K — Boege Kathleen M2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $82K — Lee David Eric2026-01-29: 4 insider sales, $1.6M — MURPHY RICHARD B, Boege Kathleen M, STOEHR DAVID L …2026-01-27: 1 insider sale, $46K — Hahnfeld Jeffrey D2026-01: 6 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $798K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $663K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $74K↑ buys↓ salesofficer DYKSTRA DAVID A — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same daydirector MCKINNEY SUZET M — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DYKSTRA DAVID A — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer STOEHR DAVID L — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hahnfeld Jeffrey D — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MURPHY RICHARD B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Boege Kathleen M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 19 days after the tradeofficer Lee David Eric — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MURPHY RICHARD B — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Boege Kathleen M — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer STOEHR DAVID L — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed same dayofficer Boege Kathleen M — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hahnfeld Jeffrey D — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerSale13,515 @ $162.77$2.2M−7.5% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open166,449Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04MCKINNEY SUZET MdirectorSale500 @ $148.96$74K−13.1% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open3,303Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerSale9,579 @ $148.82$1.4M−5.1% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open179,810Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23STOEHR DAVID LofficerSale3,020 @ $150.45$454K−18.6% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open13,213Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Hahnfeld Jeffrey DofficerSale530 @ $145.65$77K−30.7% of holding+0.1%−6.8%1,195Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02MURPHY RICHARD BofficerSale3,979 @ $147.12$585K−9.3% of holding−0.3%−9.1%38,904Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Boege Kathleen MofficerSale5,000 @ $159.61$798K−21.9% of holding−10.2%−10.7%17,883Form 4 · filed 19 days after the trade
2026-01-30Lee David EricofficerSale558 @ $147.42$82K−3.4% of holding+0.5%+0.4%16,085Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29MURPHY RICHARD BofficerSale3,291 @ $146.05$481K−6.7% of holding+0.6%+0.5%46,049Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-29Boege Kathleen MofficerSale2,934 @ $146.39$430K−10.5% of holding+0.6%+0.5%24,949Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-29STOEHR DAVID LofficerSale2,499 @ $146.16$365K−11.8% of holding+0.6%+0.5%18,638Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-29Boege Kathleen MofficerSale2,066 @ $146.37$302K−8.3% of holding+0.6%+0.5%22,883Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-27Hahnfeld Jeffrey DofficerSale314 @ $145.43$46K−13.9% of holding+5.9%+4.8%1,947Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-31MURPHY RICHARD BofficerSale3,746 @ $127.98$479K−100.0% of holding+5.6%+6.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-29DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerSale14,942 @ $131.53$2.0M−7.6% of holding+3.3%+1.2%182,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorPurchase3,919 @ $26.35$103Kownership Δ n/a+1.0%+2.4%3,919Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-25WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorPurchase2,382 @ $26.35$63Kownership Δ n/a+1.0%+2.4%2,382Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-27DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerSale9,480 @ $123.64$1.2M−4.6% of holding−4.0%+1.9%196,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27MURPHY RICHARD BofficerSale7,166 @ $123.62$886K−14.7% of holding−4.0%+1.9%41,648Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27STOEHR DAVID LofficerSale5,316 @ $123.61$657K−26.8% of holding−4.0%+1.9%14,542Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Lee David EricofficerSale1,548 @ $124.10$192K−9.8% of holding−4.0%+1.9%14,178Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Hahnfeld Jeffrey DofficerSale936 @ $124.16$116K−41.1% of holding−4.0%+1.9%1,340Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorPurchase1,095 @ $25.17$28K+36.0% of holding−7.9%−9.4%4,138Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorPurchase417 @ $25.18$11K+15.9% of holding−7.9%−9.4%3,043Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorPurchase417 @ $25.16$10K+19.9% of holding−7.9%−9.4%2,516Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerSale4,213 @ $131.31$553K−2.0% of holding−3.5%−6.0%206,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-28MURPHY RICHARD BofficerSale3,186 @ $131.30$418K−6.1% of holding−3.5%−6.0%48,814Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-28STOEHR DAVID LofficerSale2,363 @ $131.32$310K−10.6% of holding−3.5%−6.0%19,858Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-28Boege Kathleen MofficerSale2,032 @ $131.31$267K−7.8% of holding−3.5%−6.0%24,137Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-28Hahnfeld Jeffrey DofficerSale416 @ $130.95$54K−15.5% of holding−3.5%−6.0%2,276Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant218169,180Form 4
2026-08-20DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerAward / grant153166,602Form 4
2026-08-17ZIDAR THOMAS PofficerGift1,00050,773Form 4
2026-06-30CRIST PETER DdirectorAward / grant71075,637Form 4
2026-06-30WASHINGTON ALEX E IIIdirectorAward / grant53420,956Form 4
2026-06-30LEFEVRE DEBORAH L. HALLdirectorAward / grant50516,783Form 4
2026-06-30KENNEY BRIAN AdirectorAward / grant48812,948Form 4
2026-06-30TEGLIA KARIN GUSTAFSONdirectorAward / grant48519,464Form 4
2026-06-30CONNELLY ELIZABETH H.directorAward / grant4748,950Form 4
2026-06-30Smith Gregory AdirectorAward / grant4473,976Form 4
2026-06-30RICHTER DAVID SdirectorAward / grant4241,647Form 4
2026-06-30GLABE MARLA FdirectorAward / grant41623,776Form 4
2026-06-30MCKINNEY SUZET MdirectorAward / grant4083,711Form 4
2026-06-30Kohl Laura A.directorAward / grant3991,134Form 4
2026-05-28WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant220168,962Form 4
2026-05-28DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerAward / grant154179,964Form 4
2026-05-05MURPHY RICHARD BofficerGift1,66137,243Form 4
2026-03-31CRIST PETER DdirectorAward / grant70374,927Form 4
2026-03-31WASHINGTON ALEX E IIIdirectorAward / grant52420,422Form 4
2026-03-31LEFEVRE DEBORAH L. HALLdirectorAward / grant50016,278Form 4
2026-03-31TEGLIA KARIN GUSTAFSONdirectorAward / grant47918,979Form 4
2026-03-31CONNELLY ELIZABETH H.directorAward / grant4708,476Form 4
2026-03-31DOYLE WILLIAM JdirectorAward / grant46618,944Form 4
2026-03-31KENNEY BRIAN AdirectorAward / grant43812,460Form 4
2026-03-31Smith Gregory AdirectorAward / grant4383,529Form 4
2026-03-31GLABE MARLA FdirectorAward / grant41223,360Form 4
2026-03-31RICHTER DAVID SdirectorAward / grant4051,223Form 4
2026-03-31MCKINNEY SUZET MdirectorAward / grant4043,803Form 4
2026-03-31Kohl Laura A.directorAward / grant395735Form 4
2026-03-31HACKETT H PATRICK JRdirectorAward / grant1247,354Form 4
2026-03-27WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorWithheld for tax5,929168,742Form 4
2026-02-25CRANE TIMOTHYdirectorWithheld for tax8,50695,706Form 4
2026-02-25DYKSTRA DAVID AofficerWithheld for tax4,172189,389Form 4
2026-02-25MURPHY RICHARD BofficerWithheld for tax3,16642,883Form 4
2026-02-25STOEHR DAVID LofficerWithheld for tax2,40516,233Form 4
2026-02-25Boege Kathleen MofficerWithheld for tax1,91614,967Form 4
2026-02-25ZIDAR THOMAS PofficerWithheld for tax1,63251,773Form 4
2026-02-25Lee David EricofficerWithheld for tax35615,729Form 4
2026-02-25Hahnfeld Jeffrey DofficerWithheld for tax2221,725Form 4
2026-02-20WEHMER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant263174,671Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.