WTBA · TickerCove

WTBAWest Bancorporation, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.46 · now $29.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WTBA has typically landed between $26.11 and $33.79 — a range of −11.4% to +14.7% from the issuance price $29.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$29.46 · 95% of range

$18.37 low$30 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 12.3%

−11.4%worst (p90)+14.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where WTBA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $29.46 (+0.0%)
typical $29.39 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $27.58–$31.21
90% range $26.11–$33.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-03	−52.4%	−52.4%	+0.0%
2009-02-05	−43.9%	−51.6%	+1.8%
2009-02-02	−41.7%	−47.7%	+1.2%
3 best
2009-03-05	+93.1%	+0.0%	+93.1%
2008-07-07	+88.6%	+0.0%	+88.6%
2008-07-02	+75.8%	−6.6%	+75.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−3.6%

n=20

Feb

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Mar

65%

+1.5%

n=20

Apr

45%

+1.1%

n=20

May

55%

−0.9%

n=20

Jun

65%

+0.2%

n=20

Jul

55%

+5.4%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.0%

n=20

Oct

70%

+3.0%

n=20

Nov

60%

+5.3%

n=20

Dec

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-24	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Sale	10,000 @ $21.71	$217K	−15.8% of holding	+0.6%	−1.4%	53,195	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Sale	5,826 @ $22.00	$128K	−8.4% of holding	−0.8%	−3.2%	63,195	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-11	GULLING DOUGLAS R	director	Sale	7,900 @ $21.75	$172K	−9.8% of holding	+5.6%	−1.6%	72,338	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19	NELSON DAVID D	director	Purchase	639 @ $22.27	$14K	+0.5% of holding	−1.0%	−18.1%	124,866	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-23	Vaughan Therese M	director	Award / grant	1,430	14,581	Form 4
2026-04-23	GAER STEVEN K	director	Award / grant	1,430	25,451	Form 4
2026-04-23	McMurray Sean Patrick	director	Award / grant	1,430	48,560	Form 4
2026-04-23	GULLING DOUGLAS R	director	Award / grant	1,430	73,768	Form 4
2026-04-23	Elming Lisa J	director	Award / grant	1,430	9,048	Form 4
2026-04-23	Parson Rosemary	director	Award / grant	1,430	8,148	Form 4
2026-04-23	Sorensen John Kevin	director	Award / grant	1,430	3,168	Form 4
2026-03-25	NELSON DAVID D	director	Withheld for tax	6,811	117,340	Form 4
2026-03-25	OLAFSON HARLEE	officer	Withheld for tax	6,334	135,948	Form 4
2026-03-25	WINTERBOTTOM BRAD L	officer	Withheld for tax	6,162	148,589	Form 4
2026-03-25	Peters Bradley P	officer	Withheld for tax	6,111	86,524	Form 4
2026-03-25	FUNK JANE M	officer	Withheld for tax	6,033	71,517	Form 4
2026-02-23	NELSON DAVID D	director	Award / grant	17,000	124,966	Form 4
2026-02-23	FUNK JANE M	officer	Award / grant	15,000	78,269	Form 4
2026-02-23	WINTERBOTTOM BRAD L	officer	Award / grant	15,000	155,470	Form 4
2026-02-23	OLAFSON HARLEE	officer	Award / grant	15,000	143,001	Form 4
2026-02-23	Peters Bradley P	officer	Award / grant	15,000	93,354	Form 4
2026-02-17	NOYCE JAMES	director	Gift	1,000	1,800	Form 4
2025-05-06	NELSON DAVID D	director	Gift	9,423	108,291	Form 4
2025-05-06	NELSON DAVID D	director	Gift	9,423	107,457	Form 4
2025-04-24	GAER STEVEN K	director	Award / grant	1,738	24,021	Form 4
2025-04-24	McMurray Sean Patrick	director	Award / grant	1,738	47,130	Form 4
2025-04-24	NOYCE JAMES	director	Award / grant	1,738	22,021	Form 4
2025-04-24	Parson Rosemary	director	Award / grant	1,738	6,718	Form 4
2025-04-24	GULLING DOUGLAS R	director	Award / grant	1,738	80,238	Form 4
2025-04-24	Vaughan Therese M	director	Award / grant	1,738	13,151	Form 4
2025-04-24	Elming Lisa J	director	Award / grant	1,738	7,618	Form 4
2025-04-24	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Award / grant	1,738	69,021	Form 4
2025-03-25	OLAFSON HARLEE	officer	Withheld for tax	7,335	128,326	Form 4
2025-03-25	NELSON DAVID D	director	Withheld for tax	7,152	117,714	Form 4
2025-03-25	WINTERBOTTOM BRAD L	officer	Withheld for tax	6,980	140,795	Form 4
2025-03-25	Peters Bradley P	officer	Withheld for tax	5,629	78,614	Form 4
2025-03-25	FUNK JANE M	officer	Withheld for tax	5,238	63,529	Form 4
2025-02-17	WINTERBOTTOM BRAD L	officer	Award / grant	15,000	147,775	Form 4
2025-02-17	OLAFSON HARLEE	officer	Award / grant	15,000	135,661	Form 4
2025-02-17	NELSON DAVID D	director	Award / grant	17,000	124,227	Form 4
2025-02-17	FUNK JANE M	officer	Award / grant	15,000	68,767	Form 4
2025-02-17	Peters Bradley P	officer	Award / grant	15,000	84,243	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i