Issued 2026-09-16 at $218.20 · now $218.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WSM has typically landed between $184.85 and $262.39 — a range of −15.3% to +20.3% from the issuance price $218.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($218.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $218.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $218.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $221.14 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $204.13–$238.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $184.85–$262.39
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.6% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-22 | −56.4% | −56.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-23 | −53.6% | −54.8% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +71.8% | +0.0% | +72.7% |
| 2020-03-18 | +68.4% | +0.0% | +74.3% |
| 2020-04-02 | +66.1% | +0.0% | +73.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$88.95
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$212.72
- Analyst target · range $190.00–$250.00$205.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$218.20
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 522 @ $246.39 | $129K | −2.5% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,195 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $250.00 | $250K | −4.6% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 16,894 @ $222.05 | $3.8M | −1.9% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 891,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 8,553 @ $220.02 | $1.9M | −0.9% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 913,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 5,190 @ $220.92 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 908,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 3,363 @ $222.74 | $749K | −0.4% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 888,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $219.10 | $219K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 922,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 1,112 @ $228.49 | $254K | −4.9% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 522 @ $203.07 | $106K | −2.2% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $200.00 | $3.0M | −1.6% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 923,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 9,689 @ $172.72 | $1.7M | −1.0% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 941,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 7,302 @ $171.93 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 951,222 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 2,609 @ $173.78 | $453K | −0.3% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 938,924 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 400 @ $174.57 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 938,524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $200.00 | $3.0M | −1.5% of holding | −18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 958,524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 1,517 @ $192.88 | $293K | −6.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,351 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 750 @ $191.69 | $144K | −2.9% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 666 @ $188.04 | $125K | −1.9% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 340 @ $187.11 | $64K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 191 @ $188.79 | $36K | −0.6% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,360 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 116 @ $191.20 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,194 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 50 @ $190.45 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 32 @ $193.23 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 24 @ $192.29 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 21,915 @ $180.24 | $3.9M | −33.7% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 4,114 @ $181.22 | $746K | −9.5% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $182.15 | $692K | −9.7% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,749 @ $179.37 | $314K | −2.6% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,106 @ $183.11 | $203K | −3.1% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 7,926 @ $182.61 | $1.4M | −1.0% of holding | +0.9% | +8.5% | 793,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 5,162 @ $181.66 | $938K | −0.6% of holding | +0.9% | +8.5% | 801,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 3,822 @ $184.65 | $706K | −0.5% of holding | +0.9% | +8.5% | 787,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,799 @ $183.70 | $330K | −0.2% of holding | +0.9% | +8.5% | 791,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,291 @ $185.54 | $240K | −0.2% of holding | +0.9% | +8.5% | 786,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 11,699 @ $207.85 | $2.4M | −1.4% of holding | +2.5% | −0.3% | 816,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 9,748 @ $208.33 | $2.0M | −1.2% of holding | +2.5% | −0.3% | 806,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 7,731 @ $205.91 | $1.6M | −0.9% of holding | +2.5% | −0.3% | 833,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 5,822 @ $206.84 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | +2.5% | −0.3% | 827,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 767 @ $205.16 | $157K | −5.5% of holding | +5.4% | +3.5% | 13,236 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 12,161 @ $181.07 | $2.2M | −1.4% of holding | +1.8% | +0.2% | 846,927 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 9,260 @ $180.52 | $1.7M | −1.1% of holding | +2.4% | +1.5% | 859,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 5,194 @ $175.60 | $912K | −0.6% of holding | +2.4% | +1.5% | 871,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,676 @ $178.05 | $298K | −0.2% of holding | +2.4% | +1.5% | 868,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,456 @ $176.53 | $257K | −0.2% of holding | +2.4% | +1.5% | 870,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 253 @ $179.21 | $45K | −0.0% of holding | +2.4% | +1.5% | 868,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Yearout Karalyn | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $198.79 | $696K | −20.0% of holding | −7.4% | −7.4% | 14,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,558 @ $198.90 | $310K | −4.2% of holding | −7.4% | −8.8% | 35,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,139 @ $199.52 | $227K | −3.2% of holding | −7.4% | −8.8% | 34,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 322 @ $196.67 | $63K | −0.9% of holding | −7.4% | −8.8% | 36,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 134 @ $197.64 | $26K | −0.4% of holding | −7.4% | −8.8% | 36,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 49,569 @ $200.02 | $9.9M | −5.2% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 909,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 32,278 @ $200.83 | $6.5M | −3.5% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 877,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 5,667 @ $198.90 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 958,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,318 @ $197.59 | $260K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 964,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 1,062 @ $196.81 | $209K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 965,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 106 @ $201.32 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −10.9% | 876,927 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | King David Randolph | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $203.60 | $3.6M | −15.1% of holding | −10.4% | −11.7% | 98,560 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 6,606 @ $168.90 | $1.1M | −0.7% of holding | +25.3% | +16.0% | 974,819 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 6,291 @ $166.86 | $1.0M | −0.6% of holding | +25.3% | +16.0% | 986,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | ALBER LAURA | director | Sale | 4,736 @ $167.71 | $794K | −0.5% of holding | +25.3% | +16.0% | 981,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,939 | 37,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Option exercise | 6,984 | 41,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howie Jeffrey | officer | Option exercise | 6,984 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Huffington Arianna | director | Award / grant | 114 | 3,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ready William J | director | Award / grant | 127 | 127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Bracey Esi Eggleston | director | Award / grant | 118 | 118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Campion Andrew | director | Award / grant | 118 | 118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 109 | 10,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Award / grant | 1,028 | 1,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Campion Andrew | director | Award / grant | 1,011 | 1,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 148 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 171 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 109 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Huffington Arianna | director | Award / grant | 994 | 994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ready William J | director | Award / grant | 1,045 | 1,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | VAN PAASSCHEN FRITS D | director | Award / grant | 1,107 | 1,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bracey Esi Eggleston | director | Award / grant | 1,011 | 1,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 162 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Dahnke Scott Arnold | director | Award / grant | 1,616 | 1,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 162 | 9,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 148 | 9,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 171 | 10,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ready William J | director | Option exercise | 1,304 | 19,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bracey Esi Eggleston | director | Option exercise | 1,257 | 10,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bracey Esi Eggleston | director | Option exercise | 1,257 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Campion Andrew | director | Option exercise | 1,257 | 2,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Campion Andrew | director | Option exercise | 1,257 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dahnke Scott Arnold | director | Option exercise | 2,103 | 42,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dahnke Scott Arnold | director | Gift | 2,103 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dahnke Scott Arnold | director | Option exercise | 2,103 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 1,280 | 9,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Finucane Anne A. | director | Option exercise | 1,280 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Huffington Arianna | director | Option exercise | 1,233 | 3,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Huffington Arianna | director | Option exercise | 1,233 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ready William J | director | Option exercise | 1,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | VAN PAASSCHEN FRITS D | director | Option exercise | 1,391 | 33,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | VAN PAASSCHEN FRITS D | director | Option exercise | 1,391 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bracey Esi Eggleston | director | Award / grant | 151 | 151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Huffington Arianna | director | Award / grant | 145 | 1,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Campion Andrew | director | Award / grant | 151 | 151 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2022-08-13 | 2021-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2021-06-14 | 2021-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2021-05-05 | 2021-03-24 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2021-02-10 | 2021-01-12 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2021-02-10 | 2021-01-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.