Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.55 · now $23.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WRBY has typically landed between $17.30 and $30.79 — a range of −26.5% to +30.7% from the issuance price $23.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,225 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WRBY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.94 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.05–$26.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.3–$30.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,225 windows spanning 2021-09-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −47.1% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-19 | −42.7% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −41.9% | −46.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-11 | +73.9% | −5.1% | +73.9% |
| 2025-11-10 | +70.0% | −5.2% | +70.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | +62.4% | +0.0% | +83.3% |
1,225 overlapping windows · 2021-09-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+4.3%
n=5
Feb
0%
−10.4%
n=5
Mar
40%
−8.1%
n=5
Apr
20%
−10.0%
n=5
May
80%
+13.5%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.9%
n=5
Jul
80%
+7.5%
n=5
Aug
40%
−5.2%
n=5
Sep
80%
+5.2%
n=5
Oct
60%
−0.9%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.9%
n=5
Dec
60%
+4.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 54,347 @ $29.84 | $1.6M | −63.6% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 9,200 @ $29.99 | $276K | −22.8% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 242,221 @ $29.69 | $7.2M | −88.6% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 217,667 @ $29.61 | $6.4M | −87.5% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Raider Jeffrey Jacob | director | Sale | 22,500 @ $29.72 | $669K | −4.9% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 36,300 @ $30.04 | $1.1M | −37.9% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Briggs Teresa | director | Sale | 3,092 @ $25.41 | $79K | −5.7% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Briggs Teresa | director | Sale | 1,908 @ $26.79 | $51K | −3.8% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Moon Youngme E | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.53 | $265K | −27.7% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 63,040 @ $30.03 | $1.9M | −55.7% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Sale | 4,833 @ $29.01 | $140K | −4.6% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Sale | 20,167 @ $28.51 | $575K | −16.1% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 22,442 @ $25.09 | $563K | −30.9% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,165 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 47,655 @ $24.29 | $1.2M | −48.7% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,165 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 27,558 @ $25.04 | $690K | −35.5% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,165 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 2,345 @ $24.08 | $56K | −4.5% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,165 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Raider Jeffrey Jacob | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $25.43 | $636K | −5.3% of holding | −18.8% | −17.0% | 448,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Sale | 15,793 @ $27.53 | $435K | −49.6% of holding | −21.8% | −24.9% | 16,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 80,094 @ $29.46 | $2.4M | −68.3% of holding | −24.7% | −13.9% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 660 @ $29.99 | $20K | −1.7% of holding | −24.7% | −13.9% | 37,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 19,906 @ $29.09 | $579K | −34.8% of holding | −20.2% | −11.3% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $27.09 | $2.0M | −66.8% of holding | −5.9% | −2.7% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $27.08 | $1.4M | −57.4% of holding | −5.9% | −2.7% | 37,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $25.99 | $1.3M | −57.4% of holding | −6.2% | +3.8% | 37,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $24.99 | $1.2M | −36.5% of holding | −6.2% | +3.8% | 87,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $24.29 | $1.2M | −26.7% of holding | −6.2% | +3.8% | 137,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $24.29 | $1.2M | −57.3% of holding | −6.2% | +3.8% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $22.46 | $562K | −40.2% of holding | +14.5% | +13.9% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Cutler Joel E | director | Sale | 19,932 @ $26.01 | $518K | −49.9% of holding | +3.5% | −13.5% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Raider Jeffrey Jacob | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $27.42 | $686K | −4.9% of holding | +3.5% | −19.0% | 483,485 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $30.20 | $6.0M | −84.3% of holding | −4.7% | −22.9% | 37,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $30.29 | $3.0M | −72.9% of holding | −4.7% | −22.9% | 37,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Moon Youngme E | director | Sale | 38,832 @ $29.07 | $1.1M | −58.9% of holding | −4.7% | −22.9% | 27,057 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 125,000 @ $27.30 | $3.4M | −79.2% of holding | −30.7% | −23.9% | 32,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 58,360 @ $27.58 | $1.6M | −64.0% of holding | −24.0% | −18.7% | 32,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 8,416 @ $27.52 | $232K | −20.5% of holding | −24.0% | −18.7% | 32,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 600 @ $27.52 | $17K | −1.8% of holding | −20.0% | −9.6% | 32,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 500 @ $27.52 | $14K | −1.5% of holding | −20.0% | −9.6% | 32,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 41,084 @ $27.53 | $1.1M | −55.7% of holding | −18.8% | −14.0% | 32,733 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 41,040 @ $27.53 | $1.1M | −55.5% of holding | −18.8% | −14.0% | 32,861 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Cutler Joel E | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $26.75 | $936K | −63.7% of holding | −11.0% | −9.5% | 19,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $25.11 | $1.3M | −63.8% of holding | −2.2% | −26.5% | 28,347 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | Briggs Teresa | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $23.56 | $141K | −11.8% of holding | +13.8% | −12.6% | 44,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 74,500 @ $24.27 | $1.8M | −72.3% of holding | +6.8% | +1.9% | 28,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 49,600 @ $24.21 | $1.2M | −63.6% of holding | +6.8% | +1.9% | 28,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 500 @ $24.01 | $12K | −1.7% of holding | +11.7% | +6.8% | 28,475 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 400 @ $24.01 | $10K | −1.4% of holding | +11.7% | +6.8% | 28,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $22.04 | $1.1M | −63.7% of holding | +7.6% | −10.8% | 28,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Moon Youngme E | director | Sale | 33,073 @ $19.90 | $658K | −38.0% of holding | +2.9% | −28.2% | 53,869 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 159,467 @ $23.47 | $3.7M | −79.9% of holding | −18.9% | −3.5% | 40,072 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 27,968 @ $23.52 | $658K | −53.7% of holding | −18.9% | −3.5% | 24,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 27,967 @ $23.52 | $658K | −53.9% of holding | −18.9% | −3.5% | 23,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 15,533 @ $23.95 | $372K | −39.2% of holding | −18.9% | −3.5% | 24,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Miller Steven Clive | director | Sale | 11,684 @ $23.52 | $275K | −5.4% of holding | −18.9% | −3.5% | 204,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 143,917 @ $24.37 | $3.5M | −83.4% of holding | −20.1% | −4.6% | 28,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 6,083 @ $25.07 | $153K | −21.2% of holding | −20.1% | −4.6% | 22,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $27.61 | $1.4M | −80.4% of holding | −11.4% | −20.3% | 12,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 36,996 @ $25.41 | $940K | −75.0% of holding | −0.4% | −21.9% | 12,306 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Sale | 337,904 @ $25.14 | $8.5M | −96.5% of holding | +3.1% | −18.7% | 12,406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $25.14 | $7.5M | −96.1% of holding | +3.1% | −18.7% | 12,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
239 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Withheld for tax | 23,637 | 4,576,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Withheld for tax | 23,637 | 3,441,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Withheld for tax | 11,504 | 40,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Withheld for tax | 11,504 | 40,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 10,983 | 106,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 10,983 | 51,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 9,815 | 40,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 44,640 | 3,465,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 44,640 | 333,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 9,815 | 55,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 10,983 | 106,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 9,815 | 40,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 10,983 | 51,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 44,640 | 333,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 44,640 | 4,600,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 9,815 | 55,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 3,420,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 310,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 54,347 | 4,609,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Conversion | 9,200 | 40,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Conversion | 54,347 | 85,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Conversion | 9,200 | 3,220,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Conversion | 54,347 | 4,555,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 54,347 | 539,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 117,221 | 4,769,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Conversion | 189,320 | 248,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Conversion | 213,746 | 273,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Option exercise | 117,221 | 593,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gilboa David Abraham | director | Conversion | 213,746 | 4,555,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Conversion | 189,320 | 3,229,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 36,300 | 3,418,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 36,300 | 95,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 3,177,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Blumenthal Neil Harris | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 510,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Hunt Andrew | director | Award / grant | 12,005 | 1,941,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Moon Youngme E | director | Award / grant | 9,004 | 36,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Briggs Teresa | director | Award / grant | 9,004 | 53,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | SINGER BRADLEY E | director | Award / grant | 9,004 | 25,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | WILLIAMS RONALD A | director | Award / grant | 13,006 | 113,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Raider Jeffrey Jacob | director | Award / grant | 9,004 | 457,701 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.