Issued 2026-09-16 at $69.95 · now $69.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WRB has typically landed between $64.31 and $76.84 — a range of −8.1% to +9.8% from the issuance price $69.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($69.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WRB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $69.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $69.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.24 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.68–$73.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.31–$76.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −40.0% | −40.0% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −38.9% | −39.0% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-09 | +41.5% | +0.0% | +44.2% |
| 2008-10-15 | +36.6% | −2.1% | +36.6% |
| 2008-10-16 | +36.2% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$28.1B
market cap
$4.87
EPS (TTM)
15.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-19
next earnings
Revenue$14.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.29
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$136.67
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$79.78
- Analyst target · range $58.00–$80.00$70.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$69.95
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.4%
n=18
Feb
74%
+1.5%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.4%
n=19
May
68%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 73,185 @ $72.52 | $5.3M | +0.1% of holding | −6.7% | −18.5% | 58,780,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 38,991 @ $71.60 | $2.8M | +0.1% of holding | −6.7% | −18.5% | 58,707,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,897 @ $73.20 | $7.4M | +0.2% of holding | −4.5% | −19.3% | 58,668,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,103 @ $72.29 | $3.3M | +0.1% of holding | −4.5% | −19.3% | 58,567,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 147,000 @ $71.63 | $10.5M | +0.3% of holding | +0.0% | −16.4% | 58,522,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 145,491 @ $71.65 | $10.4M | +0.2% of holding | −1.8% | −16.1% | 58,367,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,509 @ $72.11 | $542K | +0.0% of holding | −1.8% | −16.1% | 58,375,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 154,512 @ $71.39 | $11.0M | +0.3% of holding | −2.1% | −14.3% | 58,207,918 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,356 @ $71.77 | $1.0M | +0.0% of holding | −2.1% | −14.3% | 58,222,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 103,192 @ $70.52 | $7.3M | +0.2% of holding | −5.8% | −15.6% | 57,991,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 61,594 @ $71.28 | $4.4M | +0.1% of holding | −5.8% | −15.6% | 58,053,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 203,590 @ $71.09 | $14.5M | +0.4% of holding | −4.4% | −13.4% | 57,872,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,410 @ $71.80 | $1.2M | +0.0% of holding | −4.4% | −13.4% | 57,888,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 160,582 @ $70.80 | $11.4M | +0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −14.2% | 57,668,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,986 @ $70.53 | $21.2M | +0.5% of holding | −1.4% | −12.7% | 57,464,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,014 @ $71.50 | $3.1M | +0.1% of holding | −1.4% | −12.7% | 57,508,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 239,750 @ $70.58 | $16.9M | +0.4% of holding | −2.5% | −13.3% | 57,117,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,250 @ $70.96 | $3.2M | +0.1% of holding | −2.5% | −13.3% | 57,163,038 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 281,386 @ $71.19 | $20.0M | +0.5% of holding | −2.1% | −13.2% | 56,878,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,406 @ $69.73 | $1.1M | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −12.8% | 56,592,058 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,314 @ $70.30 | $303K | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −12.8% | 56,596,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 280 @ $71.18 | $20K | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −12.8% | 56,596,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,599 @ $71.88 | $1.3M | +0.0% of holding | −2.4% | −15.1% | 56,574,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,401 @ $72.76 | $175K | +0.0% of holding | −2.4% | −15.1% | 56,576,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,163 @ $71.45 | $798K | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −13.5% | 56,556,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,289 @ $69.59 | $646K | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −13.5% | 56,541,911 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,578 @ $70.50 | $252K | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −13.5% | 56,545,489 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,884 @ $69.09 | $1.5M | +0.0% of holding | +2.1% | −11.5% | 56,520,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,082 @ $69.92 | $845K | +0.0% of holding | +2.1% | −11.5% | 56,532,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,952 @ $69.27 | $2.5M | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | −9.4% | 56,494,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,048 @ $70.32 | $285K | +0.0% of holding | +0.6% | −9.4% | 56,498,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,694 @ $70.46 | $1.1M | +0.0% of holding | −1.6% | −10.9% | 56,454,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,306 @ $71.39 | $307K | +0.0% of holding | −1.6% | −10.9% | 56,458,656 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,472 @ $71.25 | $960K | +0.0% of holding | −4.3% | −13.3% | 56,438,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,528 @ $70.79 | $462K | +0.0% of holding | −4.3% | −13.3% | 56,425,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,415 @ $70.25 | $1.6M | +0.0% of holding | +1.7% | −8.8% | 56,418,656 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,585 @ $69.77 | $180K | +0.0% of holding | +1.7% | −8.8% | 56,396,241 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 31,653 @ $68.87 | $2.2M | +0.1% of holding | +1.9% | −7.0% | 56,393,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,347 @ $67.75 | $565K | +0.0% of holding | +1.9% | −7.0% | 56,362,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 237,062 @ $67.71 | $16.1M | +0.4% of holding | +5.5% | −5.1% | 56,340,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,159 @ $68.42 | $900K | +0.0% of holding | +5.5% | −5.1% | 56,353,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 195,000 @ $68.36 | $13.3M | +0.3% of holding | +7.7% | −3.9% | 56,103,435 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 262,282 @ $68.08 | $17.9M | +0.5% of holding | +8.5% | −0.9% | 55,880,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 27,718 @ $68.56 | $1.9M | +0.0% of holding | +8.5% | −0.9% | 55,908,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 280,354 @ $67.58 | $18.9M | +0.5% of holding | +7.4% | +2.3% | 55,589,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-28 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,577 @ $67.89 | $1.9M | +0.1% of holding | +7.4% | +2.3% | 55,618,435 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 325,960 @ $67.40 | $22.0M | +0.6% of holding | +7.5% | +8.2% | 55,298,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,987 @ $66.87 | $802K | +0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +8.2% | 54,972,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,582 @ $68.56 | $588K | +0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +8.2% | 55,306,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,671 @ $69.04 | $184K | +0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +8.2% | 55,309,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 800 @ $65.86 | $53K | +0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +8.2% | 54,960,304 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 293,611 @ $66.86 | $19.6M | +0.5% of holding | +7.1% | +7.5% | 54,883,115 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 76,389 @ $67.88 | $5.2M | +0.1% of holding | +7.1% | +7.5% | 54,959,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 201,081 @ $66.77 | $13.4M | +0.4% of holding | +7.1% | +6.1% | 54,422,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-23 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166,919 @ $67.18 | $11.2M | +0.3% of holding | +7.1% | +6.1% | 54,589,504 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 330,000 @ $67.45 | $22.3M | +0.6% of holding | +6.2% | +5.1% | 54,221,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 260,998 @ $67.60 | $17.6M | +0.5% of holding | +4.6% | +1.6% | 53,891,504 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 59,002 @ $66.95 | $4.0M | +0.1% of holding | +4.6% | +1.6% | 53,630,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 265,006 @ $67.75 | $18.0M | +0.5% of holding | +2.8% | −3.0% | 53,526,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,994 @ $68.08 | $3.1M | +0.1% of holding | +2.8% | −3.0% | 53,571,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Withheld for tax | 4,139 | 4,650,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Baio Richard Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 650 | 227,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SHIEL JAMES G | officer | Withheld for tax | 650 | 810,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Welt Philip S | officer | Withheld for tax | 592 | 214,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Baio Richard Mark | officer | Award / grant | 14,086 | 228,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Welt Philip S | officer | Award / grant | 14,086 | 214,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SHIEL JAMES G | officer | Award / grant | 14,086 | 811,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Award / grant | 98,593 | 4,654,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 17,366,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Augostini Christopher L | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 109,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Talisman Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 33,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BLAYLOCK RONALD E | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 121,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Rusbuldt Robert Alan | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 5,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Farrell Mary C | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 19,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mosley Daniel Lynn | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 14,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 4,555,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mattson Marie Angela | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 9,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ferre Maria Luisa | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 59,234 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | SHIEL JAMES G | officer | Gift | 1,250 | 797,197 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Withheld for tax | 4,696 | 4,552,770 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R | director | Withheld for tax | 4,277 | 17,363,285 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | SHIEL JAMES G | officer | Withheld for tax | 744 | 798,447 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Baio Richard Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 744 | 214,175 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sgaglione Lucille T | officer | Withheld for tax | 717 | 241,036 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Welt Philip S | officer | Withheld for tax | 678 | 200,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sgaglione Lucille T | officer | Award / grant | 16,126 | 241,753 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R | director | Award / grant | 111,869 | 17,367,562 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Welt Philip S | officer | Award / grant | 16,126 | 201,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | SHIEL JAMES G | officer | Award / grant | 16,126 | 799,191 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Baio Richard Mark | officer | Award / grant | 16,126 | 214,919 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Award / grant | 111,869 | 4,557,466 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Talisman Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 30,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Farrell Mary C | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 16,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Ferre Maria Luisa | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 56,144 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Mattson Marie Angela | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 6,577 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Rusbuldt Robert Alan | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 2,776 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | BLAYLOCK RONALD E | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 118,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Mosley Daniel Lynn | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 11,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Augostini Christopher L | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 106,769 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | BERKLEY WILLIAM R JR | director | Award / grant | 2,776 | 4,445,597 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-12 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-18 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-20 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-08-14 | 2025-07-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.