Issued 2026-09-16 at $107.50 · now $107.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WMT has typically landed between $99.67 and $118.85 — a range of −7.3% to +10.6% from the issuance price $107.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($107.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $107.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $107.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $109.52 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $105.3–$113.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $99.67–$118.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-21 | −25.2% | −25.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-20 | −25.1% | −25.1% | +0.1% |
| 2022-04-19 | −22.1% | −22.1% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +21.1% | +0.0% | +21.4% |
| 2020-03-12 | +21.0% | +0.0% | +21.7% |
| 2025-04-08 | +19.1% | +0.0% | +21.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$871.2B
market cap
$2.85
EPS (TTM)
38.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-20
next earnings
Revenue$713.2B
'21'26
Net income$21.9B
'21'26
Free cash flow$14.9B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr3.1%
'21'26
ROE · by yr22.0%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.67
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$135.12
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$69.66
- Analyst target · range $120.00–$155.00$140.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$107.50
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.4%
n=19
May
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
32%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Sep
68%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 3,950 @ $105.14 | $415K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 622,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Danker Daniel | officer | Sale | 50,644 @ $105.35 | $5.3M | −20.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 201,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $106.34 | $308K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 569,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 3,710 @ $113.10 | $420K | −0.6% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 626,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 1,639 @ $113.87 | $187K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 573,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 1,261 @ $114.48 | $144K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 572,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 3,775 @ $109.64 | $414K | −0.6% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 630,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $118.19 | $343K | −0.5% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,953 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,860,251 @ $120.98 | $467.0M | −0.8% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,870,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 539,737 @ $121.78 | $65.7M | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,330,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,716 @ $122.42 | $3.0M | −0.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,305,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 1,385 @ $119.83 | $166K | −0.2% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 633,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Guggina David W | officer | Sale | 11,978 @ $119.82 | $1.4M | −8.7% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,628,295 @ $113.24 | $184.4M | −0.3% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,759,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 143,038 @ $114.16 | $16.3M | −0.0% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,616,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 207,649 @ $119.01 | $24.7M | −0.0% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,387,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | McMillon C Douglas | director | Sale | 19,416 @ $118.63 | $2.3M | −0.5% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,174,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Watkins Latriece | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $118.97 | $1.3M | −8.4% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 254,178 @ $119.05 | $30.3M | −0.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,595,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 511,637 @ $119.16 | $61.0M | −0.1% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,870,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,442 @ $120.46 | $2.3M | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,850,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,261 @ $121.01 | $153K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,849,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 949,671 @ $120.22 | $114.2M | −0.2% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 511,935,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 638,881 @ $119.66 | $76.4M | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 512,885,575 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,948 @ $121.07 | $357K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 511,932,956 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Furner John R. | director | Sale | 12,100 @ $124.01 | $1.5M | −1.8% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 662,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $123.92 | $359K | −0.5% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 577,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Furner John R. | director | Sale | 1,025 @ $124.93 | $128K | −0.2% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 661,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $133.77 | $167K | −0.2% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 635,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | McMillon C Douglas | director | Sale | 19,416 @ $132.21 | $2.6M | −0.5% of holding | −14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,193,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Furner John R. | director | Sale | 6,703 @ $124.63 | $835K | −1.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 680,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Furner John R. | director | Sale | 6,422 @ $125.06 | $803K | −0.9% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 674,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 2,003 @ $124.37 | $249K | −0.3% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 596,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 897 @ $125.51 | $113K | −0.2% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 596,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 1,335 @ $124.63 | $166K | −0.2% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 636,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | McMillon C Douglas | director | Sale | 19,416 @ $123.16 | $2.4M | −0.5% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,213,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,910,464 @ $123.11 | $235.2M | −0.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 513,524,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,069,299 @ $122.71 | $131.2M | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,434,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 299,237 @ $122.33 | $36.6M | −0.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 516,504,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Furner John R. | director | Sale | 13,125 @ $121.96 | $1.6M | −1.9% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 687,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Bartlett Daniel J | officer | Sale | 1,325 @ $126.28 | $167K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | −27.7% | 638,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 995,288 @ $123.50 | $122.9M | −0.2% of holding | +2.1% | −26.7% | 517,232,960 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 376,237 @ $124.59 | $46.9M | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | −26.7% | 516,856,723 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 18,267 @ $125.15 | $2.3M | −0.0% of holding | +2.1% | −26.7% | 516,838,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,332,649 @ $124.22 | $165.5M | −0.3% of holding | +2.6% | −27.9% | 518,285,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 57,145 @ $124.41 | $7.1M | −0.0% of holding | +2.6% | −27.9% | 518,228,248 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 67,796 @ $128.00 | $8.7M | −0.0% of holding | +2.6% | −28.9% | 519,618,042 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 682,539 @ $128.16 | $87.5M | −0.1% of holding | +1.1% | −29.4% | 520,735,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 314,572 @ $128.10 | $40.3M | −0.1% of holding | +3.0% | −29.5% | 521,418,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Rainey John D | director | Sale | 17,835 @ $127.74 | $2.3M | −3.5% of holding | +3.0% | −29.5% | 488,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Rainey John D | director | Sale | 2,165 @ $128.19 | $278K | −0.4% of holding | +3.0% | −29.5% | 486,764 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,359,406 @ $127.68 | $173.6M | −0.3% of holding | +4.3% | −31.9% | 522,923,009 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 342,060 @ $128.06 | $43.8M | −0.1% of holding | +4.3% | −31.9% | 522,580,949 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 21,770 @ $127.12 | $2.8M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | −29.6% | 524,282,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | McMillon C Douglas | director | Sale | 19,416 @ $126.71 | $2.5M | −0.5% of holding | +6.7% | −29.6% | 4,023,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 65,537 @ $127.17 | $8.3M | −0.0% of holding | +4.0% | −27.8% | 524,607,185 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,734 @ $127.01 | $474K | −0.0% of holding | +1.5% | −28.6% | 524,672,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 844,309 @ $125.63 | $106.1M | −0.2% of holding | +1.2% | −27.5% | 525,032,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 355,691 @ $126.40 | $45.0M | −0.1% of holding | +1.2% | −27.5% | 524,676,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Nicholas Christopher James | officer | Sale | 34,082 @ $122.00 | $4.2M | −6.0% of holding | +3.0% | −27.0% | 533,466 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Dallaire Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 387 | 377,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Watkins Latriece | director | Withheld for tax | 227 | 115,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Milum Dwayne M | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 49,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Guggina David W | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 124,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Danker Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 52,459 | 252,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Dallaire Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 387 | 377,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Watkins Latriece | director | Withheld for tax | 227 | 115,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Milum Dwayne M | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 49,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Guggina David W | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 124,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Dallaire Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 387 | 378,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Watkins Latriece | director | Withheld for tax | 227 | 116,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Milum Dwayne M | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 49,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Guggina David W | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 124,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Penner Gregory Boyd | director | Award / grant | 502 | 263,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | STEPHENSON RANDALL L | director | Award / grant | 419 | 67,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Walton Steuart L | director | Award / grant | 309 | 82,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Friar Sarah | director | Award / grant | 309 | 62,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Award / grant | 276 | 14,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mehrotra Shishir | director | Award / grant | 254 | 3,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MAYER MARISSA A | director | Award / grant | 254 | 133,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Conde Cesar | director | Award / grant | 254 | 33,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harris Carla A | director | Award / grant | 155 | 52,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,703,000 | 499,835,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 767,000 | 501,538,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watkins Latriece | director | Withheld for tax | 3,667 | 116,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Walton Family Holdings Trust | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 886,000 | 506,730,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | STEPHENSON RANDALL L | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 66,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Conde Cesar | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 33,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Friar Sarah | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 62,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | HORTON THOMAS W | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 59,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Harris Carla A | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 52,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | MAYER MARISSA A | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 133,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mehrotra Shishir | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 3,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 13,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penner Gregory Boyd | director | Award / grant | 2,881 | 262,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Walton Steuart L | director | Award / grant | 1,935 | 82,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Dallaire Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 388 | 378,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Watkins Latriece | director | Withheld for tax | 228 | 119,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Milum Dwayne M | officer | Withheld for tax | 122 | 49,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Guggina David W | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 137,045 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2026-02-23 | 2026-01-13 | $50–100K |
| John Mcguire | House | sale | 2026-02-10 | 2026-01-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Katie Britt | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-26 | 2025-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.