WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.Industrials · Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $126.84 · now $126.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WMS has typically landed between $107.32 and $150.57 — a range of −15.4% to +18.7% from the issuance price $126.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,033 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($126.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WMS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $126.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$107.32worst · -15.4%$150.57best · +18.7%
  • now $126.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $127.34 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $118.06–$136.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.32–$150.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,033 windows spanning 2014-07-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−52.6%−52.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−49.1%−49.1%+2.3%
2020-02-20−49.0%−50.1%+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-14+61.1%+0.0%+61.1%
2022-07-18+60.6%+0.0%+60.6%
2022-07-15+59.7%+0.0%+59.7%

3,033 overlapping windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.5%
n=12
Feb
58%
+3.9%
n=12
Mar
50%
−2.8%
n=12
Apr
67%
+4.3%
n=12
May
75%
+3.8%
n=12
Jun
75%
+4.7%
n=12
Jul
50%
+2.9%
n=12
Aug
54%
+4.1%
n=13
Sep
54%
−0.0%
n=13
Oct
50%
−1.4%
n=12
Nov
67%
+3.3%
n=12
Dec
50%
−0.7%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$175$1252025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — EVERSOLE ROBERT M2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $233K — WAUN THOMAS J. SR.2025-11-12: 6 insider sales, $12.8M — BARBOUR D. SCOTT, MAKOWSKI TIM A, WAUN THOMAS J. SR. …2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $189K — WAUN THOMAS J. SR.2025-11: 8 open-market sales, $13.2M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector EVERSOLE ROBERT M — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WAUN THOMAS J. SR. — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector BARBOUR D. SCOTT — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MAKOWSKI TIM A — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BARBOUR D. SCOTT — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BARBOUR D. SCOTT — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer WAUN THOMAS J. SR. — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MAKOWSKI TIM A — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer WAUN THOMAS J. SR. — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-03EVERSOLE ROBERT MdirectorSale10,569 @ $152.82$1.6M−17.4% of holding−1.0%−22.6%50,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26WAUN THOMAS J. SR.officerSale1,500 @ $155.00$233K−10.0% of holding−4.5%−23.5%13,470Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-12BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorSale73,462 @ $148.96$10.9M−62.1% of holding−0.4%−18.7%44,897Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12MAKOWSKI TIM AofficerSale4,800 @ $149.21$716K−65.1% of holding−0.4%−18.7%2,568Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorSale4,538 @ $148.01$672K−3.7% of holding−0.4%−18.7%118,359Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorSale2,030 @ $150.66$306K−4.5% of holding−0.4%−18.7%42,867Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12WAUN THOMAS J. SR.officerSale1,000 @ $150.00$150K−6.3% of holding−0.4%−18.7%14,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12MAKOWSKI TIM AofficerSale101 @ $149.19$15K−3.9% of holding−0.4%−18.7%2,467Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11WAUN THOMAS J. SR.officerSale1,272 @ $148.30$189K−61.5% of holding+1.9%−15.2%797Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09HARVEY DARIN S.officerSale4,464 @ $116.39$520K−60.7% of holding−0.0%+12.8%2,890Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19HARVEY DARIN S.officerSale1,488 @ $125.00$186K−32.7% of holding−1.5%+12.7%3,069Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19HARVEY DARIN S.officerSale976 @ $125.00$122K−24.1% of holding−1.5%+12.7%3,069Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

166 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Coyle Patrick M. JrofficerWithheld for tax2610,039Form 4
2026-09-01EVERSOLE ROBERT MdirectorGift2,3862,253Form 4
2026-09-01EVERSOLE ROBERT MdirectorGift2,38651,462Form 4
2026-08-20BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorGift2,00051,652Form 4
2026-07-16FRATTO TANYA DdirectorAward / grant1,11030,552Form 4
2026-07-16COLEMAN MICHAEL B.directorAward / grant1,11012,587Form 4
2026-07-16GAST KELLY S.directorAward / grant1,1108,981Form 4
2026-07-16Seetharam AnildirectorAward / grant1,78216,240Form 4
2026-07-16EVERSOLE ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant2,2534,639Form 4
2026-07-16PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorAward / grant1,78225,070Form 4
2026-07-16CHAIBI ANESAdirectorAward / grant1,1108,698Form 4
2026-07-16FISCHER ALEXANDER RdirectorAward / grant1,11017,564Form 4
2026-06-12BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorOther acquisition5110Form 4
2026-06-12BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorOther acquisition51153,652Form 4
2026-05-26TAYLOR CRAIG J.officerAward / grant1,53014,873Form 4
2026-05-26TAYLOR CRAIG J.officerAward / grant3,4063,406Form 4
2026-05-26Martz BretofficerAward / grant1,2523,089Form 4
2026-05-26KING BRIAN W.officerAward / grant95021,686Form 4
2026-05-26KING BRIAN W.officerAward / grant2,1152,115Form 4
2026-05-26MAKOWSKI TIM AofficerAward / grant8476,722Form 4
2026-05-26MAKOWSKI TIM AofficerAward / grant1,8861,886Form 4
2026-05-26Coyle Patrick M. JrofficerAward / grant1,25210,065Form 4
2026-05-26Coyle Patrick M. JrofficerAward / grant2,7872,787Form 4
2026-05-26BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorAward / grant9,03677,268Form 4
2026-05-26BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorAward / grant20,12420,124Form 4
2026-05-26Cottrill Scott AofficerAward / grant2,503110,511Form 4
2026-05-26Cottrill Scott AofficerAward / grant5,5735,573Form 4
2026-05-26Martz BretofficerAward / grant2,7872,787Form 4
2026-05-26TALLEY KEVIN CofficerAward / grant1,21763,453Form 4
2026-05-26TALLEY KEVIN CofficerAward / grant2,7092,709Form 4
2026-05-22BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorWithheld for tax1,89868,232Form 4
2026-05-22Cottrill Scott AofficerWithheld for tax604108,008Form 4
2026-05-22TALLEY KEVIN CofficerWithheld for tax32462,236Form 4
2026-05-22KING BRIAN W.officerWithheld for tax23020,736Form 4
2026-05-22WAUN THOMAS J. SR.officerWithheld for tax21817,590Form 4
2026-05-22TAYLOR CRAIG J.officerWithheld for tax15213,343Form 4
2026-05-22MAKOWSKI TIM AofficerWithheld for tax1295,875Form 4
2026-05-22Coyle Patrick M. JrofficerWithheld for tax1128,813Form 4
2026-05-20BARBOUR D. SCOTTdirectorWithheld for tax1,13040,803Form 4
2026-05-20Cottrill Scott AofficerWithheld for tax33998,537Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.