WMG · TickerCove

WMGWarner Music Group Corp.Communication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.30 · now $28.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WMG has typically landed between $23.91 and $33.05 — a range of −15.5% to +16.8% from the issuance price $28.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,559 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.3 · 43% of range

$23.52 low$34.56 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 13.1%

−15.5%worst (p90)+16.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where WMG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.3 (+0.0%)
typical $28.16 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $26.31–$30.02
90% range $23.91–$33.05

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,559 windows spanning 2020-06-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-11	−31.5%	−31.5%	+0.6%
2022-04-08	−30.9%	−30.9%	+0.0%
2022-04-07	−27.4%	−27.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-11-02	+35.9%	−1.1%	+35.9%
2020-11-23	+35.7%	+0.0%	+35.7%
2022-11-03	+35.1%	+0.0%	+37.5%

1,559 overlapping windows · 2020-06-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.5%

n=6

Feb

33%

−4.6%

n=6

Mar

33%

−2.7%

n=6

Apr

33%

−1.9%

n=6

May

33%

−5.7%

n=6

Jun

67%

−3.1%

n=6

Jul

71%

+7.5%

n=7

Aug

57%

+2.1%

n=7

Sep

57%

+0.3%

n=7

Oct

50%

+2.6%

n=6

Nov

67%

+5.1%

n=6

Dec

67%

+6.9%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-11	ZERZA ARMIN	officer	Purchase	35,778 @ $28.12	$1.0M	+16.4% of holding	+12.2%	−6.6%	254,119	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	Blavatnik Valentin	director	Purchase	35,810 @ $27.88	$998K	−25.6% of holding	+9.0%	−2.5%	104,074	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02	Matusch Timothy	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $31.43	$31K	−1.1% of holding	−3.2%	−8.0%	87,649	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20	Blavatnik Valentin	director	Sale	28,230 @ $35.45	$1.0M	−29.3% of holding	−1.0%	−11.6%	68,264	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14	Matusch Timothy	officer	Sale	1,103 @ $36.49	$40K	−1.2% of holding	−1.5%	−15.9%	88,649	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12	Osherova Maria	officer	Sale	6,553 @ $33.90	$222K	−12.8% of holding	+2.1%	−13.4%	44,699	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-20	Benet Lincoln E	director	Sale	35,000 @ $30.96	$1.1M	−12.6% of holding	−7.2%	−17.7%	242,360	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Kurzman Cecelia	director	Award / grant	84	34,338	Form 4
2026-09-01	Dopfner Mathias	director	Award / grant	45	30,693	Form 4
2026-09-01	Dubuc Nancy	director	Award / grant	45	29,989	Form 4
2026-09-01	Lynton Michael	director	Award / grant	122	53,886	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hertz Noreena	director	Award / grant	45	30,693	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kreiz Ynon	director	Award / grant	45	36,910	Form 4
2026-06-02	Lynton Michael	director	Award / grant	56	53,716	Form 4
2026-06-02	Dubuc Nancy	director	Award / grant	38	29,944	Form 4
2026-06-02	Kurzman Cecelia	director	Award / grant	38	34,221	Form 4
2026-06-02	Dopfner Mathias	director	Award / grant	38	32,277	Form 4
2026-06-02	Hertz Noreena	director	Award / grant	38	32,277	Form 4
2026-06-02	Kreiz Ynon	director	Award / grant	38	36,865	Form 4
2026-05-21	ZERZA ARMIN	officer	Gift	27,521	408,666	Form 4
2026-05-12	ZERZA ARMIN	officer	Withheld for tax	27,064	436,187	Form 4
2026-05-12	ZERZA ARMIN	officer	Award / grant	209,132	463,251	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	Blavatnik Valentin	director	Other acquisition	280,000	280,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	Blavatnik Valentin	director	Other acquisition	280,000	280,000	Form 4
2026-04-16	AI Entertainment Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	280,000	1,120,000	Form 4
2026-03-04	Dopfner Mathias	director	Withheld for tax	1,629	30,610	Form 4
2026-03-04	Hertz Noreena	director	Withheld for tax	1,629	30,610	Form 4
2026-03-04	Kreiz Ynon	director	Award / grant	6,186	36,827	Form 4
2026-03-04	Dopfner Mathias	director	Award / grant	6,186	32,239	Form 4
2026-03-04	Dubuc Nancy	director	Award / grant	6,186	29,906	Form 4
2026-03-04	Lynton Michael	director	Award / grant	9,014	53,660	Form 4
2026-03-04	Hertz Noreena	director	Award / grant	6,186	32,239	Form 4
2026-03-04	Kurzman Cecelia	director	Award / grant	6,186	34,183	Form 4
2026-02-12	Karp Hannah Jasmine	officer	Award / grant	19,225	19,225	Form 4
2026-01-05	Kyncl Robert	director	Withheld for tax	43,014	731,365	Form 4
2026-01-05	Moot Guy	officer	Withheld for tax	13,122	229,084	Form 4
2026-01-05	Marshall Carianne	officer	Withheld for tax	13,122	229,084	Form 4
2026-01-05	Higginson Carletta	officer	Withheld for tax	10,388	200,596	Form 4
2026-01-05	Osherova Maria	officer	Withheld for tax	7,148	96,827	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i