Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.90 · now $70.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WMB has typically landed between $65.39 and $79.69 — a range of −7.8% to +12.4% from the issuance price $70.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WMB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $70.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.26 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $69.3–$75.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.39–$79.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +2.6% |
| 2015-12-11 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −48.5% | −56.0% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +95.4% | +0.0% | +95.4% |
| 2020-03-19 | +70.9% | +0.0% | +70.9% |
| 2016-02-08 | +60.8% | +0.0% | +71.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$90.5B
market cap
$2.29
EPS (TTM)
32.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$11.9B
'20'25
Net income$2.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr20.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.30
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$60.90
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$46.42
- Analyst target · range $75.00–$99.00$82.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$70.90
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
84%
+6.8%
n=19
May
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Jun
63%
+2.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.2%
n=18
Dec
44%
−2.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $75.56 | $151K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 264,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 10,200 @ $74.88 | $764K | −3.7% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,159 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $74.84 | $210K | −1.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,359 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $70.65 | $141K | −0.7% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $74.16 | $148K | −0.7% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 283,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $71.30 | $143K | −0.7% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Sale | 1,664 @ $78.17 | $130K | −3.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,101 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Sale | 836 @ $78.13 | $65K | −1.5% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,101 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Larsen Larry C | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $76.48 | $918K | −10.9% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Porter John Dean | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $75.37 | $3.8M | −20.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $76.35 | $153K | −0.7% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 287,159 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $71.75 | $144K | −0.7% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 289,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Fazel Payvand | officer | Sale | 2,898 @ $73.15 | $212K | −8.4% of holding | −7.7% | −16.7% | 31,766 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Rinke Todd J. | officer | Sale | 7,364 @ $74.39 | $548K | −22.0% of holding | −2.3% | −14.1% | 26,055 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $75.24 | $150K | −0.7% of holding | +1.1% | −12.5% | 291,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Hausman Mary A. | officer | Sale | 10,107 @ $74.91 | $757K | −37.0% of holding | +6.9% | −11.8% | 17,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 27,000 @ $72.92 | $2.0M | −8.4% of holding | +5.3% | −13.9% | 293,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $66.39 | $133K | −0.7% of holding | +15.7% | −2.1% | 293,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $60.11 | $120K | −0.7% of holding | +11.6% | +15.1% | 295,545 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $61.90 | $124K | −0.7% of holding | −3.1% | +9.5% | 297,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $60.53 | $242K | −1.3% of holding | −0.1% | +21.8% | 302,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $57.62 | $115K | −0.6% of holding | +9.6% | +26.9% | 311,645 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Larsen Larry C | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $58.47 | $263K | −5.5% of holding | −1.4% | +11.1% | 77,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $59.68 | $119K | −0.6% of holding | −7.8% | −0.6% | 313,645 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $62.70 | $125K | −0.6% of holding | −0.2% | −7.7% | 315,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $61.21 | $122K | −0.6% of holding | −7.6% | −13.4% | 317,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $58.21 | $116K | −0.6% of holding | −1.9% | −22.8% | 319,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $59.53 | $119K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | −12.9% | 321,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Larsen Larry C | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $56.94 | $456K | −9.0% of holding | +4.5% | −11.1% | 81,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Dunn Micheal G. | officer | Sale | 96,687 @ $53.04 | $5.1M | −11.9% of holding | +13.9% | −6.9% | 714,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Hausman Mary A. | officer | Sale | 8,896 @ $57.50 | $512K | −28.5% of holding | +11.3% | −8.8% | 22,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $58.49 | $117K | −0.6% of holding | +9.7% | −9.0% | 325,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Teply Chad A. | officer | Sale | 26,000 @ $56.46 | $1.5M | −16.3% of holding | +10.9% | −6.7% | 133,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $54.92 | $110K | −0.7% of holding | +2.5% | +1.1% | 296,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $54.50 | $109K | −0.7% of holding | −3.2% | −1.7% | 298,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
197 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Gift | 100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Gift | 1,900 | 266,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Wingo Robert R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,226 | 48,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Turner Robb E | director | Award / grant | 2,785 | 8,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Helms Lloyd W Jr | director | Award / grant | 2,785 | 2,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Porter John Dean | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,176 | 197,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Porter John Dean | officer | Option exercise | 1,899 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Porter John Dean | officer | Option exercise | 1,899 | 198,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | BERGSTROM STEPHEN W | director | Gift | 16,400 | 198,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Option exercise | 1,664 | 4,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Option exercise | 1,664 | 55,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Option exercise | 836 | 54,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Option exercise | 836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | BERGSTROM STEPHEN W | director | Award / grant | 10,355 | 215,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SPENCE WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 5,086 | 79,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SHEFFIELD SCOTT D | director | Award / grant | 4,873 | 76,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Ragauss Peter A | director | Award / grant | 4,873 | 75,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | CREEL MICHAEL A | director | Award / grant | 4,873 | 84,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | ROBESON ROSE M | director | Award / grant | 3,818 | 37,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Muncrief Richard E | director | Award / grant | 3,415 | 24,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Tyson Jesse J | director | Award / grant | 3,415 | 25,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lockhart Carri A. | director | Award / grant | 3,250 | 19,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Award / grant | 5,637 | 54,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fazel Payvand | officer | Award / grant | 5,637 | 34,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fazel Payvand | officer | Award / grant | 5,327 | 5,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fazel Payvand | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,464 | 29,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Jasek Glen G. | officer | Award / grant | 5,327 | 5,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ARMSTRONG ALAN S | director | Other acquisition | 241,248 | 2,503,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ARMSTRONG ALAN S | director | Other acquisition | 241,248 | 192,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Gift | 3,000 | 100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | ARMSTRONG ALAN S | director | Option exercise | 295,519 | 616,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | ARMSTRONG ALAN S | director | Withheld for tax | 129,633 | 486,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Zamarin Chad J. | director | Option exercise | 73,880 | 784,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Porter John Dean | officer | Option exercise | 64,029 | 292,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | ARMSTRONG ALAN S | director | Withheld for tax | 53,462 | 433,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilson Terrance Lane | officer | Option exercise | 44,327 | 351,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Larsen Larry C | officer | Option exercise | 36,939 | 137,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Teply Chad A. | officer | Option exercise | 34,478 | 167,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Zamarin Chad J. | director | Withheld for tax | 32,418 | 752,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | PICKLE DEBBIE L. | officer | Option exercise | 32,015 | 125,709 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-06-24 | $1M+ |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-06-22 | $250–500K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2025-08-25 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2025-08-25 | 2025-03-17 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2025-08-25 | 2025-03-24 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $50–100K |
| Dwight Evans | House | sale | 2025-04-17 | 2025-04-03 | $1–15K |
| Kevin Hern | House | purchase | 2024-07-15 | 2024-06-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.