Issued 2026-09-16 at $214.00 · now $214.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WM has typically landed between $198.20 and $232.80 — a range of −7.4% to +8.8% from the issuance price $214.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($214.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $214 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $214 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $215.41 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $207.82–$223
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $198.2–$232.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −29.1% | −29.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −26.4% | −26.4% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −25.4% | −28.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +20.2% | +0.0% | +20.2% |
| 2008-10-10 | +19.1% | +0.0% | +27.1% |
| 2008-12-02 | +19.0% | +0.0% | +19.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$302.66
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$211.81
- Analyst target · range $244.00–$264.00$254.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$214.00
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 1,365 @ $219.90 | $300K | −28.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 2,655 @ $220.47 | $585K | −14.6% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,540 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Morris John J | officer | Sale | 4,211 @ $243.38 | $1.0M | −4.0% of holding | −5.7% | −24.8% | 99,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Sale | 121 @ $245.27 | $30K | −1.3% of holding | −5.7% | −24.8% | 9,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Reed David L. | officer | Sale | 75 @ $245.26 | $18K | −0.9% of holding | −5.7% | −24.8% | 8,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | DeSantis Christopher P. | officer | Sale | 61 @ $245.50 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | −24.8% | 9,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 47 @ $245.30 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | −5.7% | −24.8% | 8,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Morris John J | officer | Sale | 7,979 @ $245.07 | $2.0M | −7.5% of holding | −3.1% | −25.4% | 98,656 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Sale | 617 @ $244.13 | $151K | −6.0% of holding | −1.3% | −21.5% | 9,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Sale | 12,642 @ $241.81 | $3.1M | −22.3% of holding | −0.1% | −21.5% | 44,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Sale | 4,818 @ $241.83 | $1.2M | −5.8% of holding | −0.1% | −21.5% | 78,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Sale | 4,609 @ $241.83 | $1.1M | −7.5% of holding | −0.1% | −21.5% | 56,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Sale | 21 @ $243.13 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | −0.1% | −21.5% | 4,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Reed David L. | officer | Sale | 21 @ $242.65 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | −21.5% | 8,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Reed David L. | officer | Sale | 37 @ $229.67 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +4.4% | −18.6% | 8,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 37 @ $229.47 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +4.4% | −18.6% | 8,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Donald J | officer | Sale | 7,352 @ $233.48 | $1.7M | −55.0% of holding | +2.9% | −17.1% | 6,024 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Donald J | officer | Sale | 4,842 @ $233.48 | $1.1M | −26.6% of holding | +2.9% | −17.1% | 13,376 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 7,352 @ $234.50 | $1.7M | −32.1% of holding | +2.7% | −17.6% | 15,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 1,021 @ $234.71 | $240K | −10.9% of holding | +6.3% | −16.7% | 8,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Fish James C Jr | director | Sale | 5,706 @ $230.87 | $1.3M | −2.5% of holding | +6.7% | −13.7% | 220,087 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Fish James C Jr | director | Sale | 30,390 @ $230.36 | $7.0M | −11.9% of holding | +5.1% | −12.4% | 225,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Fish James C Jr | director | Sale | 657 @ $230.00 | $151K | −0.3% of holding | +5.8% | −11.8% | 256,183 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Sale | 690 @ $219.71 | $152K | −0.8% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 83,736 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Smith Donald J | officer | Sale | 690 @ $219.59 | $152K | −4.9% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 13,376 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Morris John J | officer | Sale | 690 @ $219.49 | $151K | −0.6% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 106,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 690 @ $219.01 | $151K | −2.9% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 22,892 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Boettcher Charles C | officer | Sale | 689 @ $219.32 | $151K | −1.2% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 56,159 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Sale | 687 @ $219.79 | $151K | −1.4% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 48,755 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Sale | 428 @ $219.63 | $94K | −4.0% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 10,224 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Reed David L. | officer | Sale | 270 @ $218.62 | $59K | −3.0% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 8,843 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 220 @ $219.57 | $48K | −2.3% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 9,330 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | DeSantis Christopher P. | officer | Sale | 215 @ $218.85 | $47K | −2.2% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 9,561 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Sale | 157 @ $219.65 | $34K | −3.2% of holding | +11.2% | −7.3% | 4,776 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 1,380 @ $217.06 | $300K | −8.2% of holding | −3.5% | −15.5% | 15,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | MENKE SEAN E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $196.42 | $393K | +37.6% of holding | +9.8% | +4.9% | 7,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $225.19 | $23K | −2.4% of holding | −5.3% | +6.0% | 4,089 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 1,159 @ $240.00 | $278K | −6.4% of holding | −9.8% | −25.6% | 16,920 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 782 @ $240.00 | $188K | −4.1% of holding | −9.8% | −25.6% | 18,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Rankin Devina A | director | Sale | 57,888 @ $237.36 | $13.7M | −40.8% of holding | −8.2% | −24.1% | 83,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 409 @ $236.81 | $97K | −2.4% of holding | −8.2% | −24.1% | 16,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 265 @ $236.81 | $63K | −1.5% of holding | −8.2% | −24.1% | 16,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Morris John J | officer | Sale | 23,795 @ $233.32 | $5.6M | −20.5% of holding | −2.5% | −35.0% | 92,098 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Morris John J | officer | Sale | 19,153 @ $224.71 | $4.3M | −18.3% of holding | +8.6% | −17.2% | 85,257 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 1,251 @ $225.92 | $283K | −12.9% of holding | +8.6% | −17.2% | 8,420 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 928 @ $229.03 | $213K | −5.4% of holding | +11.5% | −15.6% | 16,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Rankin Devina A | director | Sale | 4,126 @ $228.11 | $941K | −6.2% of holding | +10.8% | −13.7% | 62,639 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Sale | 3,094 @ $228.11 | $706K | −5.5% of holding | +10.8% | −13.7% | 53,663 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Sale | 1,547 @ $228.11 | $353K | −3.4% of holding | +10.8% | −13.7% | 44,037 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Sale | 124 @ $234.96 | $29K | −1.4% of holding | +4.0% | −13.1% | 8,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Sale | 62 @ $234.77 | $15K | −1.4% of holding | +4.0% | −13.1% | 4,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Carroll John A. | officer | Sale | 47 @ $234.76 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +4.0% | −13.1% | 9,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | DeSantis Christopher P. | officer | Sale | 45 @ $234.83 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +4.0% | −13.1% | 8,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Smith Donald J | officer | Sale | 43 @ $234.81 | $10K | −0.7% of holding | +4.0% | −13.1% | 6,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Fish James C Jr | director | Sale | 44,405 @ $228.43 | $10.1M | −17.4% of holding | +2.6% | −10.0% | 211,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-24 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Sale | 5,732 @ $227.51 | $1.3M | −9.3% of holding | +2.6% | −10.0% | 55,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $225.89 | $904K | −17.8% of holding | +7.2% | −0.3% | 18,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-04 | Rankin Devina A | director | Sale | 5,826 @ $222.12 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +6.6% | −0.8% | 69,442 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-04 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Sale | 4,576 @ $222.12 | $1.0M | −7.2% of holding | +6.6% | −0.8% | 58,765 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-04 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Sale | 318 @ $222.93 | $71K | −3.5% of holding | +6.6% | −0.8% | 8,834 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
186 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 356 | 4,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Carroll John A. | officer | Gift | 4,874 | 4,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Carroll John A. | officer | Gift | 4,874 | 4,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Reed David L. | officer | Gift | 5,357 | 5,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Reed David L. | officer | Gift | 5,357 | 3,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Option exercise | 2,655 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Option exercise | 2,655 | 18,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Morris John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 566 | 99,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dalby Marcel | officer | Award / grant | 2,257 | 5,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Award / grant | 2,544 | 81,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MAZZARELLA KATHLEEN M | director | Award / grant | 1,314 | 18,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | HOLT VICTORIA M | director | Award / grant | 861 | 23,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Bene Thomas | director | Award / grant | 861 | 2,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gluski Andres | director | Award / grant | 861 | 18,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MENKE SEAN E | director | Award / grant | 861 | 861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | PLUMMER WILLIAM B | director | Award / grant | 861 | 4,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Sylvester Maryrose | director | Award / grant | 861 | 5,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chinn Bruce E. | director | Award / grant | 861 | 3,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Withheld for tax | 192 | 9,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Morris John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,484 | 104,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Morris John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,484 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Withheld for tax | 193 | 9,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Reed David L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 8,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | DeSantis Christopher P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 9,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Carroll John A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 74 | 9,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Boettcher Charles C | officer | Award / grant | 7,805 | 7,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Fish James C Jr | director | Award / grant | 57,034 | 57,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Varkey Johnson | officer | Award / grant | 6,404 | 6,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Carroll John A. | officer | Award / grant | 892 | 9,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Reed David L. | officer | Award / grant | 10,806 | 10,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Smith Donald J | officer | Award / grant | 10,006 | 10,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DeSantis Christopher P. | officer | Award / grant | 10,006 | 10,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Hemmer Tara J. | officer | Award / grant | 8,405 | 8,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Morris John J | officer | Award / grant | 19,011 | 19,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Carrasco Rafael | officer | Award / grant | 8,405 | 8,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Stith Kimberly G. | officer | Award / grant | 6,404 | 6,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 6,804 | 6,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Option exercise | 12,642 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Watson Michael J. | officer | Option exercise | 12,642 | 61,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Reed David L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 31 | 8,715 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Rick Larsen | House | purchase | 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.