WINAWinmark CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $294.87 · now $294.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WINA has typically landed between $256.21 and $338.65 — a range of −13.1% to +14.8% from the issuance price $294.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($294.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WINA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $294.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$256.21worst · -13.1%$338.65best · +14.8%
  • now $294.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $298.43 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $279.91–$316.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $256.21–$338.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-03−43.5%−43.5%+2.5%
2020-03-05−42.5%−43.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−40.8%−40.8%+0.6%
3 best
2009-06-02+39.2%+0.0%+39.2%
2009-03-17+39.0%+0.0%+39.0%
2009-03-18+35.8%+0.0%+35.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Feb
65%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.6%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.9%
n=20
May
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Jun
80%
+6.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Aug
55%
+1.8%
n=20
Sep
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.4%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$501$2952026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — GRASSLE JENELE C2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $764K — Tomlinson Percy C Jr2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — GRASSLE JENELE C2025-10-24: 2 insider sales, $501K — Gaudette Renae M. …2025-09-17: 2 insider sales, $430K — Barbetta Lawrence A …2025-08-27: 4 insider sales, $2.3M — HEFFES BRETT D …2025-08-26: 4 insider sales, $1.1M — HEFFES BRETT D …2025-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $103K — SPRENGER GINA DECARO2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $103K2025-08: 8 open-market sales, $3.4M2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $430K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $501K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector GRASSLE JENELE C — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tomlinson Percy C Jr — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same daydirector GRASSLE JENELE C — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same dayofficer Gaudette Renae M. — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed same dayofficer Gaudette Renae M. — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed same daydirector Barbetta Lawrence A — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Barbetta Lawrence A — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HEFFES BRETT D — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SPRENGER GINA DECARO — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-04GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorSale3,900 @ $475.80$1.9M−60.9% of holding−5.8%−45.0%2,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorSale1,660 @ $460.52$764K−67.5% of holding−6.5%−44.4%800Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorSale2,400 @ $420.87$1.0M−49.0% of holding−6.2%−22.1%2,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-24Gaudette Renae M.officerSale1,100 @ $415.43$457K−5.5% of holding+3.5%−12.7%18,860Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-24Gaudette Renae M.officerSale100 @ $435.62$44K−0.5% of holding+3.5%−12.7%19,960Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-17Barbetta Lawrence AdirectorSale636 @ $504.91$321K−49.5% of holding−13.0%−17.7%649Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Barbetta Lawrence AdirectorSale216 @ $505.33$109K−14.4% of holding−13.0%−17.7%1,285Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale1,985 @ $454.95$903K−1.7% of holding+7.1%−4.3%117,386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale1,630 @ $452.72$738K−1.4% of holding+7.1%−4.3%114,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale1,186 @ $454.03$538K−1.0% of holding+7.1%−4.3%116,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale170 @ $451.76$77K−0.1% of holding+7.1%−4.3%114,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale800 @ $453.82$363K−0.7% of holding+7.8%−4.1%113,651Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale641 @ $452.07$290K−0.6% of holding+7.8%−4.1%113,010Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale600 @ $458.65$275K−0.5% of holding+7.8%−4.1%114,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26HEFFES BRETT DdirectorSale400 @ $456.97$183K−0.3% of holding+7.8%−4.1%114,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13SPRENGER GINA DECAROdirectorPurchase250 @ $410.77$103Kownership Δ n/a+15.9%+2.6%250Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale2,859 @ $427.07$1.2M−4.7% of holding−14.2%−17.1%57,624Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale457 @ $422.00$193K−0.8% of holding−14.2%−17.1%56,867Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale300 @ $423.13$127K−0.5% of holding−14.2%−17.1%57,324Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale200 @ $428.14$86K−0.3% of holding−14.2%−17.1%60,483Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale184 @ $420.60$77K−0.3% of holding−14.2%−17.1%56,683Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorSale1,600 @ $428.23$685K−39.0% of holding+4.0%−11.6%2,500Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-06Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale1,034 @ $367.03$380K−1.8% of holding+10.4%−8.8%57,767Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale308 @ $365.09$112K−0.5% of holding+10.4%−8.8%57,370Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale169 @ $368.14$62K−0.3% of holding+10.4%−8.8%58,801Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06Ishaug Anthony DofficerSale89 @ $365.61$33K−0.2% of holding+10.4%−8.8%57,678Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise3,5001,900Form 4
2026-07-01Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise3,5004,300Form 4
2026-07-01Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise2004,500Form 4
2026-07-01Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise20020Form 4
2026-06-01Hake Lisa SchurkeofficerAward / grant9,2569,256Form 4
2026-06-01HEFFES BRETT DdirectorAward / grant4,6204,620Form 4
2026-06-01Ishaug Anthony DofficerAward / grant2,4202,420Form 4
2026-06-01Gaudette Renae M.officerAward / grant1,9841,984Form 4
2026-06-01Hake Lisa SchurkeofficerAward / grant1,7121,712Form 4
2026-06-01Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01Barbetta Lawrence AdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01Becker Amy CdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01Credendino KeithdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01Hoppe Stephanie S.directorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01SMITH PHILIP IRVINGdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-06-01SPRENGER GINA DECAROdirectorAward / grant356356Form 4
2026-05-05Hoppe Stephanie S.directorAward / grant3,4003,400Form 4
2026-04-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerOption exercise3,29369,776Form 4
2026-04-30Ishaug Anthony DofficerOption exercise3,2930Form 4
2026-04-28Gaudette Renae M.officerOption exercise2,50021,360Form 4
2026-04-28Gaudette Renae M.officerOption exercise2,5000Form 4
2026-02-26Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise1,6005,400Form 4
2026-02-26Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise1,6002,400Form 4
2026-02-26Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise602,460Form 4
2026-02-26Tomlinson Percy C JrdirectorOption exercise60220Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise7506,400Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise7500Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8004,900Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8000Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise7505,650Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise7500Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8000Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8004,100Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8003,300Form 4
2026-02-25GRASSLE JENELE CdirectorOption exercise8000Form 4
2025-12-15HEFFES BRETT DdirectorAward / grant2,7122,712Form 4
2025-12-15Ishaug Anthony DofficerAward / grant1,7121,712Form 4
2025-12-15Gaudette Renae M.officerAward / grant1,3161,316Form 4
2025-12-15Hake Lisa SchurkeofficerAward / grant1,2161,216Form 4
2025-12-15SPRENGER GINA DECAROdirectorAward / grant256256Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.