WFCWells Fargo & CompanyFinancial Services · Banks - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.05 · now $87.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WFC has typically landed between $76.04 and $99.37 — a range of −12.7% to +14.2% from the issuance price $87.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.04worst · -12.7%$99.37best · +14.2%
  • now $87.05 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $88.43 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $83.2–$93.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.04–$99.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−55.3%−55.3%+5.2%
2008-12-17−52.5%−52.5%+0.1%
2009-02-04−50.7%−53.4%+9.6%
3 best
2009-03-05+101.1%+0.0%+113.3%
2009-04-08+89.5%+0.0%+89.5%
2009-03-06+77.2%+0.0%+101.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$264.4B
market cap
$6.93
EPS (TTM)
12.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-13
next earnings
Revenue$123.5B
'20'25
Net income$21.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$19.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.35
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $87.05$84.89$116.20
  • DCF (intrinsic)$114.04
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$113.53
  • Analyst target · range $92.00–$108.00$94.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$87.05

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$95$732026-02-26: 2 insider sales, $7.9M — Patterson Ellen R, Engle Bridget E.2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Santos Kleber2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $10.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Patterson Ellen R — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Engle Bridget E. — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Santos Kleber — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-26Patterson Ellen RofficerSale60,000 @ $87.40$5.2M−26.1% of holding−2.8%−13.4%169,496Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Engle Bridget E.officerSale30,000 @ $87.10$2.6M−26.4% of holding−2.8%−13.4%83,478Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Santos KleberofficerSale25,000 @ $87.72$2.2M−23.8% of holding−7.1%−16.6%79,876Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

297 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Flowers Derek A.officerGift67,966341,740Form 4
2026-07-15Flowers Derek A.officerGift67,9660Form 4
2026-07-01BLACK STEVEN DdirectorAward / grant1,07658,079Form 4
2026-07-01SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant49571,135Form 4
2026-07-01Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant42242,014Form 4
2026-06-15Rosenberg Jason M.officerWithheld for tax8,07921,570Form 4
2026-06-15Rosenberg Jason M.officerOption exercise17,2180Form 4
2026-06-15Rosenberg Jason M.officerOption exercise17,21829,649Form 4
2026-05-14CRAVER THEODORE F JRdirectorGift890Form 4
2026-05-14CRAVER THEODORE F JRdirectorGift8927,201Form 4
2026-04-28Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28DAVIS RICHARD KdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28Chancy Mark AdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28CRAVER THEODORE F JRdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28BLACK STEVEN DdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28Morris Maria RdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28Norwood Felicia FdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28Morken CeCeliadirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-28GARCIA FABIAN TdirectorAward / grant3,43611,476Form 4
2026-04-28Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant3,43617,852Form 4
2026-04-01BLACK STEVEN DdirectorAward / grant1,11756,672Form 4
2026-04-01SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant49670,231Form 4
2026-04-01Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant41941,351Form 4
2026-04-01Clark Celeste A.directorAward / grant34139,589Form 4
2026-03-16Rivas FernandoofficerOther acquisition390Form 4
2026-03-05SCHARF CHARLES WdirectorWithheld for tax210,0111,288,277Form 4
2026-03-05Santomassimo Michael P.officerWithheld for tax64,036505,120Form 4
2026-03-05Sommers BarryofficerWithheld for tax50,699235,242Form 4
2026-03-05Powell ScottofficerWithheld for tax50,375400,757Form 4
2026-03-05Patterson Ellen RofficerWithheld for tax49,639217,116Form 4
2026-03-05Van Beurden SaulofficerWithheld for tax45,014259,269Form 4
2026-03-05Santos KleberofficerWithheld for tax29,930110,860Form 4
2026-03-05Flowers Derek A.officerWithheld for tax29,13167,966Form 4
2026-03-05Hranicky Kyle GofficerWithheld for tax25,042129,866Form 4
2026-03-05Ling BeiofficerWithheld for tax24,22841,221Form 4
2026-03-05Fercho KristyofficerWithheld for tax11,47793,429Form 4
2026-03-05Santomassimo Michael P.officerOption exercise125,481569,156Form 4
2026-03-05Sommers BarryofficerOption exercise101,035285,941Form 4
2026-03-05Sommers BarryofficerOption exercise101,0350Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
A. Mitchell Jr. McConnellSenatepurchase2026-06-302026-06-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Tim WalbergHousepurchase2026-06-032025-02-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Lloyd K. SmuckerHousesale2026-04-302026-04-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-11$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
A. Mitchell Jr. McConnellSenatepurchase2026-03-192026-03-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.