Issued 2026-09-25 at $456.81 · now $456.81 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, WDC has typically landed between $365.25 and $608.04 — a range of −20.0% to +33.1% from the issuance price $456.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($456.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where WDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $456.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $456.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $477.22 (+4.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $434.11–$520.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $365.25–$608.04
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −57.3% | −57.3% | +1.8% |
| 2020-02-20 | −55.0% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −54.9% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-30 | +64.0% | +0.0% | +64.0% |
| 2026-05-19 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +63.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | +60.6% | +0.0% | +60.6% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-0.7515
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$584.22
- Analyst target · range $250.00–$1,050$575.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$456.81
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gubbi Vidyadhara K | officer | Sale | 1,795 @ $459.87 | $825K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 432 @ $451.20 | $195K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | STREETER STEPHANIE A | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $455.00 | $728K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | STREETER STEPHANIE A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $448.58 | $897K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | STREETER STEPHANIE A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $447.06 | $894K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 1,007 @ $478.36 | $482K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,155 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 476 @ $450.78 | $215K | −0.4% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 684 @ $446.17 | $305K | −0.6% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,146 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 235 @ $477.27 | $112K | −0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,928 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 6,445 @ $446.38 | $2.9M | −1.1% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 577,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 4,822 @ $445.45 | $2.1M | −0.8% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 583,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 2,478 @ $441.48 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 593,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 1,880 @ $444.67 | $836K | −0.3% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 588,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 1,840 @ $443.35 | $816K | −0.3% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 590,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 1,546 @ $447.18 | $691K | −0.3% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 575,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Tan Irving | director | Sale | 989 @ $442.22 | $437K | −0.2% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 529 @ $458.96 | $243K | −2.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,072 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 328 @ $457.45 | $150K | −1.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 312 @ $456.52 | $142K | −1.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 304 @ $455.55 | $138K | −1.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 248 @ $459.97 | $114K | −1.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 199 @ $461.23 | $92K | −0.9% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 160 @ $462.30 | $74K | −0.7% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 154 @ $436.89 | $67K | −0.6% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 144 @ $453.27 | $65K | −0.6% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 128 @ $454.44 | $58K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 118 @ $438.08 | $52K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 115 @ $431.41 | $50K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 115 @ $428.08 | $49K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 112 @ $433.84 | $49K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 106 @ $452.12 | $48K | −0.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 103 @ $430.45 | $44K | −0.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 96 @ $440.96 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 93 @ $429.12 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 70 @ $451.30 | $32K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 64 @ $439.38 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 64 @ $434.81 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 64 @ $426.45 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 64 @ $424.05 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 41 @ $448.46 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 39 @ $449.42 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 38 @ $432.20 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $465.12 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $447.10 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $444.51 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $442.47 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $435.58 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 32 @ $425.31 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Sale | 808 @ $529.63 | $428K | −0.7% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 392 @ $515.40 | $202K | −1.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 326 @ $510.61 | $166K | −1.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 316 @ $513.14 | $162K | −1.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 310 @ $511.67 | $159K | −1.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 296 @ $514.09 | $152K | −1.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 216 @ $517.59 | $112K | −0.8% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 160 @ $521.14 | $83K | −0.6% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 128 @ $527.22 | $67K | −0.5% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 128 @ $502.87 | $64K | −0.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 112 @ $536.27 | $60K | −0.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Cole Martin I | director | Sale | 112 @ $516.72 | $58K | −0.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Tan Irving | director | Withheld for tax | 1,091 | 265,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 963 | 99,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Option exercise | 8 | 166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Tan Irving | director | Option exercise | 57 | 800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Tan Irving | director | Option exercise | 57 | 266,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Option exercise | 8 | 100,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Shihab Ahmed Mohammed | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,150 | 158,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Shihab Ahmed Mohammed | officer | Award / grant | 42 | 453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Das Manuvir | director | Award / grant | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Shihab Ahmed Mohammed | officer | Option exercise | 57 | 397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Award / grant | 17 | 174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Tan Irving | director | Award / grant | 83 | 857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | MASSENGILL MATTHEW E | director | Award / grant | 10 | 121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Oulman Roxanne | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | KIDDOO BRUCE E | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Award / grant | 27 | 298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Feller Brad | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 17 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Sennesael Kris | director | Award / grant | 47 | 491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Alexy Kimberly | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | STREETER STEPHANIE A | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Cole Martin I | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | DOLUCA TUNC | director | Award / grant | 1 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Gubbi Vidyadhara K | officer | Award / grant | 21 | 215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Shihab Ahmed Mohammed | officer | Option exercise | 56 | 163,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gubbi Vidyadhara K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,764 | 82,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 882 | 100,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Withheld for tax | 700 | 111,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Option exercise | 7 | 157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Option exercise | 7 | 270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Tregillis Cynthia L | officer | Option exercise | 7 | 112,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gubbi Vidyadhara K | officer | Option exercise | 14 | 194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Davis Brian Scott | officer | Option exercise | 7 | 101,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gubbi Vidyadhara K | officer | Option exercise | 14 | 84,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tan Irving | director | Gift | 112,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tan Irving | director | Gift | 112,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Tan Irving | director | Other acquisition | 112,500 | 266,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Tan Irving | director | Other acquisition | 112,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Sennesael Kris | director | Withheld for tax | 4,317 | 173,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Tan Irving | director | Withheld for tax | 3,314 | 379,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Shihab Ahmed Mohammed | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,741 | 163,702 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-11 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-17 | $15–50K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-10 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.