WCNWaste Connections, Inc.Industrials · Waste Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $156.50 · now $156.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, WCN has typically landed between $144.96 and $170.18 — a range of −7.4% to +8.7% from the issuance price $156.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($156.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where WCN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $156.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$144.96worst · -7.4%$170.18best · +8.7%
  • now $156.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $157.07 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $151.7–$162.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $144.96–$170.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−29.6%−29.6%+0.0%
2020-02-25−29.4%−29.4%+1.1%
2020-03-05−26.4%−30.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-09+30.2%+0.0%+33.1%
2009-03-05+29.3%−2.8%+29.3%
2009-03-11+27.0%+0.0%+29.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
70%
+1.4%
n=20
Mar
85%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
80%
+2.9%
n=20
May
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.4%
n=20
Jul
80%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Nov
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$186$1492026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $119K — NIELSEN III ROBERT2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $416K — RIVARD PHILIP2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $291K — Netherton Susan2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $52K — NIELSEN III ROBERT2026-07-28: 2 insider sales, $481K — Cloninger Robert Michael …2026-06-05: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Shea Patrick James, CRAFT JASON2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $78K — NIELSEN III ROBERT2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $44K — NIELSEN III ROBERT2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $7.6M — MITTELSTAEDT RONALD J2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $52K — NIELSEN III ROBERT2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $989K — HANSEN ERIC2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $427K — LITTLE JAMES2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $201K — TAN DEREK2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $335K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $201K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $7.6M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $173K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $533K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $826K↑ buys↓ salesofficer NIELSEN III ROBERT — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RIVARD PHILIP — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Netherton Susan — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer NIELSEN III ROBERT — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cloninger Robert Michael — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cloninger Robert Michael — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shea Patrick James — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer CRAFT JASON — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer NIELSEN III ROBERT — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer NIELSEN III ROBERT — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MITTELSTAEDT RONALD J — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NIELSEN III ROBERT — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HANSEN ERIC — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LITTLE JAMES — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer TAN DEREK — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerSale700 @ $170.00$119K−17.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,250Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18RIVARD PHILIPofficerSale2,500 @ $166.57$416K−77.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open734Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13Netherton SusanofficerSale1,750 @ $166.00$291K−11.9% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open12,980Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-29NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerSale300 @ $173.10$52K−7.1% of holding−9.6%not yet — horizon still open3,950Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Cloninger Robert MichaelofficerSale2,573 @ $171.00$440K−17.8% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open11,904Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Cloninger Robert MichaelofficerSale238 @ $171.33$41K−2.0% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open11,666Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Shea Patrick JamesofficerSale7,500 @ $156.26$1.2M−27.5% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open19,737Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05CRAFT JASONofficerSale1,500 @ $156.59$235K−4.4% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open32,861Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerSale500 @ $155.56$78K−10.5% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open4,250Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerSale290 @ $151.00$44K−5.8% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open4,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $152.24$7.6M+19.9% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open301,017Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerSale337 @ $153.00$52K−6.3% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open5,040Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-30HANSEN ERICofficerSale6,000 @ $164.82$989K−31.0% of holding−14.6%not yet — horizon still open13,350Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-27LITTLE JAMESofficerSale2,605 @ $163.98$427K−7.0% of holding−10.9%not yet — horizon still open34,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04TAN DEREKofficerSale1,173 @ $171.03$201K−45.5% of holding+1.8%−15.2%1,404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

285 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30PIO DOMENICofficerOther acquisition959,188Form 4
2026-06-30CRAFT JASONofficerOther acquisition5432,915Form 4
2026-06-30BRADLEY AARONofficerOther acquisition428,624Form 4
2026-06-30Black Matthew StephenofficerOther acquisition1643,530Form 4
2026-06-09Shea Patrick JamesofficerGift10019,622Form 4
2026-06-08Shea Patrick JamesofficerGift1519,722Form 4
2026-04-01FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorWithheld for tax178154Form 4
2026-04-01FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorOption exercise332331Form 4
2026-04-01FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorOption exercise332332Form 4
2026-04-01FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorAward / grant419419Form 4
2026-04-01FLORNESS DANIEL LdirectorAward / grant663663Form 4
2026-02-18Whitney Mary AnnedirectorWithheld for tax56662,435Form 4
2026-02-18Shea Patrick JamesofficerWithheld for tax49427,237Form 4
2026-02-18LITTLE JAMESofficerWithheld for tax48237,000Form 4
2026-02-18MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorWithheld for tax346251,017Form 4
2026-02-18CRAFT JASONofficerWithheld for tax33234,361Form 4
2026-02-18Black Matthew StephenofficerWithheld for tax31743,514Form 4
2026-02-18NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerWithheld for tax3165,377Form 4
2026-02-18HANSEN ERICofficerWithheld for tax29719,350Form 4
2026-02-18RIVARD PHILIPofficerWithheld for tax2523,234Form 4
2026-02-18Netherton SusanofficerWithheld for tax25014,730Form 4
2026-02-18Cloninger Robert MichaelofficerWithheld for tax25014,477Form 4
2026-02-18BRADLEY AARONofficerWithheld for tax1228,582Form 4
2026-02-18BRADLEY AARONofficerOption exercise3108,704Form 4
2026-02-18Black Matthew StephenofficerOption exercise80443,831Form 4
2026-02-18RIVARD PHILIPofficerOption exercise6403,486Form 4
2026-02-18CRAFT JASONofficerOption exercise8420Form 4
2026-02-18Shea Patrick JamesofficerOption exercise1,2550Form 4
2026-02-18Cloninger Robert MichaelofficerOption exercise63514,727Form 4
2026-02-18LITTLE JAMESofficerOption exercise1,2240Form 4
2026-02-18BRADLEY AARONofficerOption exercise3100Form 4
2026-02-18NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerOption exercise8015,693Form 4
2026-02-18Netherton SusanofficerOption exercise63514,980Form 4
2026-02-18CRAFT JASONofficerOption exercise84234,693Form 4
2026-02-18LITTLE JAMESofficerOption exercise1,22437,482Form 4
2026-02-18NIELSEN III ROBERTofficerOption exercise8010Form 4
2026-02-18HANSEN ERICofficerOption exercise7540Form 4
2026-02-18Cloninger Robert MichaelofficerOption exercise6350Form 4
2026-02-18Black Matthew StephenofficerOption exercise8040Form 4
2026-02-18MITTELSTAEDT RONALD JdirectorOption exercise8780Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.